Paul Sarbanes to Retire?

[hholli1]

say it ain't so and call him to say we need him right where he is!!!

I am beside myself so badly that I think I might have to start drinking early.

[hootinholler]

1. Apparently so.

Here's aGD thread discussing it.

I'm expecting big R money to start flowing in real soon.

-Hoot

[AuntiBush]

30. Dutch Ruppersberger Announcing Mar 14 might Run for his Seat

Rec'd email from Dutch Ruppersberger moments ago announcing his intentions to possibly run for the US Senate seat. If he does, I'm certain he can hold Baltimore County and others. With the wonderful Senator Sarbanes preparing to retire it's not a a bad idea to keep this thread out here now.

SNIP FROM DUTCH

On Tuesday, March 15th as I (Dutch) will announce the creation of my Senate Exploratory Committee to prepare for a possible run for US Senate.

The announcement will be made at 10 AM at the Texas Fire Station, 9835 York Road in Cockeysville.

Dutch Ruppersberger's Web site: http://dutchforcongress.com/

[Debbi801]

2. I just heard this on the radio, too...

Who do you think, other than Mfume, might step in to run for his seat?

Debbi

[nickshepDEM]

3. Possible Democratic and Republican candidates...

Potential Democratic candidates:

Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley
State Senator Ben Cardin
MoCo Executive Doug Duncan
Rep. Chris Van Hollen
Former NAACP President Kwesi Mfume

Potential Republican candidates:

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele
Rep. Wayne Gilchrest

[OnBackground]

4. Cummings

Sen. Sarbanes announcement does, indeed, make for an exciting 2006 race, for a change. While I share the skepticism that this will be competitive in the general (though Pipkin or Steele or someone else out of right field might have a chance for a change), the primary should feature a number of potentially strong candidates including the people previously mentioned, plus Rep. Elijah Cummings.

[nickshepDEM]

5. Hey, dummy.

Cardin is a Rep. not a State Senator. :crazy:

[DaveinMD]

6. Add Rep. Albert Wynn to the list

I'm sure he'll run. I wonder if Hoyer will run.

[nickshepDEM]

7. Dave is there any possible way that we could lose this seat?

I dont see how we could, but I guess you never know. Could Steele be a bigger threat than we think? He did deliver 30% of the black vote to Ehrlich back in 2002.

[DaveinMD]

9. Steele didn't deliver 30 percent of the black vote

I think they got 15-18 percent, where they normally get 10. It took an extremely week candidate for Ehrlich to sneak by with 52 percent. I think we should win as long as we run a real campaign. It also won't be a clear shot for the Republicans with everything else that will be going on.

[nickshepDEM]

10. Who will be the strongest Democratic candidate?

I like Van Hollen, but Im not sure if he will get the nod. If Rep. Albert Wynn is successful in the primary it could help us in the gubernatorial race by bringing out the African American vote.

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest seem like the only Republican candidates who could make it close. What do you think?

P.S. I dont know where I got the 30% number. It sounded kind of high, but I remember hearing that somewhere.

[DaveinMD]

11. that number

came from Republican propaganda. The exits actually showed 12, but that was off too based on the vote totals in PG County.

I love Van Hollen. Here's how it will shake out. Mfume is running. Of that I'm sure. He'll win the primary if he's the only African American Candidate. However, if Wynn runs that would open the door for Van Hollen or Steny Hoyer to win.

I don't think Steele would win. Gilchrist is fairly moderate, but I think it would take a lot for the Dem to lose the general election.

[nickshepDEM]

13. Thanks for the heads up, Dave.

Man, I was hoping Mfume wouldnt run. I have my doubts about him in a statewide general election.

[Freddie Stubbs]

26. We could if the right candidate is not nominated

Who would have thought that MD could elect a Republican as Governor? That happened because the Democratic nominee was such a poor candidate.

[Zuni]

29. Ben cardin is US congress now

he is my rep in DC

I would like O'Malley for Gov, Duncan or Van Hollen in Congress.

If any GOP gets in, I would like it to be Gilchrest, as he is one of the few liberal Republicans left

[nickshepDEM]

8. Welp, O'Malley has said he will not seek this seat..

"Although Senator Sarbanes will be difficult to follow, the Democratic Party will have a very strong candidate – whom I look forward to supporting. I will not seek his seat. We are laying the groundwork to run for governor."

http://www.friendsofomalley.org/

[mdguss]

12. Heard Kendall Ehrlich is thinking of running:

On the news tonight. And if one Ehrlich wasn't bad enough...O'Malley should run for this seat. He's well positioned to be a senator, and I frankly have my doubts about him beating Ehrlich.

[nickshepDEM]

14. O'Malley has posted on his website that he will not run for U.S. Senate.

[elshiva]

15. My hope is for Cardin or Mfume.

Got to be a good liberal to fill Sarbanes' shoes. Great man...

