...and then there is HOPE !

[MeDeMax]

because voters "tampered" with this election.

(put the word "tampered" at the back of your mind, we'll get to it in a minute).

In analyzing this election, for historical context we cannot go back to 2004, there was no primary contest in Ohio.

While it was not a presidential year, 2006 offers a better baseline for comparison. Both republicans & democrats had contests, Blackwell-vs-Petro and Strickland-vs-Others.

I managed to find these voter turnout numbers on SOS site for 2006 & 2008 respectively :

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/ElectionsVoter/results2006.aspx?Section=1682

http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:11:0

Take a red county like Wayne, Poli said they cast 16,477 Dem ballots on Tuesday. In 2006, they cast 5,172 dem ballots.

So on Tuesday, they cast more than triple the number of dem ballots from 2006. That is a 220% increase in the number of dem ballots from 2006, think about that for a second.

Next, in the 2006 primary Wayne county cast a total of 14,458 ballots (D + R + I), on Tue they cast 32,104 ballots (D + R + I). Again, an astronomical 120% increase, by the standards of election Math.

The numbers are even more skewed when you look at REDDER than RED counties like Butler & Warren.

So something motivated voters (democrats, independents & republicans) to overwhelmingly vote and they voted democratic. Whether it is because they saw a viable female or black candidate for the first time, or because they hate Hillary, or because they can't stand the idea of Barack being the president, or because voting for Hillary gives McCain a fighting chance in November.

No matter what their reasons were, positive or negative for Hillary or Barack, the state as a whole behaved contrary to its equilibrium behavior, in essence Ohio gave up its natural flavor.

The absence of a republican primary stacked the deck so heavily in the democratic column that Ohio failed to capture the essence of the nation. Had Romney stuck around for another two primaries, McCain would not have had the mathematical certainty that he did on Tue and Ohio would have had a more natural Dem primary.

Looking at the next three primaries - Wyoming(18) Mississippi(40) & Pennsylvania(158). Barack is expected to win both WY & MS, if he does 10-8 and 23-17 respectively, he will net +8 effectively canceling Hillary's gain on Tue.

Then comes PA on April 22nd, similar to Ohio in many respects, EXCEPT voters CANNOT TAMPER with the election, like they did in Ohio. It is a closed primary, so PA will have a more natural democratic primary than Ohio did. With 6 weeks to campaign, Barack is likely to net a few more delegates in PA.

Coming back to Ohio, among those who voted D on Tue:

- the Rs will return to their base in Nov (except VJ pointed out somewhere that they are now forced to sift thru dem literature before Nov and for many years to come :-) )

- The Ds will stay with the who ever the nominee is

- Having chosen to take a D ballot in the dem primary, many Is could vote D in the general election.

So there is still HOPE, for the nation and for Ohio, that decision 2008 is not McCain !

[MeDeMax]

1. reading comfort / printer friendlier, voter turnout link (if it works)

(please ignore, it didn't work)

[geiger]

2. so the little anecdotal "evidence" I heard yesterday has legs after all....

thanks for going back and looking at the 2006; I didn't even think about doing that.

[Sara Bradi]

3. you betcha, it sure looks that way in Medina county

http://wp2.medina-gazette.com/2008/03/06/news/voter-reports-ballot-mishap/

Voter reports ballot mishap
March 6th, 2008 · No Comments

By ALLISON WOOD
Staff Writer

MEDINA TWP. — Like many registered Republicans voting in Tuesday’s primary, township resident Robert Eckenrode wanted to switch parties so he could vote for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Turns out, he wasn’t able to do so after a poll worker mistakenly gave him a voting card programmed for a nonpartisan ballot, which only had one issue on it — the Medina City Schools levy.

.....
.....

In Medina County, about 32,000 voters requested a Democratic ballot and approximately 15,000 requested a Republican ballot, Pilat said.

About 43 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, according to unofficial results from the Medina County Board of Elections.

Despite Eckenrode’s desire to vote for Clinton on Tuesday, he said as a Republican, he likely will vote for Arizona Sen. John McCain in November.

So he crossed over just to f**k up our primary and he even admits it !

