2006 Senate race: drafting a Congressperson == BAD IDEA

[no name no slogan]

It's a VERY bad idea to draft a current DFL Congressperson to run for Dayton's seat. Here's why.

1 - The Power of Seniority
All our current DFL Reps have been in the House for several terms. The House power structure is built on seniority. With it comes priviledges and power that brings access to federal $$ and projects and better service for their respective districts. If a sitting Rep. were to step aside and run for Senate, s/he would lose ALL of this.

McCollum would have the least to lose, as she's been there the shortest, but even in that short time she has risen through the ranks. She's a regional whip for the Democratic Caucus, a high-ranking member of the DCCC, and a protegé of Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Even though she's a 'junior' member of the DFL Congressional delegation, she still has a lot to lose.

2 - The Power of Incumbency
All our Dem Congresscritters are multi-term incumbents, and are effectively "safe" from any GOP challenge. If one of our Reps decides to run for Senate, we'd have to find a new candidate to fill that Rep seat.

The only district where we'd have to worry about a Republican challenge if a Rep were to run for senate would be the 7th, where Colin Peterson has been the longtime rep. This area is fairly conservative (at least by MN standards), and the right GOP challenger could win this seat. Given the current gap in #s in the House, we can ill afford to give up one seat.

3 - lack of statewide appeal/focus
This one is not as big an issue as the other two, but it still needs to be addressed.

Reps tend to have very high name recognition and approval ratings in their own districts, but outside of them their appeal can be limiting. In particular, in Minnesota, it is VERY hard for metro area-based candidates to appeal to Greater MN. There's still a sense of snobbery/elitism associated with many 'big-city pols' and the 'cultural elitists' in rural MN, and any candiate from the Twin Cities will have to overcome this. Granted, it can be done, but it's just another hill that has to be climbed in order to win.

This is just my $.02, of course. Your mileage may vary.

[Demrock6]

1. Very good points.

I was debating myself on the same issues as well. I think Betty could do good in a senate campaign, but starting to worry about could she win, and what could we lose?

It was a while back but does anybody remember the results from 2000 Minnesota senate race? That was my first time voting. Who was Dayton up against? Did he win by a big margin?

We should also look at picking a person who will beat Kennedy. It is almost certain he will be running for that seat. I know a lot of people don't see Kennedy as much of a threat but that could lead to a mindset leading to failure. He agrees with Bush 98% of the time and if the GOP worked on it he could have a good chance of winning. Epically with rural Minnesota.

Here is another kind of stupid question on my part. In senate races is it just a popular vote wins? Or do we have a mini-electoral collage with counties?

[no name no slogan]

2. Good questions

In 2000, Dayton beat Grams by a fairly close margin, IIRC. The main difference was that Dayton spent his personal fortune on the race, and Grams couldn't get close.

Dayton also effectively "bought" his primary victory, too. Janezych (the endorsed DFLer) couldn't raise nearly enough $$ to beat Dayton, who ran a very media-oriented campaign.

I agree, Kennedy will be the nominee, and it could be a tough race. Rove has his eye on Dayton's seat, and he wants it so bad he can taste it. Nevertheless, Kennedy is really not that popular, if you look at his re-elect numbers. He's a three-term incumbent now, and he should be easily winning re-election by 10%+. Last time around, he only beat Wetterling by 5%-6%, and she was a political neophyte.

Kennedy is beatable. But it will be a tough fight. In fact, somebody like Patty Wetterling may be a good person to beat him. She's got name recognition, is not a "politician", and ran a good race against him in '04 for congress. She may be worth considering, especially if we're looking for an "underdog".

Senators are elected by a direct popular vote. Originally in the Constitution, they were to be appointed by every state's legislature. However that law was changed a while ago (don't recall exact date/constitutional amendment).

[goodhue]

3. 2000 election

Dayton beat Grams 48.8% to 43.3% (5.8% for independent Gibson). Whoever has the highest statewide popular vote wins.

See general election results here:
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20001107/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&R=S&P=A

Also, here are 2000 primary results . . .
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20000912/Static/Statewide_R=A&P=A.htm
MARK DAYTON 178972 41.29
MIKE CIRESI 96874 22.35
JERRY R. JANEZICH 90074 20.78
REBECCA YANISCH 63289 14.60

[Demrock6]

4. Thanks for the info!

One thing about drafting a Congressperson that could work for us is that if they do put up Kennedy he will have to face the same three issues listed above.

[dpbrown]

5. Caveat: A "US" Congressperson

Becky Lourey is still my favorite dark horse.

