Secretary of State race, Ross Miller (D) vs. Danny Tarkanian (R)

[Awsi Dooger]

Could be pivotal in terms of how this state votes on the presidential level in '08 and foreseeable. Tarkanian is pretending voter fraud is rampant and is basing his entire campaign around stricter requirements to show ID and register.

Meanwhile, when asked about examples of voter fraud on the local political show yesterday, Tarkanian mumbled something about reports in out of state papers, and the only local one he mentioned was a couple he and his wife encountered while canvassing door to door two years ago who claimed they never voted despite lists saying they had. That was it. No followup by the host. No indication Tarkanian was so outraged he took their names and checked on the matter.

Two famous sons. Miller's dad was Democratic governor Bob Miller ('91-'99) and Tark's dad of course coached the Runnin' Rebel basketball team. I'm worried the Tarkanian name will pull support in Clark County and change the statewide dynamic Miller needs as a Democrat, winning huge in Las Vegas then cutting his losses elsewhere in the state.

Miller, 30, has been considered the favorite in this race but polls have conflicted, one showing Tarkanian ahead 44-32 while another gave Miller a 38-29 edge. I noticed John Walsh is featured in new commercials running on behalf of Miller, emphasizing that law enforcement is backing Miller.

http://www.rossmiller2006.com/

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Still tight

I wanted to update the polling on this: Ross Miller leads 39-38 according to a Mason-Dixon poll last week.

I feel good about this race since Miller's ads have been very impressive and much more frequent than Tarkanian's over the last two weeks. At least here in Las Vegas. The number of commercials was basically even in early to mid October but I barely see Tarkanian commercials anymore. Perhaps Tarkanian has been targeting northern Nevada or different outlets, but on the major networks and cable news channels it's been all Ross Miller. John Walsh of Americas Most Wanted has appeared in several commercials backing Miller. Apparently former governor Bob Miller, Ross' son, worked closely with Walsh and became a friend.

Other races to watch are attorney general, where Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is expected to defeat Don Chairez fairly easily, and state treasurer in which Democrat Kate Marshall is in a tight campaign against Mark DeStefano, who might be a slight favorite.

Right now Republicans hold all six statewide offices so picking off 2 or 3 would be excellent. Lieutenant governor appears out of reach.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Victories in four statewide races

OK, we lost the big races and frustratingly close in three of them, Dina Titus, Tessa Hafen and Jill Derby.

Hafen's loss was particularly tough to take. That may have been the finest campaign I've seen in two decades. Porter had nothing to run on do he shamelessly labeled Hafen a carpetbagger, even though she is a born and raised third generation Nevadan.

Democrats took back four of the six statewide seats, a great result after holding none of them the last four years. Ross Miller won by about 9 points, Cortez Masto by huge margin for attorney general, Kate Marshall pulled off about 5 point win for treasurer, and Kim Wallin narrowly won the controller race by maybe 2 points.

Marijuana failed. And I was pleasantly surprised when the more restristive anti-smoking measure passed while the phony version was defeated. A Minimum wage increase passed easily.

[jen4clark]

3. While disappointed that Derby and Titus

lost, I am thrilled beyond belief that Miller and Cortez Masto won Sec of State and Atty General!!! That in itself is HUGE!!!

Good article in Nevada Appeal re: Heller/Derby:


Congressman Heller

Pundits: Derby ran probably the best campaign in the state this year
http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/20061108/NEWS/111080107

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Thanks for the link

Jill Derby ran a surreal race to come within 5 points in that district. Her TV commercials weren't shown here so I didn't get a feel for Derby's style until hearing her radio spots a few weeks ago. They were offbeat and memorable.

On primary night I rooted like hell for wingnut Sharron Angle to defeat Heller. She failed by a few hundred votes. You could tell Derby was a great candidate with a big shot to defeat Angle. Heller is an easy smiling guy with some moderate tendencies. I'm worried he may follow Gibbons' path and seek higher office after holding that district for a few cycles.

I don't think there's any question Derby and Hafen ran superior campaigns to Titus and Carter. In fact, I'm not sure Derby or Hafen couldn't have defeated Gibbons.