Bush Numbers in South Dakota

[sarahlee]

Written by Chad on Thursday August 18, 2005
http://www.cleancutkid.com/2005/08/18/bush-numbers-in-south-dakota/

SurveyUSA has released the results of a tracking poll taken in the last week that measures President Bush’s “approval” and “disapproval” ratings. The results are broken down by state, so some South Dakota specific numbers are available.

It is no surprise, given the results of most of the major media polls from the past few weeks, that Bush is as unpopular has he has ever been.

But the South Dakota numbers are interesting since the President has always been popular here.

Overall in SD: 45% approve of the President, 52% dissaprove.

This is a big swing since the last SurveyUSA tracking poll was done on July 11, when the President held a 50% approval and 45% dissaproval rating from South Dakotans. That’s a reversal and a 12-point swing in the approval-disapproval gap in a month’s time. Even taking into consideration the margin for error, one has to come to the conclusion that South Dakotans have had a change in opinion of the President’s job performance.

When broken down by party affiliation, this latest poll is even more interesting:

Republicans: 77% approve, 21% disapprove.
Democrats: 14% approve, 81% disapprove.
Independents: 32% approve, 64% disapprove.

The numbers from independent voters are startling for Bush when you look at the numbers he received last month: 41% approve, 50% disapprove. Bush’s approve-disapprove gap amongst South Dakota independents grew to his disadvantage by 25 points in a very short time period.

The question becomes, how do Democrats in South Dakota capitalize on this? It would seem independents are turning on the President at an alarming rate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to come over to the Democratic side in droves unless we give them a reason to do so.

The voting patterns of independent voters in South Dakota should be of high importance to both parties in South Dakota, but in particular Democrats. The Secretary of State recently released updated voter registration numbers, and independents now make up 14.4% of the South Dakota electorate. Only 10 years ago, that percentage was under 10% of the electorate. The percentage gap between Republicans and Democrats has hovered around 9-10% for the better part of the past 10 years. Voters registering as independent have been slowly eating into the numbers of both Republicans and Democrats over that time period, though Republicans have been able to maintain their 10% advantage.

So with independents seeming to be increasingly unhappy with the President, how do Democrats in South Dakota get these voters to buy into a Democratic message? It would seem to me there is an opportunity here.