DPB

[no name no slogan]

6. Right

by Congress, I mean the US Congress. The state 'congress' is usually referred to as the Legislature or Assembly in PoliSci studies, depending on which state you're in (at least that PoliSci degree was good for something). :)

I'm waiting to see if Lourey will jump in. Of course, I've also heard rumblings in the Wetterling camp that she may run for Senate instead of CD6. Stange days indeed...

[dpbrown]

9. Ciresi's the most likely "tier one" candidate for Senate

Hatch for Governor
Klobuchar for AG
Wetterling for CD6
McCollum for CD4

These are not necessarily my personal preferences, but this is what the conventional wisdom is saying right now.

[stackhouse]

10. Ciresi just make me puke..

anyone need an ambulance chaser Ciresi is your man, the only reason they'll run him is to try to get at the tabbaco money he scamed. however maybe he should run for MAG he love suing everyone for profit
and keep Klobuchar for CA is suit's her that way she does not have to do nothing except continue to do that little amy carter cute rutine!!

[Krupskaya]

11. "Little Amy Carter cute routine"?

WTF is that supposed to mean?

[no name no slogan]

15. That sounds about right, although I'm not a fan of Hatch or Ciresi

Ciresi's in the best spot to raise $$$ right now, and he's got a lot of support among the party heirarchy. However, he's got a lot of minuses going for him that Rove & Pals will no doubt exploit as best they can.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't mind Wetterling going for the Senate seat. IMHO she's have a better chance doing that than running for Congress. She's got statewide appeal and name recognition and would do better in the cities and range than Kennedy could.

It's easier for 'non-politician' types to run for the Senate and win, too, and Wetterling has that appeal in spades.

I myself am staying out until we have a better picture of the field. It's way too complicated right now.

[Eric J in MN]

7. If Betty McCollum runs, we can keep the St. Paul district (nt)

nt

[no name no slogan]

14. No doubt about that, but we lose her seniority

We'll definately keep the 4th, no doubt. But we'll be "starting over" again with a new congressperson for the second time in ten years. This is not the best situation to be in, especially for such a Democratic district.

The House runs on seniority and patronage. The more seniority you have (majority OR minority-- it makes no difference), the more access you get to federal $$$, and the more you can help your constituents. Unlike the Senate, where a freshman can make a big difference, it's very difficult for a first-termer to have a major impact on legislation. Your first term is spent 'learning the ropes', and oftentimes sitting on a committee where you have no real power over your local district.

I don't question for a second that she'd be a good Senator. I know she would. But winning a statewide race, especially as an urban Democrat, is much harder now than it was even a few years ago.

[stackhouse]

8. oh water girl....go fetch.....

"She's a regional whip for the Democratic Caucus, a high-ranking member of the DCCC, and a protegé of Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi

first whats the great and mighty big deal about Nancy Pelosi? in the current construct of the house, she has no real power. look the only reason she (a woman) is there is because her spot is an eronious one if the spot of Minority Leader hade any real meaning Nancy Pelosi would not be there

ALL THIS JUST MEANS IS as long as Betty doesn get any ideas..and remains SOME ONE'S PAPER AND WATER GIRL!!! told what when and how, no one will threatend betty or her spot ....like i said what a waste of Betty's talents
but then again betty did not support deanbrain so she'll be stuck being SOME ONE'S PAPER AND WATER GIRL 4-ever

[Dickie Flatt]

12. Huh?

but then again betty did not support deanbrain so she'll be stuck being SOME ONE'S PAPER AND WATER GIRL 4-ever

What?

[no name no slogan]

13. McCollum is in the DEM LEADERSHIP.

And yes, she does have "real power", as you say. The Dems may be in the minority, but they STILL have power over several things. Pelosi may be the current minority leader, but she will not be forever. And when she steps down, chances are the next leader is going to come from the existing Dem leadership in the House-- meaning McCollum has a very good chance to become not only Minority Leader, but Speaker.

Part of being in the party leadership is that you work your way up the leadership ladder. NOBODY starts out as speaker/minority leader their first term-- NOBODY. The House runs on seniority, and no matter who you are, you pay your dues before you get any "real" power. So no matter who gets elected to the House, s/he will do time as somebody's "water girl", as you say.

The biggest job of a US Rep is to bring home federal $$$ to her/his district. Being in the leadership (whether majority or minority) means that you get first dibs on a lot of this $$$. McCollum is now in a position to do that for St. Paul-- just as Vento was before he retired after many terms in the House.

