Was (last) Tuesday's big recall turnout too big for Democrats?

[undeterred]

By Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel Aug. 10, 2011

In the end, high turnout was as much a curse as a blessing for Wisconsin Democrats in their unsuccessful bid to take back the state Senate Tuesday. To defeat GOP lawmakers in mostly Republican-leaning districts, Democrats needed their voters to turn out at higher rates than Republican voters. They needed to win the turnout war. And with labor and the left furious over Gov. Walker’s agenda, the potential was there for that sort of intensity gap between the two parties.

But Tuesday’s results suggest that both sides turned out their voters at remarkable levels for a series of stand-alone, mid-summer legislative elections. About 44% of voting-age adults in the six districts combined went to the polls Tuesday, approaching the 49% combined turnout rate in those districts in last year’s race for governor.

The huge political stakes and massive spending and attention on the six recalls decided Tuesday fueled so much interest and passion on both sides that the turnout war was more of a draw than a win for either party. As much as Democrats hate Walker, Republicans love him. The great threat to elected officials facing recall is the low-turnout special election in which their opponents are more motivated to throw them out than their supporters are to come to their defense. The result: a small electorate dominated by the “antis.”

But that wasn’t the story Tuesday. “Everybody voted,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. “Ultimately, that probably hurt. We didn’t have that kind of aggrieved-party advantage (we needed).” He termed the outcome Tuesday a “gain” for Democrats (they picked up two Senate seats) but not a “victory.” Just as happened in 2004 in the 50/50 Bush-Kerry race in Wisconsin and this past April in the 50/50 state Supreme Court contest, historically high turnout signaled equal intensity on both sides, rather than a wave in one direction or the other.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/127456963.html

Interesting story, has data on turnout in recall districts.

[HereSince1628]

1. In a state as polarized as Wisconsin EVERYONE is looking for a fight

and these recalls are opportunities for voters on both sides to do just that.

I suppose a pundit with the numbers could make arguments about how much bang each side got for the $$ spent. It seems that the R's had a lot more money pushed into these recalls than the dems.

[undeterred]

2. Well, we made them spend a ton of money and they lost 2 seats anyway.

Good for our side. :kick: :kick:

[HereSince1628]

4. Yep. And that was just like an extra tax on the Koch bros.

Every penny we take away is a penny that can't be spent later. A million here and a million there and pretty soon we are talking real money...even for the Koch's and Bradley's etc.

[mbob731325]

10. +1

[PeaceNikki]

3. Indeed.

Mother Jones discussed it a bit here: http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/08/wisconsin-recall-poll-jessica-king

[undeterred]

5. This came out today: Sentiment moving against Walker recall

Sentiment moving against Walker recall
Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Public sentiment in Wisconsin is moving against a recall of Scott Walker. Walker though remains very unpopular and if Russ Feingold chose to run against him in a recall election he would find himself in deep trouble. 50% of Wisconsin voters generally oppose a recall of Walker, compared to 47% in favor. Those numbers are flipped from our last statewide poll, in May, which found 50% generally in support of a recall and 47% in opposition. The overall switch comes because independents have moved from slightly in favor of removing Walker from office (50/47) to slightly opposed (46/50) and because 94% of Republicans now oppose recalling Walker, up from 89% on the last poll.

It's not that Walker has become popular all the sudden. His approval rating is still a pretty bad 45/53. Independents disapprove of him by a 44/53 margin. Democrats are more unified in their dislike of him (93%) than Republicans are in their support (87%). But I think there's a certain segment of voters in Wisconsin- somewhere around 10% of the population- that is generally opposed to the concept of recalls regardless of how they feel about how things are going in the state. We've seen that in the State Senate recalls so far- the polls have universally moved in the closing days in favor of the incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. When folks get off the fence they're tending to vote anti-recall. For all that Walker could still be in pretty big trouble though. Russ Feingold would lead him 52-45 in a recall at this stage, taking independents by a 53-43 margin. Despite his defeat last year in an election marked by very low Democratic turnout, Feingold remains decently popular in the state with a 49/43 favorability rating.

Democrats may be dependent on a Feingold candidacy to win though. In May Tom Barrett led Walker 50-43 in a hypothetical rematch of their contest last fall, but now Barrett's advantage is only 48-47. Given the way sentiment has moved against recall in the closing days of these elections I don't think Barrett would beat Walker if he started with only a one point lead. And Walker already has the advantage over two other Democrats that have been mentioned as potential candidates- 47-44 over former Congressman David Obey and 46-43 over sitting Congressman Ron Kind.

A Walker recall is certainly doable, but it's not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination regardless of his continued poor polling numbers. Nationally both Democrats and Republicans claimed victory in last week's recall elections: Republicans because they maintained control of the State Senate and Democrats because they picked up two seats they hadn't been able to win even in the wave election of 2008. When it comes to Wisconsin voters though there's a more stark contrast in reactions. Republicans are pleased with the results by a 73/13 margin. Democrats are unhappy with the results by a 17/64 spread. Clearly for Democratic voters in the state it was a majority or bust.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/sentiment-moving-against-walker-recall.html

[Yon_Yonson]

6. Needless to say my vehicles are running advertisement against Herr Walker

I am seeing more vehicles with RECALL WALKER bumper stickers and that's a good thing. Lets get this RECALL moving ASAP. We are coming for your sorry arse Herr Walker.

:nuke:

[undeterred]

7. like this...

[Yon_Yonson]

8. I've seen this before but it's priceless

[Lifelong Protester]

9. In the next week or so, most public employees and teachers

will be getting reduced paychecks, due to Walker and his crew. I predict renewed interest in the recall when the talk of what is going to happen (taking a pay cut) actually shows up in the pay stub.