A Christmas Present for Montana Democrats

[illflem]

A new independent poll released on Christmas Day in Montana likely robbed Sen. Conrad Burns (R) of his holiday cheer.

The survey, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, showed that the avalanche of stories detailing Burns's ties to disgraced Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff is having a considerable effect on how he is perceived in voters' minds.

Fully 58 percent of those tested said they were either very or somewhat concerned with Burns's relationship with Abramoff. Thirty-three percent said they were not concerned. (Republicans are likely to note that the result is somewhat skewed given that respondents were read a paragraph of information detailing the nature of the dealings between the two men before being asked their level of concern.) National Democrats are sure to be emboldened by these numbers nonetheless, having already run two television ads earlier this year seeking to tie Burns to Abramoff. (Watch the ads on the state party's Web site.)

Head-to-head matchups between Burns and his two main Democratic adversaries have narrowed since Mason-Dixon last polled in the state in May. Burns leads state Auditor John Morrison (D) 46 percent to 40 percent, down considerably from the 49 percent to 35 percent lead the senator held in May. Burns carried a more comfortable 49 percent to 35 percent edge over state Senate president Jon Tester (D), though that margin too has shrunk from the 24-point bulge Burns held in May.

The Mason-Dixon poll was in the field Dec. 13-15, testing 625 registered voters with a 4 percent margin of error.

Burns narrowly escaped defeat in 2000 when then little-known farmer Brian Schweitzer (D) came within four percent of ousting the incumbent. Given Schweitzer's gubernatorial victory last year and Democrats' gains in the state legislature, Burns is a major Democratic target in 2006. He ranks fifth on The Fix's most recent ranking of Senate races in play.

http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2005/12/a_christmas_pre.html

[havocmom]

1. Talk here in the GOP dominated eastern part of the state has been hard

on ol Conrad. The people are plenty pissed. Talk is he best not even come home let alone run again.