9/24/2006 - New Sun Poll

[nickshepDEM]

Baltimore Sun:

O'Malley: 50
Ehrlich: 44%

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Very similar results to the last three Rasmussen polls and the one Survey USA poll released last week. IMO, this is where the race stands as of right now, but like so many are saying it will tighten as the election draws closer. My guess is we will be statistically tied by election day and it will come down to GOTV.

*Ehrlich has 51% approval rating
*O'Malley has the solid support of his party's base. Liberals back him overwhelmingly - 81 percent to 11 percent - and Democrats back him by a 70 percent to 19 percent margin.
*"What you feel is actually happening," Ehrlich told the crowd that surrounded him at the Frederick County Fair last week. "We have the opportunity to win this race not close. We have the opportunity to have this race called at 8:01 p.m. on election night. That's where all the trend lines are going."
*But the Sun poll shows signs that this race is not unfolding for Ehrlich as the last one did. In 2002, Ehrlich was a relatively unknown congressman whose candidacy caught fire as doubts about Townsend began to take root. Within a few months, Ehrlich had erased a 27-percentage point deficit and brought the race to a dead heat by this point in the election cycle.
*Ehrlich said at a recent campaign stop that his goal for the county is 60 percent - "The first lady says 65," he joked. But the Sun poll shows he's now leading there by just 5 percentage points, 46 percent to 41 percent. At this point in 2002, the Sun poll found he was leading in the county 58 percent to 31 percent.
*Ehrlich got a narrow edge on which candidate is a leader, 44 percent to 41 percent, and he tied O'Malley - 40 percent to 40 percent - on a question of who would best be able to improve public schools.

Those are the highlights from the article, fwiw.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-te.md.poll24sep24,0,7304690.story?coll=bal-mdpolitics-headlines

[DaveinMD]

1. I predict

O'Malley will win by at least 53-47. More likely 55-45.

[Frances]

2. I so hope you are right

I have been waiting 4 long years to have Ehrlich defeated.

I moved to California right after that election. Of course, I'll vote against the Gropinator, but I don't think Sarbanes' protege Angelides has as good a chance of winning as O'Malley does. I wish it were otherwise.