This distresses me

[quakerboy]

I don't get it.

www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae17f79-860b-4401-a25b-bf872ed6db69

[Karl_Bonner_1982]

1. Smith plus the Constitution candidate = 57% , this is not good

According to this poll, 57% of the voters plan on voting either Republican or Constitution for Senate. That comes as a bit of a surprise. Maybe a lot of the Brownlow voters don't really agree with a far-right agenda and are just voting that way because it's a third party, but you can't be sure...

There will probably be other surveys done. It'll be interesting to see where this one leads as the election gets close.

[quakerboy]

2. Yeah. Ive been following the polls on this one

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/or/oregon_senate-566.html

If there are others out there, I would definitely be interested in links.

It just seems so bizarre. I have no doubt that Obama will carry here with relative ease. But I am less certain that that will carry down to Merkley. I was talking to some family recently, and I was really surprised to hear that though they had no doubt they were going for Obama, they thought they might vote for Smith. I am gunna have to do sum edjukatin. I hope the rest of you do the same. I guess I will have to bite the bullet and add a Merkley sticker to my car, next to the Obama one.

[Trajan]

3. Four points ...

1) Gordon Smith is the incumbent ... You have to beat the champ; you cannot match him punch by punch : you will lose ... which leads to .....

2) Smith is running an 'effective' campaign .... He is hammering the 'moderate-bipartisan' angle to death, and getting traction with it ... he knows being a dogmatic republican is unattractive to moderates and independents, and he has crafted a message of 'reaching across the aisle' that is so far unblunted .... which leads to ....

3) Merkley, on the other hand, is running an anemic campaign, which seems weak and uninspiring in itself, and in comparison to Smith's juggernaut. The DSCC has spent some money on his behalf, but their message is scattershot and pedestrian ... which leads to ...

4) The Democrats in general have lost their way in the political landscape .... They simply cannot depend that not being a republican at a time when that brand is damaged is enough to carry the day .... They need to stand for something .... they need to GET IN FRONT OF THE ELECTORATE, and say WHO they are, WHAT they believe in, and WHY they believe in it .... They need to stand FOR something to win the hearts and minds of the American people .... They need to promote the development of Middle Class institutions developed in the progressive era, like wage improvements, the return of public education funding (both job training and college grants), promoting UNION membership, and the reduction of those incentives that lead to the offshoring of our manufacturing base to low wage, no pension, no benefit nations .... We cannot compete with slaves ....


Smith is going to win this .... Merkley has already lost (in my view) because he has presented no attractive policies that could leverage his efforts to beat 'The Champ' .... his voice has been puny in the public sphere .... IF he has money, then why is he holding back ? .... Smith has been running ads for months now .... From what I see in the Portland broadcast market, Merkley has VERY few spots on the air .... What is he waiting for ?

The fact that the Democrats on the national level have no voice annunciating WHAT they stand for and WHERE they want to go is allowing McCain to keep level with Obama, and has provided little footing for Merkley to rely on as a rallying cry to voters .... I blame the Democratic Party leadership for such a lackluster effort to promote party principles and philosophies .....

WHERE is our JFK ? ..... Even Obama, in his triangulations during the General Election cycle, has failed (on the whole) to bring Democratic Party values to the fore .....

WHO the fuck are the Democrats and what the fuck do they stand for ?

Beats me ....

[quakerboy]

4. What are the chances

that Merkley is saving up for a blitz closer to the actual election? The only add Ive caught so far is the one on 620, which kinda seems like preaching to the choir. I want some hope here, that there is a plan of some sort. I wish I was hearing anything about what Merkley was doing. Anything, anywhere.

I dunno. I met him at the delegate choosing thingie. He seemed decently competent. Far taller and with more presence than the few pictures I had seen. I picked Novick, but I was ok with either. I liked him enough to put a sign up, but not enough to deface my car with another sticker.

I dunno. I guess I just want someone to say "its ok, the election is a ways off still, heres the historic example that shows advertising is wasted this early, don't Panic"




And, as of right now, I am seeing my first anti-smith add on the TV. Good times.

[Trajan]

5. It would be a mistake to 'wait' until the end to 'blitz' the voters ...

That allows your opponent free rein to define you, and without an effective response to EACH message thrust (positive OR negative), then those definitions will become burnished and lock into the voters minds .... It is now 'common knowledge' that Smith works 'across the aisle', because that is what his ads trumpet so loudly ..... Nevermind that he has voted AGAINST the Democrats 99% of the time: You arent hearing about that: not enough ....

The Democrats have to take control of the game from the start, and provide a strategy that ACTIVELY brings the fight to our opponents .....