[aintitfunny]

16. Mfume or Cardin

but I think it would be a riot for the Governor to run against the First Lady and the Lt. Gov. I would enjoy that show.

[Mutley]

17. it's too bad

O'Malley won't run...

but i think i'd rather have him get the governor seat anyway...

[DaveinMD]

18. by the way

in the long run, this is great for the party as its going to allow some of the up and comers to move up and run for other offices. The old guard has been in place for quite some time.

[nickshepDEM]

20. Dave, do you think Mfume can win a statewide election?

Ive been argueing with some people that he could, but no matter what I say the disagree. Would he do that bad outside of MoCo., PG Co., and Baltimore City that he couldnt win?

[DaveinMD]

21. I think he could win

he has a very good story to tell. He just needs to run a proper campaign. I can't imagine a candidate doing worse outside the big three than Kathleen did and she still got 48 percent. Mfume would also get a much higher turnout in Baltimore City and Prince George's County. I think he'd have a very good chance of winning.

[mdguss]

31. Maybe to Infume winning:

Depends on who the nominee for Governor is. If it's a Baltimore-centric ticket with O'Malley and Infume, then neither of them would win. The Republicans could run against Baltimore--one of their favorite things to do--and the people who have moved out of the city can vote against it. I'm not saying that is right, I'm just saying that will happen.

If Duncan is the nominee, Infume could win. Duncan can hold the suburbs--something I'm totally unconvinced on O'Malley in the suburbs. Infume could drive turn-out in the city. In a way an Duncan/Infume ticket could be the strongest one we could put forward.

If O'Malley is the nominee, and though I'm voting for Duncan in the primary, he will probably be the nominee, Ruppersburger or Cardin would probably be the best candidate for Senate.

What's going to happen is two costly Democratic primaries, while the Republicans have a unified ticket, and can start wooing voters in August. Our late primary really hurts the party out of power. Both Ehrlich's could be elected next year...

[nickshepDEM]

19. A little bit of an update...

I just heard on the local news that Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger has formed an exploratory committee for the 2006 U.S. Senate race.

What are his chances in the primary and the general?

Also, I dont know if this is true or not, but doesnt he have some scandal that goes along with him? Didnt he have a bad gambling problem or something?

[DaveinMD]

22. his scandal

had to do with policy, not personal. He was going to take a bunch of people's homes as part of a development project.

[nickshepDEM]

24. What are his chances in the primary and general? n/t

[DaveinMD]

25. Dutch

would be a strong general election candidate because he is from the largest swing county in Maryland Politics. He'll have a tough time in the primary.

[Frances]

23. Doug Duncan is not running for the Senate

He is laying the groundwork for the governor's race according to an email he sent.

I don't know how I got on Doug's list. I am supporting O'Malley for governor.

I hope any of you in the know will keep us updated on what's happening in this race.

I thought Sarbanes was the greatest, by the way. I respect his decision but I'm sorry to see him go.

[AuntiBush]

27. It is so. Heartbreaking but he needs a rest.

Read somewhere out here that he can't take the inside turmoil. Dare say I blame he. He's been a pillar for our state, serving with dignity and one of the very few "not" party to the millionare club on that Hill.

I'm worried about who will replace him.

[OnBackground]

28. Wynn Out, Then Who?

And they're off!

Al Wynn announced, according to the Sun, that he would <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-mfume0314,1,2565253.story?coll=bal-home-headlines">defer to Mfume</a> his ambitions for the senate.

Republicans whose names have been <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-md.sarbanes13mar13,1,4961458.story?coll=bal-mdpolitics-headlines">added to the mix</a> are former U.S. Rep. Connie Morella, governor's wife Kendel Ehrlich and conservative state Sen. Alex X. Mooney.

[DaveinMD]

33. if Morella is the nominee

we are toast.

[nickshepDEM]

34. Why? She lost in her own congressional distric how can she win statewide?

[DaveinMD]

35. she lost yes

However, she got about 46 percent in an election in Montgomery County. Against someone from outside the county, she'd get at least 45 percent in the County. For Dems to win, they need to win 65 percent in the county. She'd be a very tough candidate, but it would be difficult for her to win a Republican primary.

[Frances]

36. I think Connie would defeat Steele

in a primary

[DaveinMD]

37. I don't know

I think she is far too liberal to win a Republican statewide primary.

[Frances]

38. But a lot of Repubs may not want an African American senator

Yes they voted for Ehrlich-Steele, but they knew Steele was on the ticket to tamp down the African American vote for KKT.

Montgomery County Dems voted for Connie in spite of her being a Republican because she was so nice. I think some Republicans might vote for her for the same reason. Plus she's a Catholic who raised her sister's children.

Gee-I sound like a Connie supporter. I worked for Lierman and Chris, so I am not for Connie. I just know that she is a formidable campaigner.

[DaveinMD]

32. Mfume

was going to primary Sarbanes. That's why he decided not to run. At least that is the rumor in political circles.