I knew you can't depend on the rethugs to make peace with other nations, now you can't even count on them to have a decent primary election.

[MeDeMax]

4. wow ! thanks for the link -- n/t

[geiger]

5. kick, would like to hear from other counties

:D

Ohio, tell the nation....

[Kukesa]

6. Cross-over voting was evident down here

in my neck of the woods, SW Ohio, Montgomery Co.

I'm a poll worker and HEARD people request a Dem ballot "just this one time" so they could use some strategy. After informing those voters that they could vote for Dems ONLY, they told us it was OK because they just wanted to vote for president.

And in the Republican stronghold of Greene Co. it was the same. (Think Wright-Patterson Air Force base and lots of conservatives.)

This article in the "Dayton Daily News" confirms what we heard, Democrats outdrew Republicans in Greene for the first time since the 1930s.

snip ...

The large number of Democratic ballots surprised Marilyn Reed, chair of the county GOP but she noted that only 16,000 voted in the contested Democratic county commission race. "That tells me some people were only interested in the presidential race," she said.

snip ...

Link:
http://tinyurl.com/2bvosn


More of the same in Butler Co. (Blue collar workers, some rural areas) Butler County turns blue: More Democrats fill out ballots than Republicans.

snip ...

"Usually Republicans outnumber Democrats by 2 to 1," in the county, said Betty McGary, elections board director. "We won't know exactly how many switched over until we are able to certify results as official."

snip ...

Of the ballots requested Tuesday, March 4, 48,991 were for Democrat, and 39,747 for Republican, according to the elections board.

Before the primary, there were 45,711 registered Republicans and 21,640 Democrats.


snip ...

Link:
http://tinyurl.com/2ybrrj

It's difficult for me to believe that all those voters, who previously were Repubs, suddenly had an epiphany and wanted to vote for Dems. Difficult, indeed.

:eyes:

[geiger]

7. Not since the thirties, huh? Interesting indeed.

[MeDeMax]

8. incredible K, in a free & fair election, Butler county often goes 75-25 in favor of R

somebody figured out the math early.

I suspect some dems voted in the R primary in 2006 to get Blackwell nominated so they could torpedo any chances for the Rs in the general election. But only some, because Ted still had to win the primary.

[geiger]

9. good point. it goes both ways.

elections have been getting "stolen," John Adams would say, since he lost to Jefferson.

[AngryOldDem]

12. I find this to be just incredible.

<<Democrats outdrew Republicans in Greene for the first time since the 1930s.<<

I had kind of a similar experience Tuesday. While I was getting my ballot a woman came up to the table. They asked her what party she was declaring. She was silent for a minute and then asked if it mattered. They told her she could ask for either a Republican or Democratic ballot. She thought for a half-second more and then took the Democratic.

Reading Max's post, my initial thought was that maybe Ohio should revisit the idea of open primaries. I don't like the notion of people coming in just to muck things up, which is what they do under the guise of "making a point" or "sending a message."

[geiger]

14. I voted early, and one of the poll workers here in R country,tho't it was her business to point out

what business did I have to be voting Democratic, married to a high profile R. I wonder what the rest of that clueless's day was like.

[AngryOldDem]

16. I would have reported her to the county BoE.

She had no business making a comment like that. In fact, that could be construed as intimidation, which (last I looked) is unlawful under the voting rights act.

[Kukesa]

32. I just re-read your post. You're married to a repub? Me, too.

We'll have to compare battle scars some day.

;)

[geiger]

10. kick. I think your points are SO important.

[Kukesa]

11. I recently found the Barack Obama DU foum and

it's a breath of fresh air. (I was escaping from GD-P.)

I'll bet that forum would welcome your well-thought-out posts, Max.

[MeDeMax]

17. thank you K, I'll look for it -- n/t

[geiger]

37. thanks also from me

time to get some sanity back. I was starting to get a bit "edgy," perhaps fatigued.

[geiger]

13. this post needs to be "recommended" some more

mdm luckily had the time and go back in and research some cold numbers. Where else is it going on?

