Can same-sex marriage be legalized in Oregon in 2010?

[Athelwulf]

Nate Silver has a nice post analyzing the data surrounding same-sex marriage. He finds that support for banning same-sex marriage erodes by roughly two percentage points every year, on average. By his calculations, Oregon is on the tipping point right now: He predicts that this very year, about 50% of Oregonians would vote against a ban on same-sex marriage if one were being voted on right now.

On one hand, there are apparently some anomalies that I can't figure out. California voted for Prop 22 back in March 2000 (enacting the statutory ban on same-sex marriage) by 61.4%. Prop 8 passed with 52.24%. This is a shift of 9.16 percentage points over 8 years and 8 months. This works out to a shift of about 0.95 percentage points per year. If California conformed to the average of two points per year, it would have been on the tipping point back in 2006, and only about 44% would have voted for Prop 8.

On another hand, Oregon's trend towards support for same-sex marriage seems to closely follow, or even outpace, California's trend if you compare Prop 22 and Prop 8 to Measure 36. Let's use the 0.95 figure from above. By November 2004, about 57% of Californians would have supported a ban on same-sex marriage, which is almost exactly the vote for Measure 36: 56.63%. Silver claims that Oregon is on the tipping point this year, but California is on the tipping point next year.

What this boils down to is, I think we have a shot at legalizing same-sex marriage in Oregon in the very near future, if we appeal to the electorate by putting a measure on the ballot. Even if the majority of Oregonians still oppose same-sex marriage, my guess is the margin is very narrow now. If so, then it's only a matter of time.

Thoughts?

[Athelwulf]

1. An afterthought.

If Bill Sizemore can assault our ballots with senseless measures year after year, then surely we are justified in getting a good measure on the ballot for a change.

[Athelwulf]

2. No ideas at all? n/t

[sandnsea]

3. We have to repeal the Constitutional Amendment

I think you underestimate the number of people who differentiate between marriage and civil unions. I think 2010 is a bit soon. We'll need at least ten years for the Korean War generation to dwindle.