Voinovich sparks intense maneuvering
By Steve Hoffman
Beacon Journal editorial writer
Published on Thursday, Jan 15, 2009
With the sudden ferocity of a winter storm, the 2010 political season swept into Ohio this week, triggered by veteran Republican George Voinovich's decision not to seek a third term in the U.S. Senate in two years. Behind-the-scenes maneuvering for top statewide elections was already under way, as has become the norm, but Voinovich's announcement rapidly accelerated the pace.
As noted last week, 2009 doesn't look like much fun, anyway. Soon, the governor and legislature will begin grappling with the details of the next two-year state budget and how to fix school funding. So let's skip ahead to 2010.
Rob Portman quickly announced his Senate candidacy, an effort to shut down the possibility of a bitter, crowded primary his party can ill-afford. The Cincinnati-area Republican could succeed on that front. He would then face a statewide general election (his first) that would present difficult challenges.
Portman's most likely primary challengers appear to be Mike DeWine, the former U.S. Senator, and Mary Taylor, state auditor.
But DeWine, like Voinovich a pragmatic moderate, just lost a re-election bid in 2006. Under President Bush, the party has moved to the right, becoming more ideological, tending to distance DeWine from the GOP's core voters. That same calculation probably affected Voinovich's decision, even with his strong track record of appeal in Democratic-dominated Northeast Ohio.
Taylor is in her first term as auditor, and her re-election is essential if Republican are to control the apportionment board, which will redraw state legislative districts after the 2010 census. The board is controlled by the governor, auditor and secretary of state. Shaping legislative districts confers huge advantages on Election Day, and would help the Republicans keep control of the state Senate.
Besides, Taylor had just four years in the state legislature and a brief stay on the City Council in Green before her race in 2006. While she was the only Republican to win a statewide nonjudicial office that year, a boost to her career, she would do the party a huge favor running for re-election in 2010. She could fight later for a higher office.
Portman, a former U.S. House member, is well-known and well-liked in the state's Republican bastions. That's good in a primary, and would give him a money pipeline. His problems start in the general election campaign, when he would face the same issue any U.S. House member faces when jumping to a statewide race: Very few voters outside your district know who you are.
The question for Portman is: What happens when voters learn he left Congress in 2005 to become President Bush's trade representative and then budget director? (Portman returned to Ohio in 2007.) Democrats are already chaining him to the Bush legacy.
Among Democrats, Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor and former state attorney general, is eyeing the race, but cooly. He is a veteran, and an effective fund-raiser, but his only other statewide victory (besides being on the ticket with Ted Strickland) was for attorney general in 1990.
Fisher's coolness could open the door for others to jump in, most notably Tim Ryan, the U.S. House member from Niles, a rising star in his party.
Ryan, elected in 2002, is ambitious and an able campaigner who would work hard to become known across the state. He likes his seat on the Appropriations Committee, which gives him the power to deliver for the folks back home, but is considering the race.
Jennifer Brunner, in her first term as Ohio secretary of state, also has been a standout in her party. Despite everything the Republicans threw at her last year, the former judge ran a smooth election. But she has the same apportionment board troubles as Taylor.
If she wins re-election in 2010, and Strickland wins a second term as governor, Democrats would finally get control of the apportionment board, fundamentally altering the balance of power in state politics. Former Ohio House Speaker Jon Husted, a Republican now in the Senate, is said to be considering a race against Brunner.
The drama of the 2010 governor's race is unfolding at a much slower pace, waiting for a spark. State Sen. Kevin Coughlin's announcement of his candidacy this week wasn't it. The Cuyahoga Falls Republican likes to build name recognition, but former U.S. Rep. John Kasich (the Fox News commentator) has been doing the grunt work of building a statewide campaign.
This year will be telling. Strickland must start to take ownership of the issues on which he campaigned in 2006. Kasich, Coughlin and, perhaps, DeWine, will be ready to pounce.
http://www.ohio.com/editorial/commentary/37622509.html
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