Zogby-WSJ poll on TX Governor race shows

[PDittie]

Perry 36.3

Bell 20.7

Strayhorn 19

Friedman 16.6

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft

"... While Zogby's latest (March) poll shows Perry in the lead in a four-way matchup, his margin over Democratic challenger and former US Rep. Chris Bell is shrinking. Author and musician Kinky Friedman appears to be the strongest independent candidate, while one-time Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn, the state's comptroller running as an independent, saw declining support in the latest poll."

That's two polls that show Chris Bell leading the field of challengers to the incumbent (the Dallas Morning News poll, taken before the primary on March 7, showed Perry 36, Bell 19, CKS 16, and Kinky 10).

http://www.offthekuff.com/mt/archives/007082.html

This BS I keep reading in the MSM, and from losers like John Sharp and George Shipley and others, is not borne out by the facts.

Chris Bell can, amd most importantly will win this election.

[Lithos]

1. Okay

So, what gives... Perry is going down, Strayhorn is going down, Kinky is flat lined, but Bell is not increasing much?

[PDittie]

2. moving into 'undecided' eom

[muse]

4. how it is explained on chrisbell.com

if you can wade through the similes:


The first post-primary Zogby-WSJ poll has a lot of good news for Team Bell, so let's get right to it. Confirming what we saw in the Dallas Morning News poll in February, Bell has clearly climbed past a stagnant Strayhorn campaign and claimed second place for his own. The numbers are below, with the change since the January poll in parentheses:

Perry: 36.3% (-2)
Bell: 20.7% (+2.8)
Strayhorn: 19% (-1.5)
Kinky: 16.7% (+2.3)

Let's break this down like a circus tent:

First, Chris has closed the gap with Rick Perry by 5 points since January as Perry slides into the mid-30s. I'm sticking with my line on his Perry. His poll numbers are like a weather forecast for a Dallas winter. In a plurality, Rick Perry's 36.3% stands out there in the middle of the road like future roadkill.

Second, Chris shows a gain relative to Foghorn Strayhorn, with a 4.3% swing away from her and towards Chris as he begins to consolidate Democrats. To bleed 1.5% with high name ID, millions of dollars spent in statewide advertising, and huge press coverage during her petition drive doesn't tell a happy story. To do so when the other major Republican in the race was also bleeding support doesn't indicate that she has effectively positioned herself as the most credible alternative. A lot of hot air is keeping her ballon inflated, but just barely. Say it with me, everyone: She is an Austin insider mirage. And this poll shows the haze might be starting to lift.

Third, Chris is the only candidate with a credible win scenario who shows momentum in this poll. All we have to do is to get one more vote than Rick Perry, and with his clear primary win, this poll shows that he has started climbing that mountain.

[Lithos]

5. I like this analogy

I'm hoping the infighting between Perry and Strayhorn will turn off Pukes at the polls. That may be born out by PDittie's comment above about people moving into the undecided column. As such I think there are enough Dems out there to easily gain the plurality provided we emphasize GOTV and minimize any spoiling by Kinky (or rather, maximize his spoiling against Pukes and minimize it against Dems).

On a different note, anyone know of a good simple slogan/retort to use against the Kinky people? Only thing I can think of is "Kinky - Why bother?" which while true is admittedly lame.


L-

[David Van Os]

3. Rick Perry is toast

and Chris Bell is going to be the Governor of Texas.

[David Van Os]

6. Rejoinder to my Campaign Coordinator

Pdiddie my good man: Respectfully, I suggest we can do better than this. Heck, I already know that our man Chris is on track to be the next Governor of Texas. But why cultivate in Texas Democrats a Kerry strategy, i.e., let's eke out a narrow win with one more state than Al Gore won? Come on, folks, let's train ourselves to think in terms of WINNING BIG. Let's wipe out all three of those Republicans - Rick, Carole, and Richard "Kinky". Let's be sure that we leave them no more than about 45% to divide three ways. I think such is a much more doable scenario than the silly pundits think with their silly numbers. Let's WIN these elections this year. Let's not be thinking about backing into them. That is the kind of thinking that before you know it will have us talking about being cautious and playing it safe and all that kind of foolishness, and before you know it we'll be playing to avoid losing rather than playing to win, and then it'll be gone. Some of the stuff that's been posted in this thread sounds like spectators at a horse track, just placing bets. No more placing bets and no more spectating, please! Get on the damn track and don't put yourself in a bystander's mentality in relation to the moral imperative that lies upon us all to get rid of the gangsters that are hellbent to destroy Constitutional government. Don't be a weathervane, be the wind.

David

[muse]

7. exactly

You are right. Sometimes, often, the folks on the chris bell website act like that - "if we can only just get one more vote than Perry, we'll win! Maybe, just maybe, we can do that."

I'd like to see some overwhelming confidence from them!

[PDittie]

10. YesSIR!

I hear and obey, Master Obi-Wan.

:thumbsup: :dem: :kick: :yourock:

[David Van Os]

11. May the force

be with you, Master Pdiddie.

[muse]

8. burntorange's take on this

from burntorangereport.com:

Personally, I think that Kinky and Strayhorn might get a bump if and when they actually get on the ballot. I have to agree with Team Bell that Perry's numbers are as good as they will get. For a sitting governor that everyone knows, I just can't see them getting much better. Here's how I see things going:

1)Perry's numbers stay around where they are (within the margin of error).

2)Strayhorn and Kinky siphon of votes from Perry If the when they get on the ballot, as I firmly believe they will.

3)All Team Bell has to do is solidify the base (no easy task, like herding cats) and us Dems can walk away with this race.

In sum, if the stars align in November, we can paint the governor's mansion blue. It appears that those stars are starting to align, let's just hope the trend continues


My comment - does anyone know if Bell has an organized volunteer effort up and running? If Team Bell is going to solidify the base, it's going to take an all out volunteer effort to do that and I haven't heard a word about volunteering.

[Czolgosz]

9. The Stop Kinky! blog and Lone Star Project have some interesting analysis

of the Gov race: <http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=24562544&postID=114349775788536782>, <http://www.lonestarproject.net/archive/2006voteproject.html>. There is also some good analysis in The Abilene Reporter News <http://www.reporternews.com/abil/op_columns/article/0,1874,ABIL_7981_4571500,00.html>, The Fort Worth Star-Telegram <http://www.dfw.com/mld/startelegram/news/columnists/bob_ray_sanders/14212730.htm>, and Austin's KTBC news http://www.chrisbell.com/files/CBTV/CBTV_032006.html].