Why New Hampshire Will Pick the President - Boston Globe Magazine

[dnbmathguy]

They stand in the intersection, drenched by what is left of a hurricane that blew itself out a thousand miles to the south. If you want to stand in the divided political heart of the country, stand with them there, on a little feeder road that leads onto the campus of Daniel Webster College in Nashua, the remnants of a great storm soaking through your shoes, and watch them work the intersection, both sides, in a political year that has been a tempest from the moment it began.

-snip-

And so it goes -- democracy, that is -- on one wet morning in New Hampshire, a place that seems as split down the middle as the rest of the country, a battleground in our own backyard.

More than ever before, New Hampshire is being courted. It's been wooed with television ads. It's been romanced by surrogates, all come to whisper or to shout their blandishments into the state's willing ears. John F. Kerry's daughter in Exeter one week, talking about college tuition, and George W. Bush's wife in Manchester two weeks later, talking about health care. Vice President Dick Cheney was in Nashua two days before the crowd gathered at the tiny intersection. Now comes the fellow looking to take his place.

More: http://www.boston.com/news/globe/magazine/articles/2004/10/17/why_new_hampshire_will_pick_the_president/

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. kick

[SheilaT]

2. Oh, good, I'm so glad

that none of the rest of us count. We'll just wait and see how New Hampshire votes and I can sleep late on November 2nd.

How I despise the electoral college system that means my vote really and truly doesn't count.

[Cha]

3. Silly me..I thought it was

Ohio or Maine!

Do not underestimate the power of Hilary Cleveland!

"New Hampshire does not get the battleground state attention that Ohio and Pennsylvania receive, but if Hilary Cleveland has anything to do with it, Bush will not get four more years to conduct war on Iraq. On her New London kitchen table is a porcelain bowl from China, a gift from Barbara and George H.W. Bush. Her late husband was Colgate Cleveland, 10-term Republican Congressman from the Granite State. Hilary Cleveland is chairwoman of the GOP Women for Kerry Steering Committee, organized on Sept. 10.

“This war is very different,” she told The Boston Globe. “I think he is usurping an authority he does not have. He has alienated our allies, destroyed our relations in the Muslim world and actually invited terrorists into Iraq. I think Kerry is our best hope to get us out of Iraq and reestablish diplomatic relations in the world.”

This presidential campaign comes down to this: Is your loved one still in Iraq? Tell me again, why are we there? Are the docks, bridges, tunnels and subways secure? Are you working? Do you have health care? Are your pension benefits or Social Security check what you earned? Those questions are not just political rhetoric, or grist for a slick spinmeister’s mill. They are about the reality of working people’s lives."



http://www.pww.org/article/articleview/5779/1/232/

[maxanne]

4. another article

about Hillary Cleveland here http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0912-06.htm

[FightinNewDem]

5. Disappointing article

At first, pierce acknowledges that New Hampshire has changed enormously over the past decade. From there, he goes on to quote a collection of golden oldies, from Arnie Arnesen to Tom Rath to Hillary Cleveland. There are a number of newer elected officials, journalists, and activists who could have offered something; where are John DeJoie, Karen Hicks and James Pindell? I guess they weren't in the dusty rolodex.

[maxanne]

6. good point FND

I guess he couldn't reach any Shaheens. :eyes:

After this election, they'll find it harder to keep the focus on the tired old party hacks. There are going to be some new kids on the block - and wait till 2006 - I'll be one of them!

[FightinNewDem]

7. 2006, anyone?

I heard an interesting rumor that the hacks have been bickering among themselves.

Apparently, a lot of the Kathy Sullivan/Ray Buckley crowd were underwhelmed by the candidacy of "chosen one" Justin Nadeau and decided to quietly help Pete Duffy (Bob Bruce, being a decent, unbossed chap, was apparently not an option). The Shaheens are obviously not happy, since Justin was their creation.

Here in Manchester, what is striking is how little support Nadeau has from party loyalists. There are tons of homes with Kerry, Lynch, and Buckley signs, sometimes joined by a state senate or rep candidate, but nothing for Nadeau (or Granny D, but that isn't as surprising). Making matters worse, many Jewish Democrats are sitting this one out, unhappy with Nadeau's sometimes stridently anti-Israel stance.

There are a number of Democrats who are very quietly looking at the 1st District in 2006. Bradley is no great shakes, but Nadeau has basically given him a free ride. Maybe one of the other folks could shake up the race.

[alevensalor]

8. Why isn't that surprising?

Why is there so little support for Granny D? Do people really think Judd Gregg is that good a guy, that they won't support ANYONE who would replace him?

~A!

[FightinNewDem]

11. Judd=Creep

Judd is, in my opinion, a loathsome creep. When he tried refused to let a woman diagnosed with cancer and saddled with medical expenses back out of a real estate contract, he showed that he is really something less than human.

That said, however, Granny D is just too much for many people to handle. Her work on campaign finance reform was inspiring, but her Senate race has too often been an excercise in oddball, Naderish far left dogma. This tone, which often comes across as condescending, is a surefire way to simultaneously scare off both suburban independents and more conservative blue collar Democrats.

On top of it all, she is still 94 years old, and this presents a credibility barrier for a lot of people. While she is far sharper than many people half her age, she is not as sharp in person as you would guess from her media appearances.

[alevensalor]

12. I knew that

her age was at issue, but I haven't seen the far-left dogma you're talking about. Can you be a little more specific?

Thanks,
~A!

[FightinNewDem]

14. One example

One example jumps right to mind. A week or two ago, she compared Israel's actions towards the Palestinians to the Nazi's extermination of European Jews.

