I know there are other factors, but Gore's talk-up-hunting-while-bashing-nonhunting-guns position hurt him badly in 2000 (don't forget, Gore lost his own home state in that race, for the same reasons), and Kerry had the same problem in 2004.
Here's one perspective from virginiamountainman of DU (he's in rural Va., but the same issues apply). Some excerpts below; see link for the whole post.
Alienated Rural Democrat (DU post)
My family has STRONG Democratic roots, Both my parents where union organizers in some textile mills in southwest Virginia back in the 1970’s I was the “Democratic poster child” in parades back in the 70’s, we was also featured on the nightly news for a period of time, with my mother's work with bringing the union into town, (ultimately unsuccessful) My mother was also a delegate, from the state of Virginia, for Mondale, at the democratic convention. My wife’s family has just as strong roots. Her father has just retired from the coalmines. Her grandfather has served in local government on the democratic ticket for many years, and is also a union man.
My “alienation” began around 1993, when gun control started being a loudly contested issue. My WHOLE FAMILY owns guns, we ALL where raised around them...I remember, me and my (then hardcore democratic uncle) was watching the news about the Brady bill, he got very silent about it, but was still supportive to the Democrats. Then the AW ban came, I remember seeing Feinstein on the news, holding up a semi auto AK up saying that ONLY CRIMINALS would have one. (Between all of us, we had 4 of those rifles) in the next election my uncles and cousins went republican, I did too. I PROUDLY voted for Bill Clinton over Bush SR, he took my vote and betrayed me and my family. We saw the party that we supported faithfully for generations literally turn on us overnight it seemed. Gun Control was all over the news and if you disagreed, you where “outside the mainstream” or a “gun nut.” Some will say we are just bigots, religious zealots, and “simpletons” and we don’t matter. But the truth is I could not careless about gay marriage, I am supportive of abortion rights, I detest what is happened in Iraq, I BELIEVE IN ALL OF THE BILL OF RIGHTS.
Let me point out the damage that gun control has done to the democrats; my family has swung to the right. All my uncles and cousins proudly sport “Bush 2004” and “W” stickers on their cars. My father-in-law does not vote anymore, he cannot vote for the “gun banners” but he can’t bring himself to vote for the republicans neither. ONLY MY WIFE’S GRANDFATHER STILL OPENLY SUPPORTS DEMOCRATS. My wife has swung to the right, she is STILL gloating about the election.
See also this thread, if you're interested:
Dems and the Gun Issue--Now What?FWIW, I'm in NC. My state voted in our pro-gun, NRA-endorsed governor 55%/45%, but rejected the anti-gun presidential ticket 45%/55%. Draw what conclusions you will.