New Susquehanna poll released shows Specter 44 Sestak 16 -neither 18

[PADEMJES12]

Fundraising numbers have been released for the 3rd quarter and a disturbing trend has been
revealed for challenger Joe Sestak. Senator Specter was able to raise 1.82 million this quarter,
giving him 8.7 million in COH. Sestak, proved to be a pretender, as he was only able to
pull in a measley 758,000, less than half that of both Pat Toomey and Senator Specter. This trend shows that
Sestak's fundraising base is drying up, which is not good news for him.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09289/1006028-100.stm

Rep. Sestak's team relying on a Rasmussen (Republican pollster) in attempting to mislead people
in emails is comparable to his campaigns earlier attempt to misuse the quote of prominent PA Dems
to give people the impression that they support him, when they do not.
Of course, I could see No Show Joe relying on Rasmussen alot, after all he is friends, has been drinking beer,
and has been propping up right wing neo con Pat Toomey. In fact, he and Toomey are both opposed to single payer,
while Sen. Specter and Rep. Kortz have said it should be on the table.

What is comical is Joe's reliance on giving Rasmussen credibility with Democrats.
Rasmussen's poll is very skewed as we all know, while in the Susquehanna poll,
No Show Joe... despite his 67 county tour has 16 percentof democrats, while 18 percent of
others surveyed would pick neither. So the accurate assessment is that No Show Joe is trailing
the "neither" option by 2% and that his fundraising base is drying up
rapidly. Look for another decline in fundraising this quarter.

[JPZenger]

1. A third poll

I agree that we have to careful about cherry-picking one outlying poll. However, this third poll shows that Specter has extremely high negatives among all PA. voters, and Specter is running even with an unknown Republican opponent after Specter's decades in office.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1379

[JPZenger]

2. Interesting comments in response

People may want to read some of the comments on dailykos from when you posted this same thing over there.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/10/18/794587/-Sestak-Fundraising-hits-the-wall,-Specter-gains-in-COH

[PADEMJES12]

3. Thanks JP

its necessary when Joe sends out reliance on a neo con Republican pollster...Rasmussen. Perhaps the only 2 that hate Specter and the Dems worse is Toomey and Mellon Scaife, but oh wait Sestak is buddy buddy w them now. RCP average has the race at +19.
I wonder when they will start adding Kortz into the mix and that other candidate from Berks? Anyone know anything about them?

[JPZenger]

4. A former judge says she is entering the race

I don't know anything about her, but there was an article that a former judge is entering the Dem primary for the Senate.

[Number9Dream]

5. Flip-flopped about Rasmussen since June

In June, you based an OP on a Rasmussen poll when it SUPPORTED Specter. Link to your 6/18/09 post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=175x15301

Weren't disparaging Rasmussen back in June, were you?

[PADEMJES12]

6. Hi Number 9

Rasmussen poll numbers in comparison now to the other numbers have as much credibility
as Joe Sestak taking in a 4800 donation from Richard Mellon Scaife.

Here is the RCP average...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html

I think the fix is in now and the GOP strategy is becoming clearer... the game plan is set to try and get Toomey to
take on Sestak because he doesnt want to face Specter again. Thus Toomey and hardcore repubs
like Rasmussen and Scaife will aid and abet Sestak to try and get rid of Specter.
Sestak for his part, wont know any better (and will be propping up Toomey to moderate dems).. or
he wont care.

b/t i heard toomey worked over sestak at the healthcare debate. He sure did on the news the other day. I do wonder
when Kortz will be included.

[Number9Dream]

7. So Rasmussen is only credible when supporting Specter...

A couple months ago you thought Rasmussen was credible enough to base the pro-Specter post cited above. Now it's ignore what PADEMJES12 said in June... listen to what I say today. Recorded words can be a bitch. Much like Arlen Specter says ignore the last 40 years, you can trust me to be a liberal Democrat now.

Again with the "I heard" statements? That's becoming a bad habit. The credibility of "I heard" statements is zero to anyone with half a brain. No new "staggering around drunk together" lies???

Aside from Specter's words, give me a reason why life-long Democrats should trust Specter.

[PADEMJES12]

8. A very bad habit?

Thanks for the constructive criticism Number9D. Lets talk about bad habits and Joe...
If me saying that i've been hearing people whisper that Toomey worked him over in the debate is a
bad habit, then i would hate to know what one would consider one who repetitively skips
voting in Congress at the expense of taxpayers... to campaign for a job promotion.

Sestaks campaign is "staggering around" in uncharted territory... taking donations from
Richard Mellon Scaife, drinking beer and sharing Harvard stories w Pat Toomey, and latching seemingly desperate
onto Rasmussen. (the staggering around excerpt earlier was obviously meant as an analogy, not as an accusation
and nothing more and anyone as Number9 says "with half a brain" would understand that...) Yet, Number9 my blog buddy
possibly has taken a tip from Joe's camp by attempting to mislead everyone, such as Sestaks campaign previously did in an
email w prominent Dem. party leader quotes a few months ago.

b/t...Hope you had fun at the Ned Lamont press conference while everyone else was in Pittsburgh
with Vice President Biden, Gov. Rendell, and Specter.

Here's a warning on polls from todays paper for all of us moving forward. It is good to look at the
disclosure of stats surrounding the poll etc. A good piece for us all:

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/10/20/a-warning-on-polls.aspx

And a write up on lessons learned in the 3rd quarter:

http://www.pa2010.com/2009/10/3-lessons-learned-and-3-questions-raised-in-the-3rd-quarter/

[PADEMJES12]

9. Kortz vs. Sestak factor

I wonder if Sestak will be able to beat/ top Bill Kortz in polling, since in Susquehanna Sestak is
losing by 2% to the neither option.