Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System vs. New York Lever System: 2000-2008 (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

Full Article

Oregon Mail-in Ballots & Hand-Recount System  vs.  New York Lever System: 2000-2008

TruthIsAll     source: richardcharnin.com/OregonVsNYVoting.htm

March 29, 2010

Oregon defied the many battleground and heavily Democratic states in which Bush increased recorded vote share from 2000. Oregon's 13.6% exit poll discrepancy in 1992 and 10.2% uncounted vote rate in 1996 may have had something to do with the 1998 decision to switch to mail-in ballots. Oregon’s recorded vote-count shares closely approximated the National True Vote in 2000, 2004 and 2008. Was it because the voting-and-recounts were done exclusively by mail-and-hand and not by machine?

 

2004

 

2004

 

2000

 

2004

'Battleground state' OREGON

OR PHONE SURVEY Share (±3.2% MoE)

Kerry
52.2

Bush
46.3

 
 

Margin
+5.9

 
 

 

OR VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
51.35

Bush
47.19

 
 

Margin
+4.16

Swing
 

Gore
46.96

Bush
46.52

Nader
5.04

 
+0.44

+3.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

PhoneSurvey - VoteCount

+1.74%

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

< MoE

Oregon Voting System Advantages

• Vote exclusively by mail-in ballots: '04=86.5% '08=85.7%
  
• Each general election: post-election handcount of random-selected precincts
  
• Partial/full hand-recounts check optical scanner tallies
  
• "No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two."

Oregon Facts:

• Gore 2000:
  .44% OR VoteCount margin VERY NEAR .52% National
  
• Kerry 2004:
  4.2% OR VoteCount margin was a NEAR MATCH to 5% unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate. Compare to Kerry -2.5% National Recorded Vote-Count margin deficit
  
• Obama 2008:
  56.7% OR VoteCount share a NEAR MATCH to 57.1% OR TrueVote model. Compare 52.9% National Recorded share vs his 58.0% National TrueVote model

 

Solid 'Democratic state' NEW YORK

NY EXIT POLL Share (± 2-3% MoE)

Kerry
64.5

Bush
34.0

 
 

Margin
+30.5

 
 

 

NY VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
58.37

Bush
40.08

Nader
1.35

Margin
+18.29

Swing
 

Gore
60.21

Bush
35.23

Nader
3.58

 
+24.98

-6.7%
 

 

 DISCREPANCY ( WPD ) (%)

 Margin Δ

ExitPoll - VoteCount

+12.2 %

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

>2 x MoE

New York Voting System Vulnerabilities:

• Defective levers in the most democratic precincts – undercount votes
  
• Too few levers in Democratic precincts – long lines
  
• Pre-set levers stuck on Bush – discourage voters
  
• Late provisional and absentee paper ballots not counted on Election Day
  
• Lever totals input to PROGRAMMABLE central tabulators
  
• No hand recounts – there are no paper ballots to count (except for late votes)

New York Facts:

• 2000-2008:
  Democratic late (paper ballot) vote-share 7% higher than E-Day (lever) and matched the unadjusted exit polls
  
• Gore 2000:
  25% recorded marg (60-35%)– 2% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Kerry 2004:
  18% recorded marg (58-40%)–12% exitpoll discrepancy
  
• Obama 2008:
  27% recorded marg (63-36%)–exit polls not released

 

NATIONAL  Exit Polls  &  Recorded Vote-Counts –  Prelim NEPs  vs  Final NEPs

PRELIM NEP, 13K Random Selection  .86% MoE

Kerry
 50.8 

Bush
48.2

Nader
1.0

Margin
+2.6

 

Final NEP – IMPOSSIBLE  forced match of VoteCount

Kerry
48

Bush
51

 
 

Margin
-3.0

 

Recorded VOTE-COUNT Share (%)

Kerry
48.27

Bush
50.73

Nader
0.38

Margin
-2.46

Swing
 

Gore
48.38

Bush
47.87

Nader
2.73

 
+0.52

-3.0%
 

 

 

 DISCREPANCY (%)

 Margin Δ

 

12:22a Prelim NEP - VoteCount

+5.1 %

 

'+' = share-margin shift to Bush

3 x MoE

• If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of
   returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count,
   then the official national Recorded VOTE-COUNT must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs
   must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.

