Rita forecast shows probable TX landfall by Friday

[PDittie]

[malaise]

1. Should be chaos in the Gulf

with all the ships and personnel off NOLA. More oil woes coming.
Has Dubya asked his brother to hand over control of the state? Will he ask Perry?

I wonder if Dubya is wondering about his bad karma about now. Has any other president in history faced so many hurricanes. When will states start demanding that their national guard return home?
Bush is fugged!!

[crispini]

2. Well at least it's not NOLA again.

We can handle it better. Although I feel sorry for all the evacuee in Houston, if that's where it goes.

[ClintonTyree]

6. Hey, it's Monday morning........

and if Katrina and Ophelia have taught us anything, it's that Hurricanes will do whatever they damned well please. I would suggest NO ONE let their guard down.

[HereSince1628]

3. Are forecasts for steering currents better than other forecasts?

Friday seems like a long way away for much accuracy.

[Shipwack]

5. While there's a grain of salt involved that far out...

... I think it won't be too far off.

It looks like it;s in the center of a circular area, so all points are equidistant. I'd bet on landfall -somewhere- Friday, plus or minus a day...

It appears at first glance that Texas and Mexico make up at least half of the coastline, so 'Texas' is not a bad answer, either.

Of course, as soon as I put money down, the forces of the universe would instantly make the storm system do something totally different....

[Gman]

4. I'll be working in Corpus and the Valley this week

and plan to be back here in SA Thursday evening. I may have to leave sooner because of traffic on I37 back to SA if Rita gets to a Cat 3 like they say it might. After Katrina people will probably take no chances.

[Richardo]

7. Belay that request for a little rain, God

I'll be more careful about my wishes next time. :scared:

[GOPisEvil]

8. If it's all the same...I'm traveling out on Friday and back on Sunday.

Can I please not have this damn hurricane screw that up?

Oh, and um, let's not have any of that death and destruction either. Thanks. :)

[sonias]

9. Me too, though I'm not going as far as you are

If we get a little rain that's good but please, please no Cat 5 storm disaster. It really would not be fair to these evacuees to have to go through another storm hit like that. And frankly I'm not too sure Texas would handle it better than Louisiana did.

Let's keep repeating the administration mantra "There's no global warming, there's no global warming, there's no global warming".

Be prepared everyone. Good luck to us all!

Sonia

[crispini]

10. Houston's a lot higher.

At least the cities wouldn't drown.

[GOPisEvil]

11. As long as Galveston's sea wall holds, that's true.

:)

[Bridget Burke]

35. Yes, Houston floods easily....

But the water goes down naturally--no pumping needed.

[fudge stripe cookays]

38. Those poor people in The Heights.

No curbs or gutters there. Last year was my first visit. Such a cute neighborhood. This is gonna hurt.

FSC

[WolverineDG]

25. ditto here for me

see ya in dc!

dg

[Lisa0825]

12. I'm very nervous.

I live in Texas City. We stayed through Alicia. I was still a kid then. We didn't get much flooding in our part of Texas City then, but the flood pumps don't seem to work as well as back then. After they were installed, my street didn't flood for a good 10 years or so. But the past few years, everytime we get a heavy line of storms, the street fills up.... not to the houses, but enough to scare us.

I am a kitty foster mom, and I just picked up my newest additions. The one I am worried about is a pregnant mom about to pop. She's in hiding behind my washer right now, and I haven't been able to coax her out. I hope I'll be able to get her out if I have to evacuate!

:scared:

[WestHoustonDem]

13. I hope you don't have to evacuate, You and your kitties are welcome here!

:pals: :hug: :grouphug:

[Lisa0825]

14. Yeah, I was counting on asking you!LOL

Kathy is still too close to this area for comfort, and she's allergic to cats.

Thanks!:-) :hug: :pals:

[WestHoustonDem]

15. If mom kitty pops

we'll have kitties in double digits. I guess that will make us both crazy cat ladies! LOL

[Lisa0825]

16. LOL!

I emailed Wydell to ask about the shelter's plans and what to do about preg-o. No word yet.

[merci_me]

17. IMPORTANT must read for Houston/Galveston

I've been searching for several hours for this series that was in the Houston Chronicle last February.

Please read it! It's a long download but worth the time.

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html

Lisa, I see you're hooked up with Lyn. I'm going to see if Elaine and Tony have made plans. Last time they stayed here and I'm assuming they may be planning to again. If not, we'll have a guest room available and hopefully it will be a dry one.

Mary

[Lisa0825]

18. I hope this thing misses us....

I feel awful for all the evacuees here, having to deal with this dang deja vu.

[Catherine Vincent]

19. So if this storm heads to Galveston/Houston, would they issue a

mandatory evacuation for Houstonians? Where should everyone go? Do they expect all five million of us to pack up and leave within two days before the storm would hit? There's no way that could happen.

[merci_me]

20. Don't know, but if they did

I'd completely trust it was necessary and trust Mayor Bill White, whatever he said we need to do. The man has been nothing short of a marvel in showing his strength in emergency management, recognizing any faults of his own, forthright in admitting them, then moving forward on a better path and surrounding himself with people who do the same.

Mary

[Catherine Vincent]

21. What I worry about is the time limit to get everyone out.

We're looking at a nightmare.:-(

[CitySky]

22. probably not.

I think that, because we are a bit inland, even worst-case scenarios don't imagine all of Houston underwater. Eastern Harris county, perhaps, but not all 5 million of us (and our new guests). Of course, I'm taking orders. If they say, "Houston South of I-10, evacuate," I'll pack my rommates and as much snacks and gear as we can cram into my little car and hit the road, no question.

