Perry can call Special Election to fill Bugboy's Seat

[MagickMuffin]

Depending on when DeLay steps down, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) could call a special election to fill the vacancy. It would be up to local GOP officials to replace DeLay formally on the ballot in November, but party officials say that the winner of a special election -- assuming it is a Republican -- would almost certainly be placed on the fall GOP ballot.

Republicans said that, with DeLay gone, they have a much better chance of holding the seat. Although redistricting took some Republicans out of the district, Bush won 64 percent of the vote there in 2004. According to GOP sources, one almost-certain candidate is Sugar Land Mayor David G. Wallace. Tom Campbell, who was second to DeLay in the primary with 30 percent of the vote, said last night he would run in any special election.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/03/AR2006040301787_pf.html

[sonias]

1. I'd like to see him qualify under all three options

Snip from story above:

DeLay, who will turn 59 on Saturday, did not say precisely when he would step down, but under Texas law he must either die, be convicted of a felony, or move out of his district to be removed from the November ballot. DeLay told Time magazine that he is likely to change his official residence from Sugar Land, Tex., to Alexandria by the end of May. He said he informed President Bush of his decision yesterday afternoon.

To be removed from the ballot in Texas, DeLay must either
1) die
2) be convicted of a felony
3) or move out of his district

I think we'll be sure to get 2 out of 3. He'll die eventually and then we hit the trifecta!

Sonia

[Czolgosz]

3. I agree that to have DeLay's name removed from the ballot, he must either

(1) withdraw, (2) die, or (3) be declared ineligible on or before the 74th day before election day.

But the question whether the GOP can fill the gap on the ballot created by DeLay's withdrawal is a separate question.

As I read the rules, an executive committee of the party can replace the name of a withdrawing candidate removed from the ballot only if (1) the candidate withdraws because of a catastrophic illness (which is inapplicable), (2) no party held primary election and chose a nominee for the office sought by the withdrawing candidate (which is inapplicable); or (3) the candidate has been elected, appointed, or nominated to fill a vacancy in another elective office (which is inapplicable).

Clearly, DeLay is trying to contend that he is not "withdrawing" from the race, but that he plans to move outside his district and that he expects that he will be declared "ineligible."

I am not sure (1) that DeLay's plan to move has or will result in his being declared "ineligible" under the law or (2) that by announcing that he is "withdrawing" from the race and then subsequently moving out of the state with the express intention of being declared "ineligible," DeLay has successfully removed the express limitations on when a party can replace a withdrawing candidate or (3) that a criminal defendant under felony indictment can unilaterally announce that he's moving out of the state as simply as that.

I think DeLay is taking a deliberately preposterous position that he has the right to flout the laws regarding when a party can, and when it cannot, replace a candidate on a ballot so that when the Democrats propose that perhaps Mr. DeLay should be governed by the laws that apply to everyone else in the world, the Democrats will seems as if they are the ones trying to change the status quo.

[Gman]

2. Actually, Perry must call a special election when the seat is

officially vacated.

[MagickMuffin]

4. Which will be at the end of May

I don't think this was something they didn't think about. I would also think that they have been reviewing Texas law to make sure that they knew exactly what Bugboy would have to do so the seat wasn't left unclaimed.

[Gman]

5. Which raises the question

should Lampson run in the special election? Whoever wins it will be a cinch to win in November.

[MagickMuffin]

6. Now that's a good question

Does anybody know the answer?

Here's what puzzles me in bold text below

Depending on when DeLay steps down, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) could call a special election to fill the vacancy. It would be up to local GOP officials to replace DeLay formally on the ballot in November, but party officials say that the winner of a special election -- assuming it is a Republican -- would almost certainly be placed on the fall GOP ballot.

What does it mean "assuming it is a republican", I'm confused?:shrug:

[Gman]

7. Nick Lampson's Dilemma

The GOP must at some point pick a replacement for Delay on the November ballot. That replacement does not have to be done right away. I think the deadline for getting the new name on the ballot would be around Labor Day, so GOP has plenty of time to do select a replacement.

But who that replacement will be revolves around how the GOP does in the special election. By law, there must be a special election called within a certain time of Delay's resignation. If a GOP candidate wins the special election, the GOP precinct committeepersons that will pick the replacement will almost definitely pick the GOP winner to go on the November ballot. Remember that the special election will only be to fill Delay's unexpired term which ends in January next year.

Nick Lampson can run and could win the special election to fill Delay's unexpired term. The GOP precinct committeepersons would then pick someone to go on the November ballot. The question is will Lampson run in the special election and if so, can he win? I think Lampson can win. He's a great person, was a great congressman and has no political baggage. On the other hand, what happens if Lampson decides to wait till November and run against the replacement GOP candidate who is also the incumbent? It seems a cinch that whoever wins the special election will also win in November. But then again, special elections are all about get out the vote. Just because a Republican wins the special election doesn't necessarily mean he/she can win in November. The bigger turnout definitely will be in November.

On the other hand, if Lampson does run in the special election and loses, he's tagged with that loss going into November and is asking the voters to reconsider. That's not a good position to be in. Voter turn out aside, why would the voters change their minds four or five months later in November from what they did in the special election?

I think Lampson has no choice. He has to run in the special election. He has the advantage of a big war chest of money and can run a first class campaign just like it was November with 100 degree heat and 90 percent humidity. Everyone else will be starting from scratch. They will have little name recognition and no organization.

One thing is all but certain. Whoever wins the special election will win in November too.

[MagickMuffin]

8. Thanks Gman for the explanation

it really helped to clarify some of the issues I'm not familiar with regarding Texas law.

So, even if Lampson runs in the special election and loses, he can still win in November considering whoever runs against him has some kind of baggage they might have to deal with.

Lampson would certainly have the upper hand since he has been campaigning already, has name recognition, and maybe the voters are ready for anyone other than a Repub to serve their district....