I'm concerned about Frohnmayer's senate bid

[0rganism]

John Frohnmayer (R-Former) was talking up his campaign on the KPOJ morning show today, said all the "politically correct" stuff, but I smell a rat. And the hosts didn't ask him the tough questions, e.g. who would he caucus with in DC if he won, why isn't he running in the Democratic primary instead of as a 3rd-party candidate, and what effect he thought his candidacy would have on incumbent senator Smith's prospects for re-election. It will be interesting to cross-compare his campaign contributers.

I think, if he goes all the way to November with his candidacy, we'll see the race get much much tougher for the Democratic nominee. And it would not surprise me one bit if the RNC picked up on this and started bankrolling more progressive indy candidates in perceived-vulnerable states. Meanwhile, we get stuck with another 6 years of Gordo, which sucks.

[sandnsea]

1. If he peels off Gordo's moderates

Dems win. I don't know what his personal motivation is, but that's the way I see it. Like Perot in 1992. We might lose some votes too, but they'll lose more. I think the important issue is whether he's going to muddle the issues like I see most 3rd party candidates do. We'll have to see, but I kind of think this is going to be ok in the long run.

[0rganism]

2. Does he have even *one* position that appeals mostly to moderate Rs?

Everything I've read or heard on his platform so far positions him to steal the progressives away from the Democrats. In particular, his positions on impeachment and single-payer health care would be likely to repel moderate Republicans rather than attract them. Naturally, I'm open to reading more about your take on why he's a sink for moderate R votes rather than progressives. He comes across as a candidate for disgruntled Democrats.

[sandnsea]

3. When far left meets far right

it makes for strange bedfellows. Republicans who oppose the war and want a change will look at the I and consider it. Depending on how he runs his campaign, I see him picking up those folks because he won't let Smith paint himself as a moderate the way he's been able to get away with it in the past. Like I said, it all depends on the campaign he runs, but I think Republicans are the ones who are going to be looking for any alternative possible. Hell, we should probably get Al Pearn to run. His ego would convince him to do it, and he'd suck a whole other group of voters away from Smith.

[0rganism]

4. I don't see impeachment positioning giving him cred with R voters of any kind

Frohnmayer's rhetoric will almost certainly distance him from the Republican base, who continue to believe Bush is an anointed servant of God, justified in all activities by virtue of his Divine Grace. Likewise, there are many political moderates party-affiliated and otherwise who believe impeachment is practically a waste of time regardless of crimes committed, as that is the position being touted as mainstream. So that's a whole segment of potential moderate and rightwing votes out the window right off the bat, on that issue alone.

Anti-war libertarians and moderate voters who may have favored impeachment as a response to crimes of the past 7 years will probably look at the obvious fact that after January 2009 it won't matter anyway, discount it as an issue, and decide based on other positions. Among those, single payer healthcare will serve to alienate most if not all of the economic conservatives.

Frohnmayer is running with a platform that filters out voters who
a) don't care for Bush's impeachment over something obscure like signing statements
b) dislike the notion of centrally-funded universal healthcare

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that seems to leave Gordo's supporters essentially untouched.

Conversely, his declared positions are aligned with those who
a) think the president should be impeached
b) favor universal health care

How can that not erode support for the Democratic candidates?

[sandnsea]

5. 13% do

50% of Independents.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/arg_and_others_on_impeachment.php

It won't matter as it pertains to impeachment specifically, but those numbers are a real marker as to where people are at with the Republicans. You know, a lot of people are Dems at heart. They've just been programmed to vote against Dems. Like the folks in the south who believe Dems are going to take away their bibles. Who knows what they'd do with a different kind of Independent.

[Sukie1941]

6. John.......class of 1960.....Medford

One of our best football players in the class of 1960 (Coach Spigelberg). My class! Won state championships in baseball, football, basketball!