Kerry lost 369 votes at one OH polling place

[jfern]

115 at another, and hundreds at others.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/12/2/44647/2043

Time to get Ohio to do something so that this won't happen again.

[mulethree]

1. Cleveland 11 - little clearer in the Board of Ed race

I J N and A precincts smell bad too

STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION 11TH DISTRICT       Place on Ballot #

                                              11C   11D   11P 
 
    01V E. BROWN       180,410  53.91%         2     1     1
    02C M. CORRIGAN     92,461  27.63%         3     2     2
    03C L. LESNICK      61,780  18.46%         1     3     3
                                                              
 
                                                              
 
                                                              
 
                       01   02   03  01 %  02 %  03 %
2501  CLEVELAND 11A   103    76  26   50%   37%   13% X       

2502  CLEVELAND 11B   275    82  48   68%   20%   12%
2503  CLEVELAND 11C   166   135  75   44%   36%   20% X   
2504  CLEVELAND 11D   173   107  75   49%   30%   21% X       

2505  CLEVELAND 11E   117    21  18   75%   13%   12%
2506  CLEVELAND 11F   342    51  35   80%   12%    8%
2507  CLEVELAND 11G   197    45  25   74%   17%    9%
2508  CLEVELAND 11H   252    92  54   63%   23%   14%
2509  CLEVELAND 11I   118    99  57   43%   36%   21% X       

2510  CLEVELAND 11J   121    91  62   44%   33%   23% X       

2511  CLEVELAND 11K   197    56  54   64%   18%   18%
2512  CLEVELAND 11L   164    61  41   62%   23%   15%
2513  CLEVELAND 11M   315   107  31   70%   24%    7%
2514  CLEVELAND 11N   135    79  60   49%   29%   22% X       

2515  CLEVELAND 11O   239    52  34   74%   16%   10%
2516  CLEVELAND 11P   201   118  62   53%   31%   16% X       

2517  CLEVELAND 11Q   212    76  30   67%   24%    9%
2518  CLEVELAND 11R   207    42  30   74%   15%   11%
2519  CLEVELAND 11S   318    80  28   75%   19%    7%
2520  CLEVELAND 11T   254    61  50   70%   17%   14%
2521  CLEVELAND 11U   165    31  19   77%   14%    9%
                                                              
 
CLEVELAND WARD 11    4271  1562 914   63%   23%   14%

[mulethree]

2. AIJL

11A, 11I, 11J, 11L voted in same place 17403 NOTTINGHAM ROAD

11a BCL
11i LBC
11j BCL
11l LBC

11N, 11E, 10I, 10T vote together 15000 LAKESHORE BV.

11n CLB
11e CLB
10i LBC
10t CLB

so 11L and 11E snuck by me.


15000 Lakeshore is 3/4 CLB and 1/4 LBC but 11n stands out and 11e doesn't


Perhaps some poll workers are directing people to the right machine for their precinct and other poll workers are letting their people pick another precinct's machine?

But basically any polling station with more than one precinct is screwed up? and not just the pres vote but every contested race?

Well Kudos to the guys in charge of Cuyahoga election data. Good map, polling places and ballots online etc. But something is screwed with their election worker training or supervision.

[mulethree]

3. combined file

excel (V5) spreadsheet http://home.comcast.net/~lawrence_hall/public/cuyahoga-locations-and-tallies.xls

Votelocseq is a sequence number for the precinct groupings, sort bu this if you want them clustered by polling place.

Eq52seq Is that first column from the M52 file, some kind of precinct number.

I don't see any more numbers that stand out like big differences between neighborhood precincts. There is a huge spread of turnouts from like 85% to 22%

[k8conant]

4. Votelocseq doesn't cluster by polling place

...more like wards.

[mulethree]

6. example

If you sort by votelocseq it will group together the precincts
that 
vote at the same polling place.  Notice that ward Bay Villiage
02 has 2 voting places with one precinct each, while the 5th
polling place has two precincts from the 03 ward and two from
the 04 ward. 


	                  Votelocseq	Eq52seq	BadnarikBush	Kerry
 PRECINCT(S)	                8				
        BAY VILLAGE -01- A	9	111	0	246	198
        BAY VILLAGE -01- B	11	112	0	228	230
        BAY VILLAGE -01- C	13	113	0	207	213
        BAY VILLAGE -01- D	14	114	1	248	203
        BAY VILLAGE -01- E	15	115	1	243	243
 PRECINCT(S)	                16				
        BAY VILLAGE -02- C	17	123	4	216	184
 PRECINCT(S)	                20				
        BAY VILLAGE -02- D	21	124	0	208	216
 PRECINCT(S)	                24				
        BAY VILLAGE -03- A	25	131	0	241	173
        BAY VILLAGE -03- C	27	133	0	271	155
        BAY VILLAGE -03- D	29	134	1	244	157
 PRECINCT(S)	                30				
        BAY VILLAGE -03- B	31	132	2	208	172
        BAY VILLAGE -03- E	33	135	0	258	169
        BAY VILLAGE -04- D	35	144	1	228	195
        BAY VILLAGE -04- E	36	145	0	198	114
 PRECINCT(S)	37				

[rerdavies]

5. Sobering Turnout Statistic

New user, can't create a thread, otherwise I would post this to a new thread. (Strange feature). If anyone feels like crossposting this to a fresh thread, please feel free.

