Race For NC US Senate Seat Could Get Tight

[struggle4progress]

Sunday - January 10, 2010
Written by Dave Haley/David Horn

(RALEIGH) -- Every poll taken shows U.S. Sen. Richard Burr's grip on his senate seat in this year's election is tenuous. Burr does not do well with voter approval ratings and has only a ten point lead over an unnamed opponent in the latest Public Policy Polling survey.

Tom Jensen of the polling service said he thinks Burr's chances for re-election hinge in large part on how voters feel about Democrats in general come election day. "We're going to have to see how things go with the political climate. If things are as bad for Democrats in November as they are now, Burr's going to survive and get another term, but if things get a little better, the economy starts to improve and voters are not quite so down on the Democrats as they are now that could be a real competitive race there in North Carolina" ...

http://www.ncnn.com/content/view/5361/26/

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1. Survey Shows Burr Vulnerability (16 Dec)

December 16, 2009 1:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Republican Sen. Richard Burr's (N.C.) vulnerability heading into 2010 can be seen in a new survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, which showed him with just a 35 percent job approval rating and a single point lead in a hypothetical matchup against a generic Democratic candidate.

Burr, who is shaping up to be the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country, led a generic Democrat 42 percent to 41 percent in a hypothetical matchup but he did slightly better against his actual Democratic opponents. He led Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) 42 percent to 37 percent, attorney Kenneth Lewis (D) 43 percent to 37 percent and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) 45 percent to 36 percent.

The automated PPP survey of 593 North Carolina voters was in the field Dec. 11 to 13 and had a four point margin of error ...

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2009/12/ppp-survey-shows-burr-vulnerab.html

[FBaggins]

3. It isn't just that Democratic support needs to improve by November,

It needs to happen early enough for him to draw a decent opponent.

It's almost too late for that already. PPP has been pumping this story for
months (and few if any other polling firms seem to agree) and they aren't getting anywhere.

Burr is a thorn in our side here in NC, but I suspect he will continue in that role for another term.

[struggle4progress]

4. ... No incumbent has won reelection for this seat since Sam Ervin's last reelection in 1968 ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina,_2010

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2. GOP's Burr Still Looking Vulnerable for Re-Election in North Carolina (16 Dec)

Bruce Drake

First-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr is running ahead of potential Democrat opponents in North Carolina, but his numbers are not impressive and a pair of polls by a Democratic-leaning firm and a conservative organization suggest he still may be in for a competitive race.

A survey by Public Policy Polling, the Democratic-leaning firm, conducted Dec. 11-13 shows Burr ahead of three Democrats who want his job but he suffers from a negative job approval rating, and when voters are asked whether they would prefer Burr or an unnamed Democrat, the result is a statistical tie.

The conservative Civitas Institute, whose poll was conducted Dec. 1-3, only matched Burr against one Democrat, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and had him ahead 40 percent to 21 percent. But when it asked the same question about Burr versus a generic Democrat, it also produced a statistical tie.

"Despite Burr's current lead, the Senate race remains one that could become competitive," Civitas said. "When voters were asked generically if they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for US Senate, Democrats held a one point lead (40 percent to 39 percent)" ...

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/12/16/gops-burr-still-looking-vulnerable-for-re-election-in-north-car/

[supernova]

5. Is there even a non-Heath Shuler type to run?

Elaine Marshall is the de facto runner, but is she just a DLC lite version?

[waiting for hope]

6. I don't think so - she's pretty upset over the

direction the HCR bill is going. I've been getting emails from her campaign and she isn't pleased.

[struggle4progress]

7. When I look at Shuler, the first thing I notice is that he knocked out "Chainsaw Charlie" Taylor,

I regard Shuler as a distinct improvement, since I think that by electing him, we shifted the center of gravity slightly in a favorable direction. It might be the best we can do in that particular district -- so rather than lament Shuler's imperfections, I'll just move on, there being no shortage of other things that need doing

One of those other things is bringing Burr back home from DC. I'll start by supporting Marshall in this effort, as she seems to me the best candidate in the race

Who we actually have available as realistic candidates, of course, depends on the organization resources we can muster. If, for a particular issue or cluster of issues, we had a grassroots membership-based national organization with several hundred paid staff (offices in every congressional district, a state office in every state, and a national office in DC) and (say) a hundred committed volunteer activists in every congressional district, knocking on doors and making phone calls, we could really have an effect on how people vote on that issue. Unless we do something like that, the usual forces of the status quo will predictably dominate the political rhetoric