Battle for the base: Next year's U.S. Senate primaries in Wisconsin

[undeterred]

By Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel Sept 11, 2011

Most primaries are battles for the “base.” So when the two parties choose their candidates for U.S. Senate next year, Wisconsin’s most partisan, passionate and ideological voters will have their say.

In geographic terms, that means two groups will play a disproportionate role in picking the nominees: for Democrats, the highly motivated, very liberal electorate in and around Madison and Dane County; and for Republicans, the highly motivated, very conservative electorate in the outer Milwaukee suburbs.

The importance of both regions as partisan power bases has grown over the years. The chart below shows the share of the statewide GOP vote that came out of Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee counties in top-of-the-ticket races since 1980:



Thirty years ago, about one in nine Republican votes in Wisconsin came from these three suburban counties. Today it’s approaching one in five.

The second chart shows the share of the statewide Democratic vote that came out of Dane County in top-of-the-ticket races since 1980:



Thirty years ago, about one in 12 Democratic votes in Wisconsin came out of Dane County. Today it’s about one in seven.

What’s behind these trends? Both areas have grown faster than the rest of the state. And voters in both places have grown steadily more lopsided in their partisan preferences.

What does the growing electoral clout of these two regions mean for the 2012 Senate primaries?

more at: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/129626673.html

very interesting article... makes things look good for electing Tammy Baldwin if we pull out all the stops in Dane County :kick:

[elocs]

1. Baldwin delights Progressives & Liberals, I have huge doubts that she can win statewide here in WI.

Wisconsin is more red than it used to be and I don't see a Liberal from Dane county being able to win statewide. One of the big points in having a candidate is having one who can actually win the election, not just make the party faithful joyful.

If Baldwin is the candidate I'm pretty sure I will end up having 2 Republican senators. I'd love to be wrong, but that's reality as I see it.

[mysuzuki2]

2. I think you're right. I'd love to have her in the senate and I will vote for her

if she is nominated. But I don't think I will vote for her in the primary, if she has any real opposition. I wish Feingold would run.

[yourout]

3. +1....same here.

I like her.....I just don't like her chances.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

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[midnight]

5. I think she is just what Wisconsin needs...

[undeterred]

6. We should do everything in our power to support her.

Kind has bowed out and I doubt that Kagen will run. Baldwin is going to be an excellent candidate and a strong fundraiser across the country, from womens groups, gay groups, and liberals. The last thing she needs is people from WI doubting her. This article shows that there is a better chance for someone from Dane County because such a good chunk of the Democratic vote is there.

We need to work really hard for her to GOTV among the Dems - both for Obama and Baldwin - in Milwaukee County and Dane County - and we will make history, electing the first openly gay Senator. And we will be replacing the strong liberal votes of Senator Feingold with