It seems more likely that most of us will do fine to stay here. It's always a good idea to be prepared for water & electricity disruptions. Two easy things to do that don't cost a dime:

* If there's any room in your freezer, fill some containers with water and stick them in there. If the electricity goes out, that ice will come in handy.\

* If it looks like it's going to be a direct hit, in the hours before the storm comes, fill up your bathtub. That's clean water... okay, depending on how often you clean your bathtub! :P

Also might be a good idea not to let your car's gas tank get too low this week, just in case. Be safe everybody!

[merci_me]

23. Don't forget the water in your water heater

it's not good for drinking, but it works for other things. Also, you can fill you washing machine, add a little detergent and swish it a bit while the water is still hot, to get it mixed in. Then you can use it for quick cleanup water and if a day or two passes, you can add a little bleach and drop clean up rags in it to soak and wash later. Before you do that, you might want to wash your towels, whites and sheets on Thursday and Friday wash any dishes and do a quick clean of bathrooms. Actually, just a general clean up of papers and magazines, (stash them in a closet) can help make you feel less stressed.

Having been stuck in many blizzards up north, it's comforting to face what natures tosses at us with things in order, cause if it lasts more than a couple of days you'll be glad you started out with things in place.

Of course, have your charcoal and propane grills supplied, candles and matches all set out and heavy duty extension cords can come in handy. Both up north and here, we've had a neighborhood power grid that caused loss of electricity on one side of the street for a few days, but it came back on the other side much sooner. Here and there, people strung extension cords across the streets. Oh, and start eating those steak in your freezer tonight. You can get more later. And along with putting water in your freezer, go to the day-old bread store and stock up. It molds into spaces and helps keep the freezer cold.

[WolverineDG]

26. and if you don't clean your tub too much

you can use the water to flush the toilet. :)

dg

[tammywammy]

24. My extended family lives in the Beaumont/Pt Arthur area

I talked with my Aunt today. She said that she was packing. And Wednesday is when they're going to make their decision. Really, if it hasn't shifted way west by then, they'll get out, either just up to Jasper, to up to DFW for a nice visit with the family up here.

[txindy]

28. Not with Houston traffic, it couldn't, no

I don't know what would happen, then. Houston, on a good day, is gridlocked. I can't even begin to imagine an evacuation.

[Lisa0825]

29. Was Houston issues evacuation orders for past hurricanes?

I live closer to the coast, so we always got the orders, though I don't recall a mandatory order in my time here. I wouldn't imagine most parts of Houston would be in as much danger as the coastal areas.

[Lisa0825]

30. This morning's updated models are shifted a bit to the west...

which is better news than a direct hit, at least for my area. Hopefully that shift will continue.

[BrightKnight]

27. NOAA: "quite warm in the gluf... not just at the surface"

"...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/192058.shtml

[PDittie]

31. From the blog at

the Chronicle:

What will happen if Rita hits ... ?

Galveston Island: Think Hurricane Alicia, which came ashore Galveston as a category-3 storm in 1983, with gusts up to 126 mph. The storm killed 21 people, destroyed 2,300 homes. The Red Cross sheltered 63,000 people. All told, in an era when there was considerably less coastal development, Alicia caused $2 billion in damage. Enough trees were blown down to fill a football field 1,200 feet high. The storm pushed the beach on Galveston's West End back by 150 feet in some places. Rita, if coming ashore in Galveston, could have winds near 100 mph over downtown Houston, enough to cause roofing and window damage to even well constructed homes. That's enough about Alicia, I think. It wouldn't be any fun.

A best-case scenario for those of us in town is still not worth sitting through, IMHO.

Make plans to move out of the way, please.

[merci_me]

32. We're still thinking...

we're in West Houston, but I'm really concerned about the storm surge flying up the Buffalo Bayou. I wouldn't think it would flood more than a two feet, but I don't know if I can deal with that and no electricity.

We're kind of think of looking toward Austin.

When are you leaving?

M

[PDittie]

36. Friday morning, about 4 am

Hopefully I can make it to DFW by the time Sue's flight lands (at 6 pm).

[merci_me]

37. We have a hotel room 1/4 mile from the house

The Hilton had a conference cancel and a block of rooms became available, so we reserved there, starting at 3pm tomorrow. Jim drove around to several of the area's bigger hotels about midnight last night, figuring they would be the ones more likely to have conferences or conventions booked. He left a business card with the night clerks and then went back about 10am to be sure the day clerks got his card. While he was gone, the Hilton phoned and said they had rooms. I was just pulling out a credit card to book, when he walked in and said he got a room at the Hilton. Don't know how many they have, but I told a few neighbors with the little kids and a couple of them went right over to book.

Anyway, that way, we can leisurely cart over papers, pictures, snacks and a few days of clothes Thursday and then when we're ready to leave here Friday, it's a 5 minute trip.

I was worried about the Buffalo Bayou swirling a foot or two of water into my house in the middle of the night, electricity out, total dark and a tree falls through a window or the roof. So we'll wait it out there.

It's nestled among office buildings, the roof will be several floors above us, any water will be below us and at landfall, if need be there's alway the bathroom, halls or ballrooms with no windows.

BTW, you should smell lunches around here. I think the whole street is grilling steaks, ribs, whatever, for LUNCH even. Just incase the electricity goes out, you may as well eat the best stuff now. LOL

Mary

[PDittie]

39. That's a good plan

Sounds like y'all will stay safe.

I'll be checking in on this board Saturday morning to find out about everyone.

[BrightKnight]

33. The Galveston seawall is only 17 feet.

Storm surge from a strong category 4 hurricane could exceed that.

[Stil]

34. Check this out

This is a link to pdf file for harris counties hurricane zones.
http://www.hcoem.org/Hurricane%20Evacuation%20Map.pdf