So have we given up on Carter?

[TheFarseer]

Some people were trying to act like this was possible maybe a month or two ago and there were some polls with single digit deficits, but I haven't heard anything about this in a while, except Carter's debating was not so good. I just wondered if anyone had any reason to believe this was still an opportunity?

[Awsi Dooger]

1. The race was never in play

I got ripped on many sites for posting that. That didn't mean it wasn't completely accurate.

Nevada is the most simple state in the country to handicap politically. There is the Las Vegas area, with more than 70% of the vote, then the rest of the state. The only Democratic blueprint is to win Clark County by enough of a margin to hold off the Republican tilt of the remainder of the state. Since John Ensign is from Las Vegas and used to represent the heavily Democratic NV-1, he has unusual strength in Clark County for a Republican, and therefore his statewide edge is massive. It would take an exceptionally strong Democratic nominee to defeat Ensign. That's what the netroots doesn't seem to get. You can't merely look at Ensign as a mediocre senator in a state slowly trending our way. The dynamic of the race heavily favors Ensign.

In Carter's first debate his answers were too brief. He was also underfunded and off the air for quite a while. Plus he had the health problem. But give credit to him. This race wasn't lost. Ensign is a very tough out, much less vulnerable than we want to believe. Jack Carter spent plenty of time campaigning in rural Nevada and that may pay dividends to other Democratic candidates, and in the future.