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There are a couple of reasons ,IMO, as to why it happened. First and formeost and one I won't go into detail here is the state of the economy. The second is retirements and the term limit law.
Congressman Stuapk, who had won previous elections in the 60%-70% range and already had a sizeable war chest at the beginning of the year, announced his retirement. Most sources I've read considered Stupak to be unbeatable and his seat to be safe for Dems had he decided to run again. After Stupak announced his intentions to retire, the district was reclassified from "safe" to "toss up". State Senator Mike Prusi had to retire because of the term limit law as did State Representive McDowell. Thus three seats lost their incumbents. State Rep. Mike Lahti decided to run for Prusi's open seat instead of running for re-election in his own district which thus opened another seat. State Reps Lindberg & Judy Nerat ran for re-election in their respective districts. The election results were as follows:
Gary McDowell (D) lost in the Mi-01 race... open seat held by Stupak (D) Mike Lahti (D) lost the 38th state Senate race...open seat held by Mike Prusi (D) Scott Dianda (D) lost the 110th state House race....open seat held by Mike Lahti(D) Incumbent Judy Nerat(D) lost the 108th state House race Incumbent Steve Lindberg (D) held on in the 109th state House race. Dick Timmer (D) lost in the 107th state House race....open seat held by Gary McDowell(D)
Out of 6 seats held by Dems in this region of Michigan, 5 switched to Republican. It is my view that had Stupak decided not to retire and if Prusi and McDowell had not been forced out by the term limit law, The Repubs would have, at best, defeated only one Dem and that would have been Judy Nerat.
Here is what the ballot would have looked like had their been no retirements:
Bart Stupak-United States House of Representatives, Michigan District 1 Mike Prusi-38th State Senate Gary McDowell-107th State House Judy Nerat-108th State House Steve Lindberg-109th State House Mike Lahti-110th State House
Each and every one of the above would have been an incumbent.
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