[Kukesa]

15. I can do that. Recommended. n/t

[Riley133]

18. This happened everywhere.

Google 'Stop Hillary Express' and you'll find that it started in 2007. Republicans have been encouraged to come out en masse in all state primaries to vote for Obama to oust Hillary; therefore, it is my opinion that all the states' numbers are skewed and not accurate. I thought I read somewhere that it happened to Kerry in 2004. The strategy switched to voting for HRC recently because of the strong feelings on both sides to keep the fight going.

You're right - it works both ways.

I strongly suspect we will have new voting laws for the next Presidential election. Gov Strickland has already mentioned that he will be drafting legislation (I think he said drafting it) to get rid of caucuses.

[Jack 4 Ohio]

19. do you mean open primary, since Ohio does not have caucuses

or are you referring to legislation for the DNC ?

[Riley133]

20. DNC...thanks for the clarification! nt

[Riley133]

21. Yes, there was a Dem primary in 2004 - I voted for Edwards.

And I remember being unhappy that he didn't get the nomination!

[MeDeMax]

22. clarification, we did not have a competitive primary in 2004

it didn't matter whether you voted in the primary, Kerry had the nomination. It was similar to McCain's presumtive nominee status.

[Kukesa]

23. Correct. It was all over before the primary and we didn't have

this blood bath we're currently immersed in.

[Riley133]

31. Thanks - you both obviously have a better memory than I. nt

[VolcanoJen]

33. I remember as well... Ohio was part of Super Tuesday in 2004.

I was for Edwards as well, and was so disappointed when it all wrapped up that night.

[geiger]

24. thank you for starting this discussion MDM, even though it's stirred a hornet's nest,

it would appear, in Wayne County. I posted your numbers in the local paper, and some people are obviously UPSET.

[MeDeMax]

25. oh my gosh ! do you have a link ? -- n/t

[geiger]

26. I am hesitating to put it on because there are some personal vendettas

involved that wouldn't make sense to people who dont live here. Basically the numbers you gave us, I posted on one thread, and a heated discussion insued on a different thread, because of people's confusion over why a favored R didn't beat the incumbent who has high negatives for a variety of reasons (also an R). In retrospect, they are mad at this poor guy (candidate for a County office) who they expected to win, and because if he had "crossed," to become a Dem, he could have absolutely beat the "unfavorable" guy in a two-way race in the general election. But, of course, that's arm chair quarterbacking, because noone could have predicted the cross-over surge. Also, I've heard the MSM media denying it today: "You can't prove people's motives." But I heard it from a friend at work and my own mother, that people were indeed unabashedly stating their reasons for crossing over at the polls, with no moral compunction or consciousness whatsover. I'll keep you posted.

[MeDeMax]

27. I understand, leave it be -- n/t

[MeDeMax]

29. they are being silly, people could have crossed over the other way

If Hillary v Barack was decided on super Tue and if Romney had won several primaries and if it was a heated contest of - McCain v Romney v Huckabee, then the challenger in your county race may have easily won.

However there is some twisted merit to what they are saying, if the challenger had declared himself as a D and run on the D ballot they would not have had a contest until Nov. And it may have been an easy win in Nov if most voters in the county dislike the incumbent.

But then again, if you are an R and you ran as a D in the primary, you have the job of informing everyone in your RED county that you really are an R...it gets confusing.

[geiger]

30. confused thinking indeed. i told them all that it was the most weird blog thread

I have ever read.

[Kukesa]

28. What, the truth upsets them? Way to go, poli! n/t

[VolcanoJen]

34. Botany started a great GD:P post about it here....

Clinton won Ohio? 12,000 registered Dems produce 28,000 votes

There's an active poster in the thread who refutes the arguments with a typical cut-and-paste, but there really is some good stuff within that thread.

And be sure to read this:

http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/03/rushing-to-reas.html

Go and check the exit polls. In Wisconsin, Republicans made up 9 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Obama won them 72-28 over Clinton. Just as tellingly, 14 percent of primary voters said they were "conservative," and Obama won them 59-40, a bigger margin than he won with liberals or moderates. Tactical voters who said Obama stood a better chance of winning in November? They went for him 87-13.

