Neck and Neck: Onorato down by 1, Sestak Gaining Ground

[blue neen]

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Corbett_has_slight_lead_over_Onorato_in_governor_rsquo_s_race_09-19-2010.html?searchterm=onorato


"The poll shows that if the election were to be held now, Corbett would receive 38 percent of the votes and Onorato would get 37 percent. The poll shows 25 percent of those surveyed as undecided.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Cawley is favored over Conklin, 29 percent to 25 percent, with nearly half of the participants – 46 percent – undecided.

The race for U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat is also close – Toomey received 40 percent of the respondent’s votes to 36 percent for Sestak and 24 percent undecided."

[old mark]

1. It's great to lead in polls, but better to win the election. I think we are going to do that!! nt

[blue neen]

2. There are a lot of undecideds. Both sides are running ads like crazy.

I saw a new Sestak ad last night...highlighting Joe's service to the country while Toomey was serving Wall Street.

I wish the media would actually do some investigative journalism and get to the bottom of Toomey's year in Hong Kong.

Onorato also has been running an effective ad, talking about reducing the size of the legislature.

:dem:

[Divernan]

3. But Post Gazette/Quinnipiac reports Corbett leading 54-39.

There's a significant difference between the Times Leader report and the Post-Gazette report. Hope the Times Leader is more accurate.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Attorney Gen. Tom Corbett is holding a large lead over Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato in the race to become the state's next governor, according to a poll released Tuesday morning. The Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters shows Mr. Corbett, a Republican, with a 54-39 percent edge over his Democratic opponent. The survey shows the lead is fueled by Mr. Corbett's 56-29 percent edge among independent voters.

"An Onorato victory probably would require a sea of change among independent voters who are now strongly in Corbett's camp and often are the group that decides elections," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Seven percent of voters are undecided, the poll says, while 16 percent of Mr. Corbett's backers and 22 percent of Mr. Onorato's supporters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

Mr. Corbett leads Mr. Onorato 88-9 percent among Republicans and trails 84-10 percent among Democrats. Mr. Corbett is winning with men 65-29 percent and Mr. Onorato leads among women 52-39 percent. From Wednesday through Sunday, Quinnipiac University surveyed 684 Pennsylvania likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.


Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10264/1089196-100.stm#ixzz10AW2v1iT

[blue neen]

4. Yeah, it is interesting.

Both polls say that they surveyed likely voters, although the Times Leader poll also said that the respondents were registered voters and had voted in 2008.

[wisteria]

5. Since when did PA get so many Independant voters?

I figure this poll added in the old idea that PA alternates power among parties every eight years. And, since this poll was conducted by a western PA paper, I questions perhaps an over sampling from one part of the state. Corbett is such a loser and thinks he has it in the bag with his one idea campaign not to raise taxes. I really hope he doesn't win.

[Dawson Leery]

8. Independent voters amount to 5.9% of all voters in the state.

That has to be one of the smallest pools of independent voters in the nation.

[Yeggo]

6. More good news...

Looks like Chris Carney is running ahead of the ultra-baggage-laden Tom Marino in PA-10, too.

http://bit.ly/a3MRd7

[JPZenger]

7. Every vote counts

Let's get moving out there folks! Every vote counts. We also need to emphasize the State House races, or the Repubs will have control over all of the re-setting of legislative districts.