As a battleground state, it is to be expected that Oregon closely matches the national electorate. Since it votes 100% by mail, and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote-counts, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the True Vote.  This is confirmed by the following facts:

...

• Do you believe:
  
  a) 
  the 2008 Oregon vote ( 56.7% ) reflected Obama’s True national share ( 58.0% ),  or
  
  
  b) 
  the national recorded vote-count share ( 52.9% ) for Obama?
  
  
  Did fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million (from 22.5 to 9.5 million)?

...
Now consider New York.

In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?

Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):

Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)

by 74.7–15.0%.  Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an  8.3% LOWER margin.

Gore won Multnomah

by 63.5–28.2%.  Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an  8.9% HIGHER margin.

It’s an Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.

Consider that ...

Full Article

 

[tiptoe]

1. Mail-In ballots, Centr Voter Reg Sys, Counties receive & tally ballots, hand-recounts check tallies.

...
Being an all vote-by-mail state, Oregon has many differences from Colorado in our vote tally process.
Colorado uses vote centers and precincts in a distributed vote and tally process.
Oregon utilizes a centralized vote tally process with all votes received and tallied at County Elections Offices.

This centralized practice allows for much greater control of the tally process.
• For example, each ballot envelope received by the County Elections Officials is scanned, signature verified and then accepted for counting. This process is done using Oregon's Centralized Voter Registration System. (Vote-by-Mail video)

This system is completely separate from the vote tally systems used in Oregon Counties.
It provides a cross reference in that the number of ballots received and accepted for counting equals the number of ballots counted by the tally systems.

• In addition local election officials are required by statute (ORS 254.235) to perform logic and accuracy testing prior to each election and after the counting is done.

254.525 Test of vote tally system. If a vote tally system is used, the county clerk shall repeat the public certification test described under ORS 254.235 (1) for the vote tally system used to conduct the election. The test shall be conducted after all the ballots are tallied but before the final results of the election are certified or before the vote tally system is shut down. The test may be observed by persons described in ORS 254.235(2). The county clerk shall certify the results of the test. <1979 c.190 §274; 1993 c.713 §36; 1999 c.410 §61; 2001 c.965 §24; 2007 c.154 §47>

• In addition, as you know, the Legislature adopted a new law that takes affect this year that requires for each general election a post-election handcount of select precincts. These will be conducted in addition, of course, to the normal routine recounts we do in Oregon, because each election inevitably includes a few close races.

I must reiterate here an important fact. No recount conducted in Oregon has ever turned up evidence that a tally machine failed to correctly count votes. A full recount is the ultimate test and with each election we always have at least one or two.

John Lindback, Director
Elections Division
Oregon Secretary of State's Office

source: http://www.oregonvrc.org/2008/02/192007_johns_reply_oregons_election_systems_decertified_colorado

 

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Lemme get this straight, now...

according to this, the scanners in Oregon are more accurate than NY's lever machines? I would tend to agree, but it defies the conventional wisdom around here.

I have to dispute NY being "solidly Democratic" though-- downstate may be heavily Democratic, but even NYC elected Republican Mayors twice in a row. And my downstate county, with two Democratic House members, is about 60% Republican. The next county over has the primordial Peter King as its rep. Local offices in both counties trade back and forth regularly.

And I'd like some support for the idea that levers were "stuck" on Bush or anyone else. they do have a lot of problems, but that's the first I've head that one.

[tiptoe]

3. New York Voting Anomalies

New York Voting Anomalies

6- Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS): Many NYC precincts had broken machines; all “stuck” levers were stuck on Bush. Lever voting machines have given New Yorkers a false sense of security. The 2004 Election Incident Reporting System confirms that Kerry’s winning NY margin was cut drastically by election fraud. There were 19 reported NY 2004 voting machine “stuck” lever incidents. All 19 were “stuck” on Bush.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NY2004EIRS.htm

...

19 “Stuck” Lever Incidents

The 2004 Election Incident Reporting System confirms that Kerry’s winning NY margin was cut drastically by election fraud. There were 19 reported NY 2004 voting machine “stuck” lever incidents. All 19 were “stuck” on Bush.

