PA US House Races - Update on Candidates

[JPZenger]

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/PA.htm

The above is a good site with many links. You need to scroll down to get the US House races. I didn't include the unopposed seats.

3rd District - won by 51.2% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Leans Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic,
Kathy Dahlkemper (D), businessman Paul L. Huber (R), insurance agent Steven M. Fisher (R), attorney Elaine Surma (R), ex-Co. Solicitor John Onorato (R)?,

4th District, 55.9% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic, DCCC Frontline member, Roll Call's Outlook: Likely Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic,
Jason Altmire (D), former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (R)?, attorney Keith Rothfus (R),

6th District, 52.1% in '08, open seat
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Chris Cillizza: one of the most likely seats to switch parties, CQ's Scorecard: Tossup, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Hotline's Competitive House Race, Roll Call's Outlook: Tossup, Rothenberg Political Report: Pure Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-Up,
ex-newspaper editor Doug Pike (D), businessman Richie Phillips (D)?, Dr. Manan Trivedi (D), ex-congressional aide Guy Ciarrocchi (R)?, businessman Howard Cohen (R)?, Recorder of Deeds Ryan A. Costello (R), party activist Alan Novak (R)?, St. Rep. Curt Schroder (R), businessman Steven Welch (R)

7th District, 59.6% in '08, open seat (Sestak (D))
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Tossup, Cook Political Report: Toss Up, Roll Call's Outlook: Safe Democratic, Rothenberg Political Report: Pure Toss-Up, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-Up,
attorney Gail Conner (D), St. Rep. Bryan R. Lentz (D), consultant E. Teresa Touey (D), St. Sen. Gregory S. Vitali? (D), ex-U.S. Att. Patrick L. Meehan (R)?

8th District, 56.8% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Cook Political Report: Safe Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Safe Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democrat, NRCC Target,
Incumbent Patrick J. Murphy (D), ex-ass't. prosecutor Dean Malik (R), consultant Jeffery Schott (R), Jay Russell (C)

10th District, 56.3% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: = Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic, DCCC Frontline member, Roll Call's Outlook: Tossup, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat, NRCC Target,
Incumbent Chris Carney (D), Co. Comm'r. Malcolm L. Derk, III (R)?, Iraqi War vet Christopher Bain (R), School Board member Daniel Naylor (R), chiropractor David J. Madeira (R), '08 candidate/ businessman Dan Meuser (R)?,

11th District, 51.6% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Leans Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic, NRCC Target,
Incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D), Lackawanna Co. Comm'r. Corey O'Brien (D), Mayor Lou Barletta (R), attorney/ hedge fund manager Christopher "Chris" Paige (R)

12th District, 57.9% in '08 - Murtha might retire
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard: Democrat Favored, Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Leans Democratic, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic,
Incumbent "Jack" Murtha (D), former naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri (D), activist Dave Battaglia (R)?, businessman Tim Burns (D), '08 nominee / army vet. William T. "Bill" Russell (R)

13th District, 62.8% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Safe Democratic,
incumbent Allyson Y. Schwartz (D) incumbent, attorney Daniel McCaffery (D)?, Dentist Damian Dachowski (R), attorney Josh Quinter (R)

15th District, 58.6% in '08 (was against an unknown candidate)
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Republican, CQ's Scorecard: Leans Republican, Cook Political Report: Lean Republican, Cook Political Report: Safe Republican, Roll Call's Outlook: Likely Republican, Rothenberg Political Report: Republican Favored, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Republican,
Bethlehem Mayor John B. Callahan (D), incumbent Charlie Dent (R), chemical engineer Jake Towne (L),

17th District, 63.7% in '08
D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: Democratic, CQ's Scorecard: Safe Democratic, Roll Call's Outlook: Safe Democratic,
incumbent T. Timothy Holden (D), businessman Frank Ryan (R)?, State Sen. Argyl ? (R)

[femmocrat]

1. Not so sure about the 12th staying in the blue column.

Murtha is facing ethics charges (when isn't he?). That is my home district (before the last redistricting), and has been going more and more conservative over the years. Unemployment is always very high here and it could be ready for an anti-incumbency contest.

