Wolfe Vs Garrett in the 5th CD.

[FogerRox]

Anne Wolfes 2 interviews on AAR:

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/media/Wolfe_10-11_96k.mp3

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/media/Wolfe_10-18.mp3

Endorsements:

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/endorsements.asp

On the Isssues:

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/on_the_issues.asp

Bio:

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/biography.asp

History:

http://www.wolfe2004congress.com/history.asp



Late nite march 15th I took a look at some of the numbers from 2000 and 2004. Now before anyone jumps on my case for mixing up those 2 years, those are the numbers I had last night at 11pm. And its quite clear that with the huge disparity between registered Independant voters and Registered Dems and repubs that the inherant message doesnt get diluted. The message is quite clear. I have to say that I think the 5th CD is more approachable than I previously thought. Garrett is in more trouble than I thought. And here is why.


Anne Wolfe and the Independant voter in 2006

In New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, year 2000, Moderate Republican Marge Roukema got 68.2% to win over Democrat Linda Mercurio. The folks of the 5th district will obviously vote for a moderate if presented with the oppurtunity. In 2004 Scott Garrett underperformed compared to Roukema. Thats a 9.6% disparity between Garretts 58.6% to Roukemas 68.2. Expressed in Anne Wolfes favor: Anne Wolfe: 51% to Garretts 49%. Thats a win. Heres another way to look at Roukema's win. 68.2% minus the base vote of 28%, leaves 40.2%, and Anne Wolfe has already excedded that in 2004, 41.4%.

In 2000 the 5th District contained 380,000 registered voters. Registered Democrats represent 16% of Registered voters. Republicans: 28.3%, Independants 55.7%. If Anne has the Dems-- 16% + 25.4% = 41.4% she got in 2004. That 25.4% came from the Independant vote. There remains another 30.3% Indie vote.

If Garretts base vote is 28%, then Garrett got the remainder of the Indie vote to get to 58 %. These voters are not Garretts base, they are not right wingers, these voters are not overtly wealthy. They dont live in 8000 sq. foot houses in Hackettstown, or in Blairstown. These voters are naturally part of the middle class. They are all pontentially democrats.

If that remaining Indie vote gets split with Garrett, Anne Wolfe and Garrett each get about 15.1%, So Anne gets her 41.4% plus her share of the Indie vote 15.1% and that = 56.7%. That is a big win for Anne Wolfe. That is the trick to the 5th District, Challenge Garrett for the Indie vote.

[jerseygirl]

1. Excellent analysis!

Thank you, Roger. I couldn't agree more. The independent vote is very much ours for the taking. One other important thing to note is that many of these new residents who are independents are moving to Warren and Sussex counties from the traditionally Democratic strongholds of the Northeastern part of NJ and are likely to be leaning D's,if not D's whose partisan affiliations didn't transfer when they moved. Plus, as your data shows, Anne did much better as a challenger than the 2002 canididate did when the seat was open, which is contradictory to traditional political science thinking. With the name recognition she earned in 2004, I am very confident about 2006!

[FogerRox]

2. I checked some newer #'s and voter reg was up 3500 a year later in 2001

The basic split was still the same.

[Jersey Devil]

3. I think you may be missing redistricting

Unless I am mistaken, wasn't Bergenfield in the 9th congressional district in 2000 and then put in the 5th after the census and redistricting? If so, that is a much more Democratic town than many of the others in the 5th and would have given Mercurio better numbers overall in 2000.

Another thing that you did not consider in your post though is the fact that in 2000 Mercurio didn't have two dimes to rub together for a campaign while Wolfe at least had some money.

[FogerRox]

5. the numbers I pullled were 2000 & 2001

yes the 5th was redone as was the 7th. The 7th got way more work.

[Jersey Ginny]

4. Hey Roger-Thanks for the analysis

I'm going to study it in more detail. I like what I've read.

[FogerRox]

6. Cool--"Dems to DC "got that same info---

[Truth__Seeker]

7. An Alert Reminder

Scott Garrett is going to have Social Security town hall meeting in Dumont, April, 4th @ 7PM. With him will be Josh Bolton of the OMB and Ryan Ellis of the infamous Americans for Tax Reform. It will be at Dumont Council Chambers, 50 Washington Ave. He wants to 'listen to our concerns about Social Security'. I say we do just that, I know I will be there. This is the opportunity to pull back the curtain.

[FogerRox]

8. Just remmber

Trustees say @ 1.8% growth SS is good till 2042

CBO says 2.4% growth SS is good untill 2052

SOo we can assume that with
3.0% growth SS is good untill 2062

And

3.6% growth SS is good untill 2072

The Us economy has averaged 3.5% growth for the last 100 years.

wont the Boomers be dead by then? --2072?

SO we wont have tpo pay them SS ---right?

[Truth__Seeker]

9. Noted, thanks

[Kire]

10. Aronsohn and Zikas consider challenging Garrett in '06

Paul Aronsohn, who served as Gov. James E. McGreevey's first press secretary, is mulling a challenge to Rep. Scott Garrett in the 5th district next year. The Pfizer public affairs executive says he will announce an exploratory committee in the near future. "My reason for doing this is as simple as it is sincere: I care passionately about our State and our country, and I am deeply concerned about the direction in which we are heading," Aronsohn said. "My plan is to spend the weeks and months ahead talking with and listening to the people of the 5th district."

"Too many politicians seem to care more about partisanship than about people, and as such, they do little, if anything, to address the real issues that affect real people -- issues like healthcare and job security," Aronsohn wrote in an e-mail to PoliticsNJ.com. "It's time -- once and for all -- to put an end to divisive, purely partisan politics, and it's time to hold accountable those elected officials who peddle it. Public service should be about serving the public -- not serving some special or ideological interest."

"The propaganda minister for Jim McGreevey says ‘Public service should be about serving the public -- not serving some special or ideological interest?’ Is that an early April fools joke?" asked Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson. "Paul Aronsohn led the campaign to hide from the public the corrupt behavior of the McGreevey administration. He aided and abetted McGreevey’s effort to install Golan Cipel into the Homeland Security Advisor’s post. I cannot imagine anyone, anywhere in New Jersey supporting such a candidacy…except for maybe Jim McGreevey.”

Garrett was elected in 2002 and re-elected with 59% of the vote against Dorothea Anne Wolfe in 2004. Wolfe is considering another bid in '06, as is Harry Zikas, the 26-year-old two-term Mayor of Alpha in Warren County. (03/31/05)


(I don't know why PoliticsNJ doesn't post direct links to many of their stories. This is in the yellow section of the front page today, March 31st).

[jerseygirl]

11. Aronsohn and Zikas

Aronsohn doesn't even live in the district. He is apparently looking for a house in Ridgewood. No one with such close ties to McG gets elected in New Jersey for at least five more years. Wilson is right on the money. As for Zikas, he is not even a player in Warren County. What makes him think he could get elected to Congress is beyond me.

[FogerRox]

12. And they rounded up Garretts % to 59. really 58.6%--- Harumph--

I doubt either of those 2 DUDE have the suppport in the 5th to dso it.
Wolfe has support in the 5th and also fom outside the district.

And thats one reason the WOlfe pack is gonna chew up GArrett.
>wink<