WV-02: Capito (R) has solid lead, Obama trails by single digits

[Lasher]

Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 05:45:07 PM PDT

Incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito appears poised to win reelection in West Virginia's Second District, as she enjoys a solid lead over a viable Democratic challenger, Anne Barth.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/7-8. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Capito (R) 53
Barth (D) 39

That's not exactly beautiful for Barth. She was perceived as a fairly strong candidate - she had the support of the state and national parties, including the heavy hitter Senator Robert Byrd (Barth is Byrd's former state director).

Nevertheless, Capito enjoys a very solid lead - the same 14-point margin by which she won in 2006. If Capito can hold this lead, she may be safe from challenges for the foreseeable future. The best chance at defeating Capito may come if and when she runs for Senate or Governor in the future.

There is some very bright news, however. Obama is performing fairly well in the district - he trails only 48% to 41% in WV-02. The Second District is slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, so this poll, at least, would seem to indicate that an upset victory is not out of the question for Obama in West Virginia.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/11/191155/09/661/627847

[Lost River Ledger]

1. I see Barth taking the seat when Capito runs for Byrd's seat......

I see our beloved Mr. Byrd resigning in a couple years....hopefully he will do it between elections and with a Dem in the Gov's mansion.

[Lasher]

2. Manchin will be reelected, so he'll be in office until 2012.

And that is also the year Senator Byrd's current term ends. At 90, there is a chance Byrd will not be able to continue but I wouldn't bet on that. But if his Senate seat opens up before 2012 I'm guessing Manchin would appoint himself to fill it. Then Manchin would probably prevail over Barth or anybody else in the primary, and over Capito or anyone else in the general election.

Just a guess.

[MadAnne]

3. ITA n/t

[Lasher]

4. But wait, what about 2010?

The GOP loves gerrymanders so much, why don't we give them a taste of their own medicine? They don't even wait for a census anymore but we've got one coming up in 2 years. It shouldn't be too difficult to just design Capito into oblivion.

[MadAnne]

5. Because the people that do it are state legislators and they

are just totally concerned with themselves. For them Washington is a far, far, away place.

[LG1]

6. I agree but don't think it will happen

While I agree that the GOP loves gerrymnders / I won't hold my breath on designing Capito into oblivion. I would love to see a strong competitor against Capito. Think if the party could find someone who would appeal better to the masses I think it would be possible to defeat Capito at the ballot box.