Nov 17 Q-Poll : Corzine has big early lead in Gov. race

[PfNJ]

still way too early to mean much, but.....

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=554

"Sen. Jon Corzine is the odds-on favorite in an early look at the 2005 New Jersey governor's race, topping any names on a list of the top Republican contenders by at least 20 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today."


"Corzine beats several possible Republican challengers:
51 - 25 percent over Diane Allen;
51 - 30 percent over Bret Schundler;
51 - 29 percent over Douglas Forrester;
51 - 24 percent over Christopher Christie."


Nice to see those leads over the two right-wing extremists who have some name-recognition, Christie appears to be a wingnut in disguise, I really don't think Allen has much of a chance to win the primary, which is good since she'd probably be their best candidate to run in this state, and I don't know much at all about Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, he wasn't included in the poll questions.....

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Would he get to appoint a replacement for himself?

[PfNJ]

2. Yes.....

I believe Corzine would be able to appoint an interim Senator to hold his seat until the next general election, which, following the 2005 gubernatorial election, would be the 2006 election, which is when Corzine's term would have expired anyway.....

The appointee would probably be Rep. Bob Menendez of Hudson County, and it would seem, after the Dems actually lost seats in the house this cycle, that Menendez would be willing to leave the House (he's a pretty high-ranking member, I believe he's the number three Democrat) and move on over to the Senate. Incumbency and the fact that the NJ GOP has no bench to speak of, would basically assure him another six years in the 2006 election.....

[Jersey Devil]

3. Repubs have 2 in the wings who could give us a run for it

Christie Whitman and Tom Keane Jr. I have no idea if Whitman is interested in running for office again but Keane has ruled out a run for gov next year and sounds ambitious and interested.

[PfNJ]

5. Kean maybe, but.....

I still have trouble believing a "moderate" can win a Republican primary for any statewide office as long as there are Forrester / Schundler types scraping their knuckles around our state. Regarding Whitman, in light of her role in covering up the facts about air quality in / around Lower Manhattan, I believe her carrying water for the Bushites has effectively eliminated any chance of her winning elective office here again. I've heard it said before, can't remember where or by whom, but I'll say it again, after the EPA situation, the only thing in New Jersey she should run for is the Pennsylvania border.....

[jerseygirl]

4. Also important about that poll

Is that Codey's numbers, while he only polls 20 percent against Corzine, are very good against the likely R. candidates. I'm pretty confident Drumthwacket will remain blue. :)

[PfNJ]

6. I noticed that as well.....

Good sign.

Whoever the Republican is, it won't be Christie (he's probably going to wait to run for the Senate seat in 2006) -

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-12/1100886859157920.xml&storylist=jersey

or Allen -

http://www.courierpostonline.com/news/southjersey/m111704j.htm

but whoever it is (cough, Forrester, cough), they won't be able to run as the Not-McGreevey, which was probably their only hope. Since 1985, the NJ Republicans have had exactly one (1) candidate win state-wide office, and they haven't had an elected United States Senator since Cliff Case.....

[Osamasux]

7. It will take a fight

I expect it to be Forrester. Schundler fell off the face of the planet after his loss, with Forrester helping push him off. Forrester has a strong grass roots organization, lots of money and is well connected to the extremists. (He even spent a fair amount on a phone bank campaign to force an early resignation by McGreevy.) Chris Smith has a lot of pull and will help prevent any moderates from becoming their candidate.

If Codey does well, I would rather keep Corzine in the senate and hold Menendez until Lautenberg re-retires in 2009. We lost two many senators this year.

[Lenape85]

8. Did you know that Forrester is pro-choice

http://www.politicsnj.com/forrester102402k.htm

Hmmm, you know, there is a Constitution Party in New Jersey, and they might be willing to run someone for governor, thus dividing the right flank.

But then again, that's just me.