I have a bad feeling

[MeDeMax]

That Ohio made decision 2008 last night.

Yes, I know the delegate math and all the other factors involved. But there is just something about Ohio that we become the accurate predictor of future outcomes. Barring a miracle, Hillary is going to be the nominee who will go on to lose to McCain in November.

Here is why I think this will happen:

- Bush will court the evangelicals and core conservatives for McCain.

- Many Christian voters, men & women, believe having a woman leader is against the teachings in the Bible.

- McCain is very good at attracting independent voters with his straight talk express, so he is likely to best her in that space.

- Military families will vote McCain due to his POW status and because they don't change course in the middle of a war.

- She is vulnerable to McCain, here is why:

___- He is far more experienced than her in pretty much any area by a few decades.

___- He is a POW.

___- She voted to authorize the war.

___- Last week during the debate in Cleveland, she said she wished she could have her Iraq vote back (flip flop).

___- She also flip flopped on NAFTA, she cheered on NAFTA when it passed, now she wants to renegotiate it.

___- He is from a border state and has supported illegal immigrant issues (much to the chagrin of the R base).

___- He can use his anti-abortion position and his support for illegal immigrants to sway Hispanics away from her.


So Hillary will excel in non-evangelical democratic women voters (white and minority, absent Barack factor) but McCain wins simple majorities in many other demographics and strong majorities in R strongholds.

What do you get ? Decision 2008 for McCain.

Its pretty depressing.

[mmonk]

1. She hasn't won.

[formerfed]

27. Your right- she has not won yet

Your right- she has not won yet

[mattclearing]

2. If you know the delegate math, what are you basing your nomination prediction on? n/t

[MeDeMax]

5. she will find a way to get FL & MI counted for her, a few supers flop back and she is ahead -- n/t

[mattclearing]

6. Won't happen. No one will give her uncontested delegates. n/t

[MeDeMax]

15. I understand, but no one has won without winning Ohio

That is just a grounded principle of American politics.

[OhioBlue]

20. We've also never had a woman and a black man

as a final choice for our Democratic candidate. This year is a year of change in many ways.

I think Obama will clean up in the rest of the contests. He will beat McCain.

Bush Clinton Bush Clinton is not change. Another Republican is not change.

We've had a member of the Bush or Clinton family in the White House for 28 years. How many things are being suppressed because they all have something on each other? We don't need another 4 or 8 years of that. We need to get that message out.

[MeDeMax]

23. I hope you are right, like I said, I have a bad feeling -- n/t

[Justyce]

3. Now do that exact same comparison using Obama vs McCain.

It's pretty scary either way. This is going to be a nail-biter.

And as far as the Iraq war vote, if you have 2 candidates in the GE, one who thinks the war is going great and wants to stay there indefinitely and one who says he/she is against it, and you are against it, which one do you vote for in the general election.... so I don't think that's going to factor in. I highly doubt anyone against the war is going to vote for McCain because HRC voted to authorize or Obama voted to fund it. That was pertinent in the primary, but it will be a different ballgame in the GE.

[MeDeMax]

7. if one is against the war

one would pick Obama if he were a choice.

But even those who are against the war have strong feelings about America looking weak on the issue of the war. If McCain does his homework, it easy to put her in a corner where she has to answer if she is for the war or against it.

When she does answer, she either voted for it and is now against it, or she is now for it but wanted to have her vote back.

Funding a war when the soldiers are in the field is NEVER a mistake, in fact it is the duty of a nation that sent them there. That Barack voted to continue funding is a non-issue for the electorate.

It is pertinent in the GE if Barack were to become the nominee.

[fliesincircles]

28. if one is against the war

Why would you choose Obama?

The first time I saw or ever heard of Barack was his 04 Keynote address at the Dem convention. Do you remember that. Same happy horseshit Kerryspeak "shoulda sent in more troops..blah...blah."

When I found out he opposed the war from the beginning, I was shocked. Just another centrist politician flappin in the breeze.

An anti-war candidate with the opportunity to make the Keynote address with a HUGE NATIONAL AUDIENCE,and he says "shoulda sent in more troops..blah...blah."

No wonder Kerry endorsed him. When a centrist says they were wrong, its a good thing. When a centrist says they were right, watch out.

Peace

[Kolesar]

29. Kerry ran the DN Convention & he said "no antiwar speeches"

IIRC, Al Sharpton went off script into an antiwar comment. Kerry never could get beyond his prowar vote. He handled it stupidly with his comment about being "for the war before he was against it" or...whatever.

