Pennsylvania: Comparing current poll results vs. 2004 election (regions/counties)

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

Okay, as a PA resident I had some selfish interest in this exercise. With all the candidate visits, the stated strategy by the McCain campaign to "flip" PA, and Gov. Rendell's frequent statements about the race being closer than the polls, I decided to do a little digging. I found two recent PA polls that showed what the breakdown is by regions/counties.

There are some areas to watch. Philadelphia turnout needs to exceed 2004 to offset some of the current poll lag in the southwest "Kerry counties of 2004".

First the good news. It looks like Obama is doing a bit better in the counties surrounding Philadelphia but I did not list them in this post...you can check them at the links if you wish.

Obama is beating Kerry's percentage in the largest county of Philadelphia:

Philadelphia 2004
Kerry 80.4% 542,205
Bush 19.3% 130,099
Other 0.3% 1,765

Philadelphia 2008
October 27, 2008
The Temple Poll
Obama 86%
McCain 12%
Unsure 2%

Quinnipiac University
October 23, 2008
Obama 82%
McCain 17%
Unsure 1%



OK, now here is where the GOP is getting the idea they can pull out a PA win. NOTE: It is hard to know exactly which counties pollsters include in a "region" but here's a rough comparison.

Allegheny (includes city of Pittsburgh)and
Kerry 57.2% 368,912
Bush 42.1% 271,925
Other 0.7% 4,632

surrounding southwest region 2004

Beaver
Kerry 51.1% 42,146
Bush 48.4% 39,916
Other 0.6% 481

Washington
Kerry 50.1% 48,225
Bush 49.6% 47,673
Other 0.3% 279

Fayette
Kerry 53.2% 29,120
Bush 45.8% 25,045
Other 1.0% 542

Allegheny and SW region 2008

October 27, 2008
The Temple Poll

Allegheny County
Obama 49%
McCain 47%
Unsure 4%

SW Region
Southwest
Obama 47%
McCain 44%
Unsure 7%

Quinnipiac University
October 23, 2008

Allegheny
Obama 54%
McCain 39%
Unsure 2%

SW Region
Obama 41%
McCain 51%
Unsure 2%

http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/clog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/temple-poll-october-27-2008-press-release-and-topline-results1.pdf
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=2004&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[femmocrat]

1. K&R

Thank you for the excellent research!

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

2. You're welcome. I wanted to see if Rendell's recent comments were legit.

Seems like Ed is NOT just an attention-whore.

We have work to do in PA.

[tigereye]

3. I'm not sure Alleg. is that close...

lots of suburbanites seem to be for Obama....

[I Have A Dream]

4. I was driving through Greentree this weekend...

and it was really disheartening to see how many McCain signs there were; they were everywhere. :(

[tigereye]

5. well, lets hope the numbers are a bit better for Obama than those Kerry numbers

the OP cited. Those were surprising.


Maybe the large city turn-out of new Dems will discount some of that.