Can Ford win?

[Clark2008]

Mods, this is from a campaign email. I don't have a link. I'll edit if necessary:

Can Ford win? Do the math

By Jared Allen,
May 30, 2006


Harold Ford Jr.’s hopes of becoming Tennessee’s next U.S. senator rest on a delicate combination of political timing and simple arithmetic.

Since the Republican revolution of 1994 swept the state, Democrats seeking statewide office in Tennessee have faced uphill battles.

>From native Tennessean Al Gore – who lost his last statewide race and therefore the presidency in 2000 – to Tennessee implant Gov. Phil Bredesen – who won his in 2002 – Democrats wooing a statewide vote have had to balance winning by large margins in traditionally liberal urban centers with picking off just enough votes in the more expansive rural regions of the state. Loosely translated, the strategy comes down to don’t lose East Tennessee by too much.

“The conventional wisdom has always been that for Democrats to win statewide, they have to come out of East Tennessee within 50,000 votes,” Tennessee Democratic Party spokesman Mark Brown said.

Statewide, Democrats have traditionally enjoyed healthy margins of victory in urban centers in Middle and West Tennessee, particularly in Davidson and Shelby counties.

“If you’re more than 50,000 votes down after East Tennessee, then you’re in big trouble,” Brown said.

It was mastering exactly that strategy that propelled Bredesen to the Governor’s Mansion in 2002. Bredesen, a former Nashville mayor running against then- U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary, lost East Tennessee, but only by 40,000 votes. Bredesen beat Hilleary by 34,000 votes in Davidson County and by 33,000 votes in Shelby County. In Knox County, Bredesen squeaked out 43 more votes than Hilleary – a statistical tie.

Focus on Middle & East Tennessee

Ford’s campaign has not come out and said they are following the same formula, but a review of Ford’s campaign itinerary suggests he is intent on laying a strong groundwork in Middle and East Tennessee while his eventual opponent is buried in the bloody Republican primary trenches.

Two weekends before Memorial Day, Ford barnstormed through East Tennessee, speaking at a high school graduation in Elizabethton, attending Truman Day in Knoxville, and hitting up Greenville and Morristown as well.

What Ford’s people and many Democrats are saying is that Ford is in a position to take advantage of a national anti-Republican mood on his way to winning statewide.

“We win statewide by being a candidate that articulates a message for change, for renewal and for engagement on big issues,” said Ford campaign spokesman Michael Powell. “The country and Tennessee are hungering for leadership that will lay out an agenda that comports with their lives.”

Powell said Ford can successfully deliver that message. But Republicans disagree.

“All the internal and the external polling that we’ve seen show his unfavorables are either even with his favorables or pretty close,” said state Republican Party Chairman Bob Davis. “And that’s even after he’s put himself on TV and courted himself around the state.”

Ford’s problem, Davis said, is not his persona but his record.

“He very charismatic on the stump, but you can’t run from your record. And if we focus on the man’s votes, we’ll be fine,” Davis said.

Voting record a key vulnerability

Ford’s voting record is one of his key vulnerabilities, and one that whoever wins the Republican primary – Ed Bryant, Bob Corker or Hilleary – will hammer him on, said Nathan Gonzales, an analyst with the Washington, D.C.-based Rothenberg Political Report.

“Being a Democrat and certain votes that he’s taken, I think you will most certainly see as part of an attack strategy,” Gonzales said.

Republicans will also try to paint Ford as too connected with “Hollywood Democrats” and Washington D.C., and too out of touch with Tennesseans.

National Republicans reference Gore losing Tennessee in the 2000 presidential race. The state’s electoral votes cost Gore the presidency.

“That was part of the problem Al Gore ran into in 2000,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Dan Ronayne. “I think that despite the fact that Gore was the home-state guy, he really ran into some problems because he was more D.C. than he was Tennessee.”

Powell sees it much differently.

“I think voters will quickly see that shares their values and that he is the kind of leader that can go to Washington and begin to solve some of the big problems that are impacting their lives on a daily basis.”

I know Ford isn't the most popular Democrat on this board, but a vote for Ford is a vote to put Democrats in chairmanship positions. And, quite honestly, it takes a perceived moderate to win back some seats in the "red" states.

I know Ford is DLC and I HATE the DLC, but I am also a realistic Tennessean. Ford is becoming less corporate in his approach and more "Mom and Pop." I've seen him evolve on the campaign trail and I like the evolution.

[Tippy]

1. Ford is targeting middle TN

He was stumping here yesterday, and was doing a bang up job. He spoke last night at Tn Tech...made quite and impression on a large group young men. He sure can fire up folks.

"Ford’s voting record is one of his key vulnerabilities, and one that whoever wins the Republican primary – Ed Bryant, Bob Corker or Hilleary – will hammer him on, said Nathan Gonzales, an analyst with the Washington, D.C.-based Rothenberg Political Report"

This may backfire on the other candidates, after all his votes did support republican issues...