Update on Some 2010 Congressional Races in PA.

[JPZenger]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/tag/Jim%20Gerlach

Excerpts:

April 28th:

"Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party's nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010. After Arlen Specter's party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives."

"Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I'm not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn't exactly a popular figure within the GOP's base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore."

"PA-06: We have at least a warm body lined up in PA-06: Doug Pike, who hasn't held elected office but wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer for a number of years, was an aide to Paul Tsongas, and is the son of Rep. Otis Pike (of New York). A better-known candidate may still crop up, especially if Rep. Jim Gerlach follows through on his likely plans to bail on his increasingly-Democratic seat (Obama won 58-41) and run for Pennsylvania governor instead."
---

The blogger at swingstate also has a proposal for how PA US House districts could be redesigned after the 2010 census. He says PA. will probably lose a House seat, and the goal is to make sure that is a current GOP seat. He said the best opportunities for Dem gains are from Gerlach and Dent's seats, if their districts are revised to include more Dems(or if one of them leaves to run for a different office).

He also would like to give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more Dems. He proposes to spread out some of the Dems who are concentrated in solidly Dem districts in Phila.

[JPZenger]

1. Open House Seats

The following is a periodically updated list of US House seats that may become vacant. The big questions in PA involve whether Gerlach leaves to run for Governor (or Senate) and whether Sestak leaves for a Senate run.

I think Sestak is the strongest Dem candidate for Senate, and he has the biggest fundraising amount in the bank. The only announced Dem candidate for Senate is Torcella, who was head of the Constitution Center. I think the Dems will hold off on challenging Specter for the Dem nomination until Specter does some things to show he is not a true-blue Democrat. Right now, they want it to look like Specter is their best buddy, but it won't last.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4858/house-open-seat-watch-42909

[MH1]

6. I agree that Sestak is the best candidate for Senate

I think he's playing it smart by pressuring Specter. If Specter starts acting more like a Democrat, Sestak gets credit for pushing him; if Specter continues to vote like a republican, the rank and file Dems in PA are not going to want him crammed down our throats in the primary, and Sestak will be well placed. I think most people in the state don't even know who Torsella is.

[Number9Dream]

2. If Dent only runs for Rep. again...

Have you heard of any Dems who might run against him in the 15th district?

[JPZenger]

3. Its always very tough to find candidates in 15th

In a perfect world, Paul McHale would move back from DC and run for his old house seat.

The people who could win won't run, and the people who will run can't win. Dent is personally popular, and has avoided making enemies. It is hard to portray him as a hardcore right-winger who needs to be replaced ASAP.

[JPZenger]

4. Ridge Being Discussed on MSM

Today, Ridge was being seriously discussed at a Republican candidate for Senate on The TV. It was either Fox or MSNBC (I forget which).

[Name removed]

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