NRCC Polling Proving Credible Callaghan Challenge in WV-02

[Lasher]

Mon Jul 31, 2006

Subscription-only Roll Call article today cites recent NRCC polling for Shelley Moore Capito as evidence that "safe Republican seat" is not being taking for granted. It was unexpected for many insiders in Washington because Capito had won re-election easily the last two cycles. But what most people forget is that this year the Dems have a credible challenger in Mike Callaghan.

Here's the skinny from Roll Call on WV-02:

"The only somewhat surprising district on the list is that of Capito, who currently is not considered among the most vulnerable Members of the House.

Capito won re-election easily since a tough 2000 campaign. But while West Virginia has trended Republican in recent antional elections, the Democratic underpinnings of the state could create problems for the only Republican on the in the Congressional delegation this cycle. President Bush raised money for Capito last week."

"One GOP strategist suggested the breadth of the GOP's polling, including looking at districts like Capito's, is a sign that Republicans aren't taking anything for granted.

'I think it's one of those things where you don't want to get caught off guard,' the strategist said, noting that some private GOP polling in recent weeks had revealed results that were worse than expected."

For West Virginians it is not so surprising, for the most part Washington insiders have never truly understood the real political dynamics of WV and everyone has misunderstood the strength of Mike Callaghan, the Democratic challenger. This poll is only the beginning for a heated campaign for the WV-02. The fact that the NRCC doesn't even want to release the results proves that Capito is not the strong incumbent that everyone in Washington and the punditry previously believed.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/7/31/163417/509

[jelavich]

1. no support

the problem is Manchin and the democrats don't support Callaghan. Not sure why. I intend to find out.

[Lasher]

2. That's odd, I thought Callaghan was a party insider.

I'll check that out too. Please let us know what you find out.

[Lasher]

3. Callaghan is being strongly supported by WV Democratic Party

I just checked with state party headquarters. Their response: "The party is highly supportive of Callaghan and his campaign. His team is a regular member of our coordinated campaign efforts."

It is true that Callaghan and Manchin have had a somewhat troubled past. Two years ago Manchin dumped Callaghan as Democratic Party chairman, replacing him with Nick Casey, his personal lawyer.

http://sync.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=185x279

Just before Junior came to town last month I heard a rumor that Manchin was going to attend Capito's fundraiser. That was just silly. It would have been a sure way for Manchin to have committed political suicide. Likewise, I don't think it's realistic to suppose that Manchin won't support Callaghan as our party's candidate against Capito. If you're wondering about Manchin's level of enthusiasm, however, you are certainly not alone. I say the jury's still out on that one.