[fliesincircles]

30. So now

Obama can say "I was against it, before I was for it, but now I'm against it and was never for it."

And if confronted, no problem, "My boss told me to say that, but I didn't mean it. Plus the war was not important enough for me to dash my presidential aspiration."

He just has to word it "inspirationally" and its peace, love and flowers for everyone.

[Kolesar]

31. tell yourself whatever you have to tell yourself to get through the day

I'm going to read my seed catalogs. :hi:

[Kukesa]

32. LOL! I may just steal that last sentence of yours. n/t

[fliesincircles]

33. Exactly. Obama/08

[randr]

4. Hillary will join the Military band

if she goes up against McLame. She will point to her record supporting the war all along.
Nothing will change with either candidate winning.

[MeDeMax]

8. McCain is a POW, it does not get any holier than that with Military families -- n/t

[Kukesa]

9. I'm concerned about a comment Ari Fletcher,

King George's previous press secretary, made on CNN. Something about repubs going to sleep each night and dreaming about Hillary's becoming the Dem nominee.

I'm depressed, too, Max.

[MeDeMax]

10. I remember all those hours of talk radio - Cunningham & Rush

bashing both the Clintons, day after day after day. I think Cunningham coined "Billary Clinton".

Its like a rerun of the mid to late 90s, except this year it will happen before the election.

No candidate can unite factions of the Repubs like Hillary can, down in southern Ohio some would spit on their own mother if she were a Clinton supporter.

[weezy2736]

16. It's a sad truth, but a lot of south-easterners are pretty racist.

I don't think that region is going to be good for either candidate.

[MeDeMax]

17. quite right, in Ohio we have a governor, but Bill Cunningham is the King Maker

I wouldn't be surprised to find out some day that the whole "Barack Hussein Obama" was orchestrated for ratings.

While I don't think McCain was a party to it, Cunningham was going to win either McCain's implied approval or a public war of words with McCain's campaign which would get more people tuning into him.

I don't have the numbers handy, but I suspect that in 1996, while Clinton carried the state, Bob Dole carried the 700 WLW & 550 WCKY listening area.

[weezy2736]

18. Down in the depths of Perry County, Rush is god of the vast wilderness.

We have a county road named Congo Road, and the name dosen't really lie.

[Kukesa]

22. And north -eastern Ohioans as well.

I'm originally from Youngstown and would never repeat what a friend who lives there said about Obama. I actually cringed.

[Kolesar]

11. "I voted for the war before I was against it"

If she's the nominee, we are hosed.
edit: that's not really a Hillary quote

[Kukesa]

12. Hosed. Good word for what will happen. I agree. n/t

[AngryOldDem]

14. No, it's not a HRC quote, but it didn't work too well for the guy who said it, did it? n/t

[AngryOldDem]

13. One word: Huckabee.

If McCain picks Huckabee as a running-mate, it's definitely over. McCain is not as pro-life as many fundagelicals (Catholics included) would like. Choosing a veep of the stripe of Huckabee would be a sop to this demographic, which they'll go for in a heartbeat. Huckabee would show that McCain is "talking the talk," in other words, which would allow those on the religious right who may have reservations about him to cast their votes with a clear conscience.

My concern about McCain (among others) is his age and health. Saw him on TV last week and was downright appalled at how bad he looked. I'm sure a lot of that can be chalked up to campaigning. But if this takes so much out of him, what can we expect if he gets elected?

[Riley133]

24. About Huckabee....

The 'momentum' never arrived in my part of Ohio (and no, not rural - city). In fact, I only saw 1 Obama bumper sticker - 1 Obama sign placed too close to a polling location and thus promptly removed - 1 neighborhood Hillary sign....and LOTS of Huckabee signs. You may be on to something there.

[Kukesa]

25. Scary, real scary. n/t

[Kukesa]

26. The more I think about Huckabee as VP

the more I agree that you might be on to something.

That would satisfy those nasty RW radio hosts and give them an "out" for supporting McCain.

My Gawd, AOD, I hope you're wrong.

:scared:

[OhioBlue]

19. I felt the same way last night

but I feel differently today.

As I was driving to work, looking at the trees, fields, vehicles, traffic signs, etc. all covered in a blanket of ice, I thought, whew.. Storm Hillary is gone. She left a bruised Democratic Party and a blanket of ice in our State.

She went crazy with the negative campaign. She said she was going to throw the kitchen sink, and she did. Now, she has nothing. She's done. She also opened a door that she shouldn't have.

[Kukesa]

21. I also am glad "Storm Hillary" is out of here

and gladly pass the torch to our Dem friends in Pennsylvania. They can have her.