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progressive Republican in Texas so there can be no question that Sharp would be a step in the right direction -- even if it would only be a baby step).
For the past decade, Texas Democratic statewide judicial races have generally been the bellwether contests which have been the closest races (in 2008 it was Sam Houston for Texas Supreme Court, in 2006 it was Bill Moody for Texas Supreme Court, in 2004 it was J.R. Molina for Court of Criminal Appeals, in 2000 it was Bill Vance for Court of Criminal Appeals, and in 2002 Margaret Mirabal for Texas Supreme Court was the second best performing Democrat).
The only exception to this rule has been John Sharp's run for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, where he performed slightly better than Margaret Mirabal; here are the results of the 4 top-performing statewide Democrats from 2002:
Lieutenant Governor 2002 51.77% (2,341,875 votes) - David Dewhurst 46.03% (2,082,281 votes) - John Sharp (2.20% for third parties)
Supreme Court (Place 4) 2002 54.09% (2,331,140 votes) - Steven Wayne Smith 45.90% (1,978,081 votes) - Margaret Mirabal
Senator 2002 55.29% (2,496,243 votes) - John Cornyn 43.32% (1,955,758 votes) - Ron Kirk (1.49% for third parties)
Supreme Court (Place 3) 2002 56.76% (2,442,111 votes) - Wallace B. Jefferson 43.23% (1,860,251 votes) - William E. Moody
Compare that to the most recent 2008 performance of Sam Houston and Bill Moody's 2006 performance in the most recent non-presidential election cycle and J.R. Molina's top-Democrat performance in 2004:
Supreme Court (Place 7) 2008 50.99% (3,926,015 votes) - Dale Wainwright 45.78% (3,525,158 votes) - Sam Houston (3.21% for the Libertarian)
Supreme Court (Place 2) 2006 51.04% (2,135,612 votes) - Don Willett 44.88% (1,877,909 votes) - William E. "Bill" Moody (4.06% for the Libertarian)
Court of Criminal Appeals (Place 6) 2004 57.85% (3,990,315 votes) - Michael E. Keasler 42.14% (2,906,720 votes) - J.R. Molina
By comparing the performance of Mirabel and Moody in 2002, Molina in 2004, Moody in 2006, and Houston in 2008, we can conclude that we generally do better in non-presidential election cycles and we have generally improved our competitiveness by 4% or 5% since 2002 when Sharp last ran, and that trend does not seem to have plateaued. Since Sharp lost by only a little more than 5% in 2002, this may be good news for his chances to breakthrough as the first statewide Democrat elected in more than a decade. Still, the safer bets for a Democratic breakthrough in 2010 are likely to be the candidates for Texas Supreme Court or Court of Criminal Appeals.
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