Maryland Gov: incumbent Ehrlich (R) trails O'Malley (D) by 16%

[skipos]

among those who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote in the Nov. 7 election.

"Maryland Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. starts his reelection campaign today significantly trailing Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, according to a new Washington Post poll. Although the state's voters give the governor good marks for the job he's done, they also appear inclined to return a Democrat to the governor's mansion."

"Ehrlich kicks off his campaign today at his boyhood home in the Baltimore suburb of Arbutus, attempting to become the state's first Republican governor in 50 years to serve a second term. But the poll shows why he is preparing to spend a record amount and why he is considered one of the nation's most endangered Republican governors."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062701833.html

[Polecat]

1. next poll

I expect the announcement and the naming of a female Lt. Guv. candidate will show a boost in the polls for Ehrlich. Probably not enough to overcome 16 pts immediately, but it's a long way off until November.

Let's face it, Ehrlich's politcal ads have been pro-Ehrlich to date. When the mud gets slung in both directions, the numbers gap will close. Don't tell me for a second that you believe that O'Malley hasn't been anti-Ehrlich in his ads thus far.

[aintitfunny]

2. Ehrlich's Ads may be pro Ehrlich - so far

but he has been playing dirty politics for the last few years with the fore knowledge that he would be running against O'Malley. He is scared and he should be. This campaign will be ugly, but O'Malley won't stoop to the lows Ehrlich will go to and has gone to.

Why the hell shouldn't O'Malley's ads be anti Mr. Photo op, do nothing Republican governor Ehrlich? He has not launched a personal attack, but he has and will continue to correctly point out Ehrlich's failures.

[Polecat]

3. it goes both ways

You're right. It will get ugly.

..and to be fair to Ehrlich, O'Malley has done an equally miserable job with the city.

[DaveinMD]

4. untrue

O'Malley has done a good job, its just a much bigger challenge.

[aintitfunny]

6. It will get ugly because Ehrlich has proved he is an

ugly campaigner. I feel no need to be fair to Ehrlich and wonder why you do. Simply stated, O'Malley has started a turnaround in Baltimore after 30+ years of decline and he has been widely recognized for it. O'Mally rolled up his sleeves and did something and there are clear improvements across the board. Ehrlich has done little but appear in tourism commercials and now he is sending his wife out to be his attack dog.

The race will invevitably tighten, but I have faith that O'Malley will gracefully handle the onslaught of attacks that I expect from Ehrlich's camp and the Maryland Republicans in general. Their desperation will be apparent.

[marlev623]

12. A very business friendly governor

Governor Erhlich has been on the wrong side of every important consumer issue. He's very business friendly. Let's review and compare: The Gov wanted to bring in Dubai to run the Port of Baltimore. The Mayor's position: against. The gov was so pro constellation energy that he vetoed the bill after the legislature had stated that the votes were there to override. The Mayor's position: he initiated the lawsuit that put the issue in Circuit Court. The gov was involved in an eminent domain issue in Montgomery County over the ill advised inter county connecter, backing developers. Studies on the inter county connecter have indicated the obvious, that it would be a enviornmental disaster that would have little benefit to the state in general. Recently, the Baltimore Sun reported that the Gov, once again favoring the developers, was proposing the sale of WATER on public land. These are the pro business highlights that should make any citizen comsumer's decision in november easy.

[nickshepDEM]

5. The gap will be + or - 3 by September.

This one is going to get ugly quick, ladies and gentlemen.

[DaveinMD]

7. it will get ugly

but the numbers are hard to add up for the Republicans. I'm thinking O'Malley wins by a 53-47 total.

[CC]

8. I call Ehrlich Gov. Whiner since he

has done nothing but whine about slots as far as I am concerned. Now he has a new person to whine about slots only she is pushing away the religious right in my county already. I am stuck in a red county but remind people here about the slots and how Whiner wouldn't trust MD voters to decide. Plus the Flush Tax and then remind them of the rise in registration fees for cars and license fees. People here are pissed about the flush tax so I use it to the dems advantage. Whatever works.:evilgrin:

[nickshepDEM]

9. The flush tax is Ehrlich's greatest accomplishment.

:)

[TrueFunkSoldier]

10. I'm much more confident about O'Malley's chances than Cardin/Mfume's

Unless something drastic happens where Bush gains a major boost and/or the Repugs rig the voting machines and/or engage in sinister tactics to depress voter turnout, I don't see O'Malley having many problems. He is insanely popular across most of the state except for the conservative Western/Southern areas. The only reasons why he's not even further ahead are because of the few undecided, it's early, and Ehrlich has more money in his coffers. After the primaries the guns will come out. Erhlich will up the ante and the personal attacks, but he needs to be very careful.

When Ehrlich engaged in mudslinging, denied knowledge and was later caught lying, it really hurt his image and poll numbers. O'Malley needs to stop him from campaigning as a moderate. O'Malley should piggyback on the successes of the Dems in the state legislature e.g., balanced budget, Baltimore's progress in economic development and growth. O'Malley should also capitalize on Bush's poor approval ratings and tie Ehrlich to Bush every chance he gets. Avoid the Repugs attempting to define him and all Dems as "tax spending liberals" or "intolerant racists." The only reason why Ehrlich won last time was because KKT was a god-awful candidate. O'Malley has the charisma, charm, support from power brokers, and reasonably good public policies that should allow him to beat Ehrlich. Focus on the rise in tuition and cuts in education that Ehrlich pushed for. He was extremely unpopular because of that issue, slots, siding with medical insurance companies, etc.

[smtpgirl]

11. I will cast my vote for the person who does not

HAVE FAKE HAIR.

'Nuff SAID