[JPZenger]

2. pa 6

In PA 6, Howard Cohen was listed as a possible Rep. candidate. He officially announced he's running. He sounds very moderate.

[Number9Dream]

3. Pessimistic about the 15th

Except for a few terms for Paul McHale, the Lehigh Valley has been represented by repukes Ritter, Toomey, and Dent since 1979. The local media (Allentown Morning Call, WFMZ, WAEB) is very pro-repuke, while pretending not to be. I think Callahan has an outside shot at beating Dent if he aggressively goes after Dent's party-of-NO / pro-Bush voting record. Dent has already began attacking Callahan.

JPZ - What are your thoughts about the 15th?

[JPZenger]

4. Wide Open Race

PA 15 is a wide open race. Dent is moderately popular as a moderate Republican. He is being challenged by a Ron Paul Disciple as an independent libertarian candidate, and by a teabagging GOP primary opponent.

Dent had the benefit of truly flawed Dem opponents in the past. However, Dent only won by a few points in 2006 against an unknown guy who got the Dem nomination through a write-in and who had no money. (That same guy just got defeated for a County Council re-election.)

Mayor Callahan has done a great job in Bethlehem, which is a model for revitalization. Both Callahan and Dent will attract huge sums of money.

The key will be Dem turnout. We need to get the Dem base excited, like they were in Nov. 2008. Otherwise, traditionally higher GOP turnout in an off-year election and the highly motivated teabagging voters will make it easier for Dent. Callahan will needs lots of committed volunteers.

[JPZenger]

5. Argyl will soon announce he is running against Holden

In PA 17 (Schuylkill and Berks Counties), State Senator Argyl will soon officially announce he is running against Dem incumbent Tim Holden. That makes the race competitive, and will attract large sums of money.

[JPZenger]

9. Another Holden Opponent Says Withdraw from UN

The first announced GOP opponent against Holden is a real rightwingnut.

http://readingeagle.com/article.aspx?id=185186

[JPZenger]

6. PA-6 Gerlach Likely to Run for Re-election, Abandons Gov. Race

Gerlach is the incumbent US House member from PA-6. This is one of the most competitive districts in the US, and has gone back and forth Dem vs. republican for decades. Gerlach has won all his races by small majorities. Gerlach has changed his mind and will apparently announce he is running for re-election in his current district.

Doug Pike, a man with a background in newspapers who is providing much of his own funding, is the leading Dem. candidate.

[JPZenger]

7. Its official - Gerlach running for re-election in pa-6

[JPZenger]

10. PA6 - At least 3 Republican Candidates in Primary

Schroeder and Welch are saying they are staying in the race for Repub. nomination for PA 6, even though Gerlach is running for re-election.

www.politicspa.com

[JPZenger]

8. PA 8 - Murphy vs. Fitzpatrick Rematch

In PA-08 (Bucks Co.), Patrick Murphy is facing a rematch against the former GOP Congressman he defeated - Fitzpatrick.

[JPZenger]

11. pa 4 - Dem incumbent may have liberal challenger

http://www.politicspa.com/politicspa-reports-altmire-to-face-primary-challenger/4684/

Liberal dems who are angry at Altimire for voting against health care reform are discussing a primary challenge. This is likely to involve a woman who ran against Altimire in a previous primary.

[JPZenger]

12. Cook Political Report projections Jan 2010

http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive.php

The above link has the latest projections from the Cook Political Report. They project that Districts 6, 7 and 15 will be the most competitive in PA. They are still showing all seats held by Dems in PA who are running for re-election as "likely Democratic."

[JPZenger]

13. Here's another list with links to candidate websites

The following list is not 100% up to date, but has some info. on candidates and links to their websites.

http://paballot.com/2010-us-house-races/