http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/14/866125/-PA-Sen:-Sestak-takes-%28statistically-insignificant%29-leadMarkos M. of Dailykos has provided new analysis of the Sestak-Specter race, including highlighting the recent polls showing Sestak does better against Toomey then Specter. This link also includes a new poll.
Markos also criticizes registered lobbyist/PA. Dem. Chairman T.J. Rooney for saying that it will be a disaster in Nov. if Sestak wins. Markos says he "doesn't know what the hell he's talking about."
All of the evidence is that Republicans will not vote for Specter in November, because they hate him as a turncoat. Specter has huge negatives among many voters. In comparison, the more people know about Sestak, the more they like him. Therefore, Specter's supposed edge over Sestak in the Nov. election doesn't exist.