I just finished cranking some of the numbers from the final report of the Cuyahoga BOE. Here's an improved version of the now-famous graph of Kerry Support vs. Voter Turnout in Cuyahoga county:



What I found interesting where all those outliers in the lower-right quadrant of the graph. Many precincts -- not just the tiny precincts -- have shockingly low turnout, and are hanging way off the general curve.

You can focus in even further. Look at the precincts on the graph that fall below the 40% turnout line. There's some big precincts there.

It seems that many of these precincts seem to be in Cleveland. CLEVELAND 7V would be a good example: 971 registered voters (it's a huge precinct), but only 288 voted.

That got me thinking. The problem with most of the voting conspiracy theories is that they manage to identify at best 3 or 4 thousand votes at a time. That's no way to steal an election.

Let's say you wanted to steal an election. Let's say you under-allocated machines to minority Cleveland precincts. Let's say that all defective machines are allocated to the same precints, and let's say you don't issue replacements for non-functioning machines, despite the fact that you 60 or 70 spares held back. (Or even simpler, just send a registered voters into these precincts early in the morning, to break machines in these precints. Let's say that a lot of registered voters are determined to cast their vote even if it means standing in line for eight or ten hours, but are not able to do so because of other commitments such as work or children. Let's say that's as much as 30 or 40% of registered voters in working class precints.

Now, let's wave a magic wand and pretend that none of those things allegedly happened. Let's pretend that nobody had to wait more than an hour or two. Let's pretend that turnouts in Cleveland precincts were good across the board. How would things look if that were true?

What if --- admittedly, this is a big what if --- what if voter turnout had been at least 66% (the county average) in all precincts in Cuyahoga county? What if the turnout had been decent in all of the Cleveland precincts? It's easy enough to swag this number. Just scale the actual votes cast by Max(0.66,actualturnout)/actualturnout.

Here's how many votes Kerry gains over Bush:

49,166

Not quite enough to carry Ohio, but this is only one of several obvious target counties in Ohio.

P.S. What's with the BROOK PARK 3-A precint? Four registered voters, none of whom voted? I'm sure there's a fascinating story in there somewhere. Anyone know what it is.

[mulethree]

7. no excuse for not having enough machines, or broken ones

These are punch card ballots. You stick a card into a holder and use
a stylus to poke holes out of the card with the holder guiding your holes to be in the right places.

I don't see how you could break one of these. And they should be really cheap, not like a $7,000 electronic machine. So theres no excuse not to have plenty. Well, no valid reason.

If there are lines, I would expect it to be the people finding names in the sign-in book. You could make it hard to find names in the book, by not having the names in there. Make them double and triple check, confirm the right precinct and issue a provisional ballot, that would slow the sign-in line up.

The Franklin county machine distribution scam looks like around 20,000 votes suppressed. Bush would have gotten 4,000 or so of those so Kerry was shorted 16,000 or so in Franklin. But this may be quite different as Cuyahoga should have no excuse for a machine shortage.

One other thing I found, the Dems in Cuyahoga pay more attention to lower races. Local judges and state school board were more likely to get voted on in the democratic precincts. So dems evidently spent more time completing their ballots.

The user jmknapp has done a lot on vote suppression with maps and charts that will make you go Hmm ooh ahh - most are in "2004 Election Results and Discussion"

Heres one relavent to this thread - lots more

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x125611#125680

[Philostopher]

8. What happened various places in 2000...

with the punch machines in Florida was that whomever was responsible for emptying out the 'catchers' of the chads didn't empty them out, so they were full. It's darned near impossible to get a clean vote if you can't push the stylus all the way through the card, and not everybody is as anal retentive about checking their punch cards as I always was -- I always looked to make sure all the chads were off, then ran my hand over the back of the card. But, then, I live in a mostly white middle-class suburb, so our machines were empty when they were delivered to our polling place from wherever they're stored. And I didn't wait in line nine hours in forty degree rain and twenty mile per hour winds to vote.

Those cards frequently are tossed as 'undervotes' if the chad's not punched all the way out, or at least they were in Florida. If the reservoirs in the machines had been clean there, in 2000, there would have been many fewer 'spoiled' ballots and undervotes. I wonder if that might have been a problem in some of the urban Ohio counties?