1) 28456 141 Machon Street JHS 258
Only one machine in polling place and its STUCK ON REPUBLICAN, they're giving out envelope that says "affidavit oath", no list of candidates

2) 28554 PS 58, Macon Street Brooklyn
Radio report--minister called in that the machine is broken and ONLY TAKING THE REPUBLICAN side of the vote; report came on the radio 2x while on the phone

3) 28715 PS 306, Wortman & Cozine Ave.
Machine is LOCKED ON THE REPUBLICAN side

4) 29919 PS 306, Vermont Ave.
One of the machines was STUCK ON THE REPUBLICANS. The other machine was only for voters A-L. They disenfranchised anyone whose name was not through A-L. Did vote in the end because last name starts with B.

5) 30394 PS 258 JHS - 141 Macon Street
Machines STUCK SO ONLY REPUBLICANS COULD BE VOTED FOR, told people to go back rather than hand out emergency ballot

6) 33002 PS 126 , 424 Leonard Street
Voter reported that SOMETHING WAS WRONG WITH THE LITTLE LEVER FOR THE DEMOCRATIC Presidential candidate's slot at Polling Machine serial number: 91204. She said that lots of voters complained that the lever did not properly click down.

7) 34442 Taylor White Community Center
THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WASN'T WORKING --- could only vote for president. This is what she was told regarding the ability to vote along party line. She said she will return later to see if fixed.
39120 - SWITCH FOR DEMOCRATIC AND GREEN CANDIDATES WOULDN'T FUNCTION CORRECTLY but other parties would work, officials did offer paper ballots.

9) 33516 New York PS 199 270 west 70th street
2004-11-02 07:57:10 PST Machine problem
LEVERS WERE BROKEN FOR CERTAIN PARTY LINE, they did not give him emergency ballot because they didn't know which one to give the voter. The voter cast vote for all other candidates. (only specific section of party line was broken).

10) 37472 New York ps 158 11/2/2004; 1:15 pm 2004-11-02 10:31:55 PST Machine problem for voters A-L NO LEVER FOR VP CANDIDATE on DEMOCRATIC side.

11) 33495 ps 158 46-35 oceania st
THE JOHN KERRY CHAD WAS HARD TO PUNCH. None of the other chads for the democratic party candidates were hard to punch.

12) 28481 Bronx PS 50 173rd and Bryant Avenue 6:40 2004-11-02 04:02:36 PST Tyrek said that other voters in line told him that the MACHINES WERE STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN". The line was not moving at all and he did not see whether paper ballots were being passed out to voters. He had to go to work so he left the polling place.

13) 28965 Bronx 11/2/2008 7:30 2004-11-02 04:32:37 PST
MACHINE STUCK IN BUSH/CHENEY POSITION - was allowed to cast paper ballot

14) 31417 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue; apartment building 11/02/04--7:30 a.m. 2004-11-02 06:39:20 PST
Voting machine: only one machine for the 8th district at the location; THE MACHINE WAS STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters couldn't vote unless they were Republican. One of the police officers there looked at the machine and tried to "unstick" it, but was not successful. Voter is concerned that the paper ballots will not get counted, or will be lost.

15) 29968 Bronx PS 50 Rice Ave 2004-11-02 05:29:28 PST
MACHINE ONLY SET FOR REPUBLICANS, could not vote any other way

16) 30579 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue 11/2/04 at 7 am 2004-11-02 06:01:12 PST MACHINE STUCK ON REPUBLICAN; Gave paper ballots; Voter suspects it was a provisional --rather than an emergency ballot.

17) 39075 Bronx p.s. 50, crotona park east 2004-11-02 11:46:17 PST Individual reports news reports of machine irregular; DEMOCRATIC LEVELS MALFUNCTIONING.

18) 33077 Bronx County PS 105, White Plains Road 2004-11-02 07:42:17 PST
Machine is NOT BEING RE-SET for each voter; the machine REMAINS ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters have not been able to vote for other parties. The pol workers said that they cannot adjust the machine because it will jam.

19) 32390 Bronx PS 50 1550 Vyse Ave 7:05 2004-11-02 07:15:06 PST
Went at 7:05; was told that 6 MACHINES "WERE LOCKED ON REPUBLICAN"

 

[Wilms]

4. There are responses to this same post in the Election Reform forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=515260&mesg_id=515260

[Bill Bored]

5. This one is excellent!:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=515260&mesg_id=515418