Here we go again: Obama, McCain locked in tight battle for Michigan

[Royal Oak Rog]

Source: Detroit News

Monday, July 21, 2008
Detroit News-WXYZ poll
Poll: Obama, McCain locked in tight battle for Michigan
Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit News Washington Bureau

Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a tight Michigan presidential race, according to a Detroit News-WXYZ Action News poll that illustrates why both camps consider this one of the battleground states that could determine who wins in November.

Obama has the support of 43 percent of likely Michigan voters, to 41 percent for McCain, according to the survey conducted for The News and WXYZ by Lansing's EPIC-MRA. That's well within the survey's 4 percentage point error margin. A potentially decisive 12 percent say they're still undecided, and 5 percent chose third-party candidates Bob Barr or Ralph Nader. "Just as we thought, it's going to be a close race in Michigan," said David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University.

The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average.

The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses.

Read more: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080...

[Royal Oak Rog]

1. Remember these are the guys who called the governors race a toss up

The day before the Governors race:
An EPIC-MRA poll released at 6 p.m. the night before the midterm election shows Jennifer Granholm holding a seven-point lead over Dick DeVos in the Michigan governor's race.

Granholm ended up crushing him by 15. I suspect Obama will do the same.

[maddogesq]

2. Yep. The problem with "undecided":

IMHO, that demographic has changed, and does NOT reflect the cell phone crowd. Yes, I am concerned about the electoral map (Screw the elctoral college anyway.), but I still think this election is Barrack's to loose. I don't think he will, unless the Bushies really have some nonsense up their slimy sleeves that we cannot even fathom.

[noonwitch]

3. If Romeny's McCain's running mate, I'd predict it a little closer

Obama would still win, just by not as large of a margin.

[MaryEllen71]

4. That idiot Kilpatrick

his behavior is feeding into the stereotype about black leaders and its going to cost Obama Michigan.

[Royal Oak Rog]

5. Not buying it

Obama has nothing to do with Kwame. Kwame in reality has more to do with the Republican Bush administration thumbing his nose at the law. But anyway, if you think that someone is gonna have the notion that all blacks are alike, so therefore they can't vote Obama, they weren't gonna vote for a black man any black anyway. Obama will win MI by 10 points or more, unless Iran bombs Ford Field.

[maddogesq]

6. Exactly. Don't buy into the MSM.

Example: Did anyone see the round table on the Judas George show (ABC) this morning? Yeah, OK, Detroit has a mayor problem, and Michigan guv is unpopular, blah, blah blah. The fact is the dynamic will always come down to the fact that polling this year will always be skewed toward McCain. In other words, if Barrack has a 5 point lead in some poll, my actual Dog brain numbers think that lead is 11-12 points. If the Fux Newz Network poll holds true that their respondents are 50-50, that is huge good news for Barrack because the Fixed News Net polling has always been skewed right, no matter how much one of their deities screws up.

[maddogesq]

7. Excellent resource to track all the polls.

Many of you know abut this, but this site has greatly beefed up it's displays over the last several years.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Their average of all polls today has Obama up by about 3 points.

Again, one should always be reminded that a lot of younger people have switch their main form of personal voice communication to the cell phone. I have yet to receive a call from a polling outfit on my cell. I wonder when that day will come.

[Demeter]

8. According to the Daily Widget--Michigan Doesn't Get Polled All that Often

Not by reputable pollsters, anyway.

Maybe because they are afraid to ask!

[dzhuang]

9. Not Much of a Lead...

Obama could very well lose the state. Michigan is a swing state and Oakland County, specifically, is the swing county (perhaps). There is a lot going on politically, and Obama will seriously have to keep his momentum going to win over the state. Fortunately for him, the youth are pretty active in his campaign. You can see them everywhere.