Obama Makes Gains in Macomb After Conventions and is Ahead Statewide in Michigan

[SharonRB]

This is great news!


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Related Research

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September 26, 2008. Washington, DC. Entering the first debate of the presidential contest, Barack Obama has significantly improved his standing in one of the key bellwether counties in the country – Macomb County, Michigan.

In the last report, released at the start of the Democratic Convention, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps found that Obama was struggling to consolidate his base in this white, blue-collar suburb and concluded that winning back these working class Democratic defectors would be a key goal for the Democratic nominee. The media and the major candidates have traveled there to make their case and tilt this key state.

A new survey conducted in Macomb shows that Obama has made great progress doing just that: He has moved from a 7-point deficit to a dead-heat with McCain (43-44 Obama-McCain), now matching John Kerry’s performance in 2004.

The key has been winning back disaffected Democrats. A month ago, Obama was able to win just 71 percent of Democrats; He has now boosted that number to 80 percent, many of them coming at the expense of Ralph Nader whose support has fallen from 8 to 3 percent. Moreover, these gains have come in some of his most problematic demographics:



White Non-College Democrats: up 12 points

Moderate or Conservative Democrats: up 9 points

White union members: up 12 points

Obama has also made large strides on a number of key personal traits. In August, only 48 percent of Macomb voters said Obama was “on your side” – that number is up to 57 percent. Similarly, the percentage saying that Obama “shares your values” has risen from 51 to 58 percent.

Finally, Obama has begun closing the gap with McCain on security issues, something we identified in August as a key roadblock to Obama sealing the deal with Democratic defectors. Macomb voters still believe that McCain will do a better job on Iraq and national security, but Obama has shaved these margins by 9 and 13 points, respectively.

Barack Obama has closed the gap in Macomb County, and this puts him one step closer to claiming Michigan’s all-important 17 electoral votes in November.

Obama is also ahead statewide in Michigan – according to a second Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps poll conducted at the same time as the survey in Macomb. Obama is taking 49 percent, compared to 42 percent for McCain, 4 for Nader and 1 percent for Barr. These are important pieces in Obama being able to create a winning Electoral College map.

Visit our website to download the full survey results


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[MichiganVote]

1. I'm not surprised. I think a majority of residents have finally made up their minds.

[PassingFair]

2. All's I knows is....

We put up two Obama signs.

My husband and I had a bet as to how
long they would remain posted on our
semi-busy boulevard.

He thought they would be taken over
night, I gave them 2 days.

10 days later, they are STILL THERE.

And several people have asked if we
can get more for them!

[noonwitch]

3. If he wins Macomb, he will win Michigan

Macomb is a swing county, with a history of some racist politicians (former Warren Mayor Mark Steenburgh comes to mind, along with wife-beating, drunk-driving former state rep David Jaye). We have many republican mayors and judges, but the Sheriff and Prosecutor are both democrats. I live in the south part, which is Sandy Levin's district, but the north part is more GOP territory.

If Obama can win in Macomb, that is more telling than even Oakland County.

I highly doubt Obama will carry the old dutch areas, especially Ottawa County and rural parts of Kent County, but I would say that he could probably get a good deal of votes in the actual city of Grand Rapids and maybe Kentwood and Wyoming, but probably not in EGR or Ada/Cascade.

Obama is very popular in Traverse City, if not in the immediate surroundings.