Yes, McCollum could run for Senate and we'd keep the 4th, but our Rep. from the 4th would have to start at the bottom of the ladder, again, for the second time in a decade. Although it's better now than it was, say, 40 years ago, leadership in the House does not turn over that often. It is very difficult for a new member to get any sort of power as a freshman, or even a 2nd- or 3rd- termer. The fact that McCollum has come this far already speaks volumes of her, IMHO.

but then again betty did not support deanbrain

And what, exactly, does this have to do with anything :wtf:?

McCollum is a Congressperson. She does NOT work for the DNC, and doesn't have to follow its rules or wishes.

Oh, and if you're looking to hate on Deanies, you're barking up the wrong tree. Check with anybody else here, and you'll know quite well where my loyalties were in 2004. :eyes:

[stackhouse]

16. ah yes the congressional carrot tease...

first of all if one has not figured out ...pelosi cant do squat rais one dime without selling half the poor folks down the river. i almost gaurantee "she" woudnt be there if the dems were in the majority a dude would be ...


as i see it betty would have to wait 50 years before she would even get a snif of a minority leader role...case in point how long has sabo been there ...and has been passed over time and time agian..beside betty represents minnesota...minnesotan's allways get teased and screwed...in hopes to get federal scraps off the masters table minnesotan's have never got any minority or majority leadership seats it allways goes to a congressperson from some big coastal state...the only thing i see is pelosi doing is holding a rubber carrot in front of betty promising the chair then ripping it out at the last second for another billion to california and with bush doing his thing minnesota will be lucky to see a million for anything

so the question of ??? is will betty continue to be nancys paper and water girl or will she get hip and go for a senate seat. if betty runs and wins she wount have to kiss nancys shoes and be at the big girls table with barbara, diane and hillary we need a woman to represent us you don't get picked for squat when your nancy's water girl

as to pepermint patty and little amy carter for senate??...no way

[no name no slogan]

17. Once again, what are you talking about?

All you're doing is calling other Democrats names, like somehow that will affect who is endorsed.

as i see it betty would have to wait 50 years before she would even get a snif of a minority leader role...case in point how long has sabo been there ...and has been passed over time and time agian..

First of all, has Sabo ever ran for minority leader? FYI, it is an elected position within the caucus, similar to Speaker of the House-- you don't get "appointed" minority leader, you have to campaign for it and be elected to it. It is just like any other race, only you're being elected by your fellow Representatives in your party. If Sabo hasn't run for the job, it's very unlikely he'd get elected to it.

Like I said before, McCollum is on the rise in the leadership. She DOES have power in the caucus; however, you ignore this simple fact, instead calling McCollum a "water girl" for Pelosi-- hardly the language I'd use to describe a popular and powerful leader.

As far as the leadership roles going to somebody from a "big coastal state", check your history. Newt Gingrich was from Georgia (13 Electoral Votes), Tip O'Neil was from Massachusetts (13 EVs), Dennis Hastert is from Illinois (21 EVs).

Following your logic, all the speakers and minority leaders would be from California (55 EVs), New York (31 EVs) or Texas (34 EVs). If we go back a little over a quarter century (to 1976), only Jim Wright (D-Tx) would fit the bill-- and he was only speaker for six years. Once again, your logic doesn't hold up.

Come back with some facts next time instead of name-calling-- maybe you'll convince more people that McCollum is the right choice, instead of alienating more potential supporters.

[jenibek73]

18. Would love to see Wetterling

My first DU post! I have been lurking for awhile!

I live in Kennedy's district, he really did not win by much, and this is supposed to be a very Repub area, due to redistricting. I would love to see Patty go against him statewide. Many people wanted to live in this area to cast a vote, and it wasn't for Kennedy! However, she needs to develop a platform and some political know-how. No matter what kind of money BuchCo will put into it, people do not like the attacks on Patty. The question is, does she want to run? Who is planning to go up against Pawlenty? People are getting disgusted, these races can be won!

[dpbrown]

19. Welcome to DU!

Thanks for your thoughts!

DPB

[KitchenWitch]

20. Welcome to DU

Keep posting!

[hermetic]

21. Hi and Welcome to DU!

Always love to see more Minnesotans getting on board.
:hi:

[no name no slogan]

22. Great thoughts! and welcome to DU!

I agree with you re: Patty's platform. That was her weakest point in the '04 race, IMHO. Given a couple of years, she should be in very good shape to go against Kennedy, no matter what he's running for in '06.

:hi:

[CatholicEdHead]

23. Since you live in the 6th

what are Michelle Bachmann's realistic odds? She is touting her anti-gay marriage ammendment and to try to have the state opt out of No Child Left Behind (the Good Republican-Bad Republican thing).

Those are pretty much divicive issues, so, will 6 really buy into those issues?