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By STEVE KORNACKI
PoliticsNJ.com
January 18 - The way Jon Corzine’s camp envisioned it a few months ago, this was supposed to be the time --the middle to end of January -- when Dick Codey would come to his senses, cut a deal, and fold his hand, effectively ceding the governorship to Corzine.
But the acting governor, bolstered by good poll numbers last week and the promise of even better ones next week, doesn’t seem too interested in following that script.
So now, almost two months after he formally entered the race for governor, Corzine seems to be shifting into a more aggressive gear, hoping perhaps to intimidate Codey out of seeking a four-year term. But some Democrats warn that trying to play hardball with the notoriously prickly Codey could backfire on Corzine, bringing about the contested primary so many Democrats dread.
“If they both decide to run,” one party insider who’s caught in the middle said last week, “then they’re both being selfish.”
The Corzine offensive was launched this morning, when the senator was quoted in the Star-Ledger reaffirming his own intent to run and all but accusing Codey of reneging on a deal."
He followed that up by scheduling a Wednesday morning press conference in Newark to introduce Senator Frank Lautenberg as his campaign’s chairman.
“This is the start of several endorsements that will come out over the next three to six weeks,” Steve Adamske, Corzine’s spokesman, promised.
Adamske said the campaign’s strategy is not being influenced by Codey’s machinations. But when Corzine entered the contest last month, his aides said he would cede the spotlight to Codey until late January, believing Codey would then opt not to run and to back Corzine instead.
“I wouldn’t say there was a deal,” Adamske said. “But I think there was sort of conventional wisdom that he would step out and stay Senate president and not seek a four-year term. Now it seems he’s reconsidering that.”
Codey has not set a definitive timetable for making up his mind; those close to him say he’ll make his plans known by early February. He’s commissioned a poll to test his standing, with results due back later this week. There are also likely to be several independent public opinion polls released over the next several weeks. It is widely assumed they will all show Codey riding his eight week media honeymoon to stratospheric numbers.
Turning up the heat on an emboldened Codey may not be the wisest course for Corzine.
“Nothing Dick Codey has done in the last two months has done anything to hurt his ability to run,” said Tom O’Neil, a Democratic lobbyist. “I also know Dick well from his thirty years in the legislature, and I would say that he doesn’t respond to well to being pressured.”
Some speculate that Codey might be less likely to stand down, at least in the short term, as a result of Corzine’s more aggressive posture, since backing out now might be construed as “wimping out,” as one Democratic lobbyist put it.
“This is the biggest gamble of his life if he jumps in,” the Democratic lobbyist, who is trying to remain neutral, said. “He’s going to lose the Senate presidency if he runs and loses.”
But one of the acting governor’s top allies said Codey’s reluctance to hand over the reins is solely rooted in his enjoyment of the job.
“Dick Codey has grown into this job,” said Assemblyman John McKeon, who is also the mayor of Codey’s hometown of West Orange. “In a very short period of time he’s found that he can be an extremely effective governor. That’s what’s driving his desire to seriously explore running for a full four-year term— nothing more, nothing less.”
McKeon downplayed the impact of Lautenberg’s endorsement of Corzine.
“You would expect that his colleague in the United States Senate would be supporting him,” he said. “I don’t think it changes the landscape in any appreciable way.”
Most insiders agree that Lautenberg, who actually was quoted last week expressing doubt over whether Corzine would go forward with his candidacy, brings gravitas to the table, but no “juice,” or political muscle.
But if Corzine rolls out the state’s key Democratic county chairmen in the next few weeks, it could give pause to Codey, whose strategy in a primary would likely rely on winning organizational support in Middlesex, Union and Bergen counties.
As Corzine and Codey inch closer to war, Congressman Rob Andrews edges closer to joining the fray as the race’s third candidate. Andrews’s camp says he’s likely to run if Codey does -- a prospect that one Andrews aide says “seems more likely now than ever.”
“There are a lot of little subtle things that are going to be going on in the next 48 to 72 hours that are going to give us a better sense of what’s going on and who’s cutting what deal,” the aide said.
For now, Corzine’s political ship is apparently being steered by a tight circle of advisers, including Patti McGuire, a skilled field operative; Tom Shea, the senator’s chief of staff; Maggie Moran, Corzine’s state director; and Steve DeMicco, a Democratic consultant.
But there are rumblings that Corzine may be fishing for more top-level political talent, from outside of New Jersey. As the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s chairman, he spent much of 2003 and 2004 building a national rolodex of party consultants and operatives, many of whom are now in the market for work. The only major races this year are in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City.
“I think you will find that ’05 will be an incredibly slow year on the national scene,” noted O’Neil. “Every political consultant in America on the Democratic side is looking at Jon Corzine as the one big check this year.”
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My honest opinion is that Codey, while he has been doing well, should step down. Corzine has a rather large warchest and he would end up outspent. Plus, he is too much of an insider, and that might not play well.
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