NC Presidential Primary Polling/Thoughts

[MattNC]

Via Real Clear Politics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democra
tic_primary-275.html

PPP Polling from March 3:

Clinton - 43%
Obama - 47%

Elon College (Feb 18-21)

Clinton - 31%
Obama - 45%

Survey USA (Feb 11)

Clinton - 40%
Obama - 50%

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A few notes:
As with most other states, Obama has clearly made enormous gains since earlier in the year.

PPP has the race more competitive than other polling outfits, though their latest poll from this week is actually an increase for him.

I'd likely discount Elon's polling. Their sample size is relatively small (in the 300s compared to the usual 500+ respondents) with a hefty margin of error. (+/- 6 pts.)

And, of course, the most important caveat: May 6 is still a long time away. Anything can happen. But this is a useful primer for where we are right now at least.

_______

Any other initial thoughts from anyone?

In my view, it should be Obama's to lose, even assuming Clinton comes in with a lot of momentum from a likely Pennsylvania win; the state's demographics suit him well here. Of course, Clinton can do well with the elderly, growing Latino pop. and working class whites.

Obama strongholds:

The Triangle. He should (and needs) to clean Clinton's clock here. The numerous universities, more affluent/educated white population, and the African American population in Durham. The area's almost a microcosm of his base.

Asheville. Loved my time at UNCA and I would think Asheville's vibrant progressive community will embrace Obama strongly. Outside of the city limits is another story of course.

Clinton strongholds:

Appalachia and Eastern NC. Lower income Whites, as we know, are important for her. If the recent tallies in Southeastern Ohio and West/Southwest Virginia are any indication, she'll have no problem dominating these two areas.

Areas that will be important/interesting to watch:

Military areas. Clinton has done some good work for Reservists especially in the Senate, and the lower income of the area will help her as well. But Obama has led Democrats among $$$ contributions from the military. I suspect Clinton wins her, but by how much is a key question. Obama needs to hit back on her national security arguments.

Charlotte/Greensboro/Winston. African American populations around 40% help Obama here, yet the these bigger cities are a little more conservative than typical ones. Guilford/Mecklenburg counties went back to blue(barely) in '04 if that means much.

I don't know enough about the politics of the Southeast portion of the state or areas such as Hickory/Salisbury to comment on those.

[MattNC]

1. New Rasmussen Poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary

Obama - 47%
Clinton - 40%
Undecided - 14%

[MattNC]

2. New SUSA Poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c7ebbb42-19e7-4e9a-9f43-fc2efdc06f06

Obama 49
Clinton 41

(MoE 3.7%)

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

3. National primary scrambles N.C. races

National primary scrambles N.C. races

Candidates divide airtime, attention and advertising
By Mark Johnson - McClatchy Newspapers Mon, Mar. 10, 2008

CHARLOTTE --The spectacle of the presidential race coming to North Carolina brings more than bright lights, banners and Secret Service agents.

Independent voters will more likely vote in the Democratic primary, which is bad for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican.

More women and blacks likely will vote, which is bad for state Treasurer Richard Moore, a Democrat.

...North Carolina hasn't seen a competitive presidential primary in at least 20 years.

Candidates and their hired guns now find their world transformed.

The statistical models they used to poll are worthless and direct mailing strategies are obsolete.

"The only thing that seems predictable this election cycle is the consistency in which pundits and experts have been proven wrong," Reiff said.

read more here

[Oslo]

4. Good news on the polling results.

If you want to write to NC's Superdelegates, here is some basic contact information I found posted by a Barack Obama supporter on barackobama.com

Citizens of NC write to your super delegates
Although your primary is not until May 6th, your support is needed in keeping the vote real. Write to you super delegates and encourage them to not overturn your vote for the State of NC or for your district (if we don't carry NC). The State of NC has 17 super delegates. Your super delegates are: Joyce Brayboy, Susan Burgess, Jeanette Council, Jerry Meek, Dannie Montgomery, Muriel K. Offerman, David Parker, Carol W. Peterson and Everett Ward. Please write to them individually in care of Democratic National Committee
430 S. Capitol St. SE
Washington, DC 20003
Also, please write to your Democratic Gov. Michael Easley and from the U.S. House of Representatives G. K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, Brad Miller, David Price, Heather Shuler, and Melvin Watt, as they are super delegates as well.
Every vote should count. Make every vote count!

[Source to Sea]

5. I think you're right on the mark. I expect Obama to win by about 8% when its all said and done

Hillary just isn't very well liked in NC. Not a value judgement on her, but man, you can hear it in people's voices. Granted, the primary's not till May, but Obama may score huge with the college crowd here.