New Poll Results on Sestak vs. Specter - 4 point difference

[JPZenger]

Email issued today from Joe Sestak:

"In a new Rasmussen poll released just this morning, we have pulled to within four points of Arlen Specter (46%- 42%)! Successive polls out this week also show us beating the Republican candidate Pat Toomey in the General Election, while Arlen Specter now trails him.

More ominous, Susquehanna Polling and Research released its own poll yesterday that its President called "staggering." Only 31% of Pennsylvania voters now believe Arlen Specter should be re-elected (down from 38% before the party switch). "When I see a re-elect in the low 30s, that's ... near fatal," he said.

Welcoming someone into the Democratic Party is one thing. Asking Democrats to fall on our sword for a 45-year Republican is something else entirely. With each passing day, as we become better known throught the state, more voters are joining us by saying its time for someone other than Arlen to represent them -- help us continue to reach the people so that their voice may be heard!"

[Number9Dream]

1. Interesting with a year to go...

Here's a link to the Rasmussen poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election

snip> "If Sestak wins the Democratic nomination, however, the race is a toss-up: 38% for Sestak and 37% for Toomey."

snip> "Republican-turned-Democratic Senator Arlen Specter trails potential GOP challenger Pat Toomey by five points in an early look at Pennsylvania's 2010 Senate race. But another Democrat, Joe Sestak, runs dead-even with the likely Republican candidate."

[daviddiano]

2. Rasmussen Poll is bogus

JPZ and others-
Rasmussen is a necon, Christian conservative. He frequently uses his polls to support/justify Republican agenda and talking points. During the 2008 election, I saw him appear on Hannity discussing in depth the previous poll showing Obama down like it was a trend. The very next morning a Rasmussen poll was released showing Obama bouncing back. Rasmussen himself surely knew the results the previous night, yet he went out of his way to go on Fox to promote the results of a previous poll that he knew to be outdated.

In this case, TOOMEY WANTS TO RUN AGAINST SESTAK. The GOP is doing everything they can to promote Sestak over Specter.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html
Pennsylvania Senate - Democratic Primary

The Specter +4 is NOWHERE near the other polling results.


In the Susquehanna Polling polling that Sestak cherry-picks, Specter is +19 over Sestak. Gee, Joe seemed to leave out that little tidbit in his press release.

[daviddiano]

3. Susquehanna Poll was +28 not +19

Oops. It was an even bigger cherry-pick than I thought.
Specter +19 is the RCP average and the Quinnipiac result.