New poll shows Democrat leading McCain in W.Va.

[Lasher]

October 10, 2008

A new poll shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain in the presidential race in West Virginia, the first time in the campaign that the Democrat has had the lead in the Mountain State.

The poll, conducted by American Research Group, showed Obama with a 50 to 42 percent lead over McCain. Three percent said they would vote for someone else, and 5 percent were undecided.

According to the poll, 76 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama, and 79 percent of Republicans said they would vote for McCain. Half of the independents polled said they would vote for Obama; 38 percent said they would choose McCain.

The poll was conducted Oct. 4-8, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Within hours of its release, some national political and polling analysts expressed skepticism about the ARG poll. Nate Silver of the Web site fivethirtyeight.com said he was "very, very skeptical" of the poll, and Taegan Goddard of politicalwire.com called the result "especially odd."

http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200810090749

Odd or not, I'll take it. WV is now blue for Obama!

[CrownPrinceBandar]

1. electoralvote.com has Obama up by 8 points in WV as well.......

I know its just prognostication, but it sounds good to me.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Lasher]

2. Electoralvote.com's assessment is based on this ARG poll.

Since there have been few polls in WV, we are left to wonder if this ARG poll is a real indication of Obama's WV surge, or if earlier polls indicating otherwise are correct. Another thing is, the other polls are old, from times when Obama's national advantage was not as significant as today.

But there's just been a poll of the House race in WV-02 and it included a question about the presidential race. And here's what it said:

There is some very bright news, however. Obama is performing fairly well in the district - he trails only 48% to 41% in WV-02. The Second District is slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, so this poll, at least, would seem to indicate that an upset victory is not out of the question for Obama in West Virginia.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/11/191155/09/661/627847

This is another indication that more of our fellow West Virginians might indeed have come to their senses.

[MountainLaurel]

3. Interesting and potentially relevant article, re: the "Bradley effect"

Not long ago, it was considered political gospel: Be wary of polls when an election involves an African American candidate, because many whites will voice support but then vote for the white opponent.

Now, poll-watchers are asking whether that could be skewing the numbers as Democrat Barack Obama, the first African American presidential nominee, moves ahead of Republican John McCain.

Most experts say they do not believe that the phenomenon, known as the "Bradley effect," is at work in this election. But some disagree. And if the effect has disappeared, it is not clear whether that is because polling techniques have improved or because the country has become more tolerant about race.

"The Bradley effect may have been an artifact of the country 20 years ago, but I don't think it's a factor now," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. "Polling has gotten better, but I think, more importantly, the country has changed."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101102136.html

[Lasher]

4. This is a true concern but the Bradley effict was not manifest in the Democratic primary.

But then again, there's not as many bigots in the Democratic party as there are in the GOP.

:shrug:

[Hokie]

5. I really hope Obama wins WV

I want to tune in to Tom Roten and hear him blubber on November 5 (Huntington).

[LG1]

6. Not Sure

I am just not sure if when it comes down to it if WV has it in them to Vote for Obama in enough numbers for him to carry the state.

Would like to see it, but not sure it can happen.