Now, Israel is not without fault; Sharon is a thug. But the Palestinian leadership is,if anything, worse, and israle's actions are in no way comparable to Germanys.

[alevensalor]

16. I am tired

of people comparing anyone to the Nazis. It seems to be just a quick, easy political way to assassinate someone.

~A!

[maxanne]

9. ha - no surprises there

Pete Duffy is perfect for them. He spoke at a meeting here and went on and on about the military. He'd be someone they loved. A bore. Poor Bob Bruce is too smart, and too much of a wild card for the party hacks to fall in love with.

There seems to be a lot of Nadeau support up here - of course some of us haven't forgotten that the Jebster ran as a "Moderate" and has proven to be anything but - and some of us will NEVER forgive him for the sexist, agist ads he ran against Martha Fuller Clark in 2002. Those ads alone will force me to vote for Nadeau - but then, I'm holding my nose a few times in the voting booth this year.

I sent the state party office an email several weeks ago, asking why they weren't calling for an investigation into the fundraising practices of the Speaker of the House, Gene Chandler - and if not, then why not. Oddly enough I haven't heard from them....

[FightinNewDem]

10. Who? Us? Sleazy???

Oddly enough, Duffy is actually kind of a dovish guy; he was abig Alan Cranston supporter back in the 1980s.

As for why the Democratic hierarchy has been so quiet about the ethical foibles of Chandler and Dick Flynn, the answer is simple: too many of them are equally guilty.

Mary Chambers, Peter Burling and Lou D'Allesandro have all vaccumed up gobs of lobbyist cash and used it for personal expenses, so the party hacks don't have a leg to stand on. With Flynn, so many of the usual suspects are either chummy with Flynn or are craven cowards, fearful that Dick might deny them a 3-digit license plate, that they fold at the first sign of trouble.

Thankfully, a few Democrats are fighting the good fight:
http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/node/view/666

...and apparently Rep. Jim Splaine is putting together some reform-oriented legislation as well.

[maxanne]

13. at least all the other Hoovers

have been smart enough to report the cash they've been sucking up. Chandler's claims that "he didn't know" are really pathetic - and not going over well in his district. Naturally Crow "armed at airports" Dickinson is vocalizing support - but that's just dancing on the deck of the Titanic. Chandler claimed he didn't know the Bartlett police chief was on the take, either. For someone so well connected, he sure doesn't seem to know much. *insert rolling eyes*

Former Republican State Senator Mark Hounsell wrote an editorial that was extremely critical of Chandler. He's full of surprises these days. There's a candidate's forum in N. Conway today - I'm betting Chandler is a no show.

Breath of fresh air candidate for state senate in district 3, Willie Farnum hasn't taken any $$ other than small individual contributions. I hope he beats the pants off Joe Kenney.

[FightinNewDem]

15. Gene and Crow

I have heard rumblings and mutterings about Chandler's Bartlett dirt, but nobody ever really wants to get into it too deeply, so I don't really know the story.

Unfortunately, we can not underestimate Chandler. In person, he is charming in a grandfatherly sort of way, with a dry sense of humor (I spend way too much time at the State House, as you can probably tell). Crow, on the other hand, has always struck me as a bit of a goofball, not really in command of the facts and getting by on his sheer longevity in politics.

The big question is what role the Dem caucus will have come organization day. As it stands now, there are two candidates for Dem Leader, Terri Norelli of Portsmouth and Jim Craig of Manchester. Terrie is the stereotypical Seacoast liberal, all jazzed up about liberal social causes, no real economic plan beyond raising the minimum wage. She also has a bit of a clucky personality that could turn off the public. Jim, on the other hand, comes across as thoughtful, but he is cautious to a fault. He suffers from that Manchester malady that seems to say that if the Central Little Green Booster Club doesn't care about it, then it can't be important (see generally D'Alesandro, Lou; Duffy, Pete). As a result, I would expect way too much deference from a Craig caucus.

Two other candidates remain possibilities. Rep. Dan Eaton, the brother of Tom Eaton, is mulling the race, but his relationship to his brother/senate president makes it a complicated affair. Rep. Jay Phinizy is also eyeing a last-minute entry. Jay is one of the smartest people in the entire House, and has a superb record on environmental issues. He is that rare breed of cat who can appeal to both liberals (heck, he was at Berkley in 1968) and moderate Democrats. He has a bit of an country eccentric demeanor, but he is never condescending, and rarely lapses into tired dogma (a big problem with Norelli). I am hoping Phinizy jumps in, if only to influence the tone of the race.

I feel that Norelli would probably be reluctant to cut a deal with rogue Republican Tony DiFruscia, while Phinizy seems inclined to do so. Craig, typically, won't say. If DiFruscia can peel away 35-40% of the Republicans from Chandler, and if the Dems can kick in 130-140 votes, then we may be in line to have some influence on committee assignments and leadership decisions.

[maxanne]

17. kindly and grandfatherly?

That's funny - I don't get that from Gene at all. He hates me, though, and runs if he sees me coming. He's never been anything but surly to me. He was so pissed off at me for running in 2002 in HIS district, that he's never recovered. I don't know how his financial stuff will affect him here, it's put a real dent in his popularity.

Not a single Republican attended the forum today - they all had some reason to be in Concord, and the one who isn't an incumbent knew better, than to attempt a battle of the wits with the Democratic candidates, seeing as how he'd be unarmed.

Oddly enough, Crow is far more reasonable. He will listen to reason, and has a better voting record on progressive issues than any of the others in this district. He is a wild card, though. Both he and Gene are pretty heavy drinkers. If a breathalyzer had been required at the 2002 candidates forum, the stage would have been almost empty.

Oh, there's dirt aplenty up here in the north country!!