How is Carol Voisin doing?

[Roxy66]

I haven't been able to find any polls on her.

[LWolf]

1. Neither have I.

The only thing I've heard came from my adult son, who asked me if I'd seen her commercial ("Have You Had Enough.") He said it was funny, and good enough that she deserved a vote just for the commercial. That woke me up quickly; he has been a defiant non-voter his entire life, swearing that he won't participate in a flawed, corrupt system. So I looked up the commercial. It is, indeed, good.

I did vote for her the weekend before last. :shrug:

[doubleplusgood]

2. here's some numbers

Representative In Congress, 2nd District Results by County
Jack Alan Brown, Jr. (Constitution) 1,625 2.38%
Carol Voisin (Democrat) 23,217 33.95%
Greg Walden (Republican) 43,437 63.52%
Write-in Votes 101 .15%
Total 68,380

Tough district for a D pickup.

You can check here for updates: http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2006_G100_301_305.htm

[file83]

3. I got to meet her a few weeks ago in Bend at the screening of "Iraq for Sale"

She was great. This district is very tough for Dems - but the results are NOT all in yet - so we'll have to keep an eye on it! Go Voisin!!!

[Ken Burch]

4. That district is basically Eastern Oregon

Which is more a less a game preserve for Dittoheads.

Most folks there probably DID think Michael J. Fox was faking it.

[LWolf]

5. central and eastern oregon

and, thank you very much, there are many thoughtful people here. Yes, there are some hardcore rural republicans. I object to my home being referred to as "a game preserve for Dittoheads," however. My own state rep left the republican party and became an independent this year, and I know many local republicans who share his sentiments. I know both Democrats and Republicans in my neighborhood, and if my students were voting instead of their parents, Democrats would win easily.

I thought Voisin did decently here considering the political makeup of the area, and I think a Democrat more in tune with rural farmer/rancher issues could make the area competitive.

[Ken Burch]

6. I know there are good progressive people there, and I meant no insult to them or you...

I was just trying to point out how hard it is for a Dem in that district.

No offence to you intended.

[0rganism]

7. Two things are needed to unseat a Repub in the 2nd district

1) An excellent Democratic candidate with solid party backing -- Carol Voisin was probably good enough to carry most of the D's in the district, but the candidate has to do a lot more than that. I don't know how much support she got from the DNCC or the state Dems, but I think the Dems would need to outspend the Republicans by quite a bit for this seat to turn.

2) An excellent Constitution party candidate, to split the conservative nutjob vote. If Jack Brown Jr. picks up 16250 instead of 1625, suddenly we're looking at a race instead of a blowout. And it can't be a Libertarian, either; we're talking hardcore social conservatives out there, not the proverbial pot-smoking Republicans.

As such, Walden's own qualities as a rep have little to do with the likelihood of Dems picking up the seat. This is the district Walden won after his predecessor Wes Cooley (R-Sociopath) was discovered to have lied about his military service in the published voter guide. The people in the 2nd are more likely to unseat Walden in a primary than a general election.