Now, look at Ohio. Once again 9 percent of voters were Republicans, but Obama and Clinton split them evenly, 49-49. Once again, 14 percent of voters were "conservatives," and Obama and Clinton split them 48-48. (Obama did better with them than he did with liberals and moderates.) Those tactical voters who thought Obama could win gave him a 80-18 victory, a margin twelve points smaller than the margin in Wisconsin.

It's a similar story in Texas, where Limbaugh has the most listeners of any of these states. Obama won the Republican vote 52-47, but conservatives (22 percent of all voters, up from 15 percent in the Kerry-Edwards primary) went against Obama. For the first time since Super Tuesday, they were Clinton's best ideological group: She won them 53-43. And Clinton won 13 percent of the people who said Obama was the most electable candidate.

Ohio didn't wind up being very close, but Clinton won the Texas primary by about 98,000 votes out of 2.8 million cast. If the exits are right, about 252,000 of those voters were Republicans, and about 618,000 were conservatives. Clinton truly might have won the Texas primary on the backs of Rush Limbaugh listeners.

[MeDeMax]

35. Ohio may have been closer, weather co-operating

the roads and sidewalks were icy & treacherous around cleveland, another urban stronghold for Obama.

Akron (summit county) went for Hillary 69,000 to 55,000.

One thing is for sure, the Non-Partisans did not want to sit on the sidelines.

[MeDeMax]

36. in the long run the "Rush" driven crossover factor may be doing us a favor

A lawyer friend of mine voted for Hillary while her husband, also a lawyer, voted for Obama.

Exercising her fine legal mind she convinced both of us that having this contest continue into April and beyond is actually a good thing for the party.

The continued historic choice between the two keeps McCain off the air, even Rush is forced to talk about them everyday to hold the interest of his audience.

But you can count on Repubs to introduce war related bills in the senate, that create talking points & attack points for McCain before Nov.

[Kukesa]

38. Hmmm . . . Interesting take. n/t

[VolcanoJen]

39. I'm inclined to agree...

... and I'm looking for the silver lining. I do think that Clinton's negative turn worked as hoped in the three-week timeframe, but isn't a sustainable strategy. Ed Rendell did an awful job for Clinton this weekend, pushing the "electoral votes and popular votes don't matter, only big states matter" meme. When this kind of talk first started coming from the Clinton campaign, Obama set fire and racked up 11 straight post-Super Tuesday wins.

One thing is for certain: this election is historic, intense, and has surprised us at every turn. It is likely to do so a few more times.

(Have I mentioned that, despite all the DU griping and back-and-forth, as a political junkie I am just loving this shit?)

[Kukesa]

40. Not surprising, political junkie that you are. n/t

[MeDeMax]

41. aren't we all ?

(loving this shit, that is)

I noticed that the last 10 times I flicked over to Fox News guess what they were talking about ?

Yep ! the dem primary and how the party lords are cheating poor Hillary out of her delegates from FL & MI. Charlie Crist is going to have to take responsibility for this screw up somewhere.

Keep doing that for a few more weeks Fox News and most of your viewers won't even remember who McCain is :-)

[MeDeMax]

42. many switching parties in PA ahead of the primary

They have a closed primary, but you can change your party affiliation to D by Mon the 24th.

http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20080322_ap_afterprimaryrepublicanslookingtowinbackpartyswitchers.html

After primary, Republicans looking to win back party-switchers

PETER JACKSON

The Associated Press

HARRISBURG, Pa. - These are tough times for the state's Republican Party.

Republican voters are defecting by the thousands in Pennsylvania, all while the national media spotlight remains trained on the Democratic presidential candidates heading into the state's primary next month.

...

Recent voter registration trends have been far more encouraging for the Democrats, whose membership is all but certain to exceed 4 million , a level that neither party has attained before , by Monday's deadline for joining or changing parties.

Since last fall's election, the number of voters registered as Democrats has increased by more than 111,000 statewide , about 3 percent , while Republican enrollment shrank by more than 13,000, or 0.4 percent.

Since January, of the more than 68,000 registered voters who changed their party affiliation, those who enrolled as Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 3-1.

"I think it speaks volumes about where our party is headed," said T.J. Rooney, Gleason's Democratic counterpart.

...

[Kukesa]

43. Which brings us back to your OP. Hope? n/t