How close will Kerry be on Tuesday

[fishwax]

I know he's not going to win Oklahoma. I'm not that delusional. But I've just got this overwhelming feeling (part of my general optimism lately) that Oklahoma will be closer than people think.

The last poll I saw had a 33 point spread. In 2000, the spread was 22. I don't see any way bush carries OK by 33 points, and I'm almost positive it will be less than 20. I think it's likely that it will be under 15, which, honestly, I would find pretty exciting.

I've been thinking a lot about the '98 governor's race, when everyone was amazed that Boyd only lost by 17 percentage points.

[Coyote_Bandit]

1. I Agree

it will be closer here than expected. Earlier today I drove about a half mile of neighborhood streets off the southeast corner of 51st and Lewis in Tulsa. Yard signs in that little corner of Tulsa would indicate a pretty even split between the candidates. I really can't see Kerry taking the state. But he will do better here than expected. There is lots of frustration here expecially with respect to the economy.

[Catch22Dem]

5. drive down my street

In broken arrow. it's sick!

[RoyGBiv]

2. One Thing to Remember ...

With Oklahoma's smaller population and especially with its small voter pool, huge percentage swings can take place with relatively small shifts in the vote number. In the 2000 race 10,000 votes equaled one percentage point. The same kind of vote swing in a state like, for instance, California would barely register. Those kinds of shifts do happen, and they are amplified by the process of statistical extrapolation of poll samplings. This is one of many reasons polls in OK are notoriously inaccurate. Another is that polling companies with the necessary resources to conduct good polls rarely bother with OK.

Also, due in part to candidate disinterest in the state, exacerbated by "Good Ol' Boy" politics-as-usual, there are more undecideds, fewer people really worked up about the race who go all out to give a firm opinion. This has been the case with the Senate race for while, although people tend to be more firm on that than they were a couple months ago.

In any case, I've never seen a poll in OK be accurate with regard to the Presidential race, at least as a matter of percentage points. Yeah, it always goes Repug, but the spread never seems on the mark.

The latest poll for OK has Kerry at 28%. I simply do not believe that.

[sazemisery]

3. Report from Muskogee

I talked to a worker in the County Election Board today and she said they had mailed out over 1000 absentee ballots. She said they never had that many requests before. Our county pupulation is 40 some odd thousand total so I expect voter turnout to be high. I will vote Monday afternoon to see how many early voters and compare it to 2000

[sazemisery]

4. Update from Muskogee

My husband just voted early at the election board. He was #637! They told him they were seeing about 100 voters and hour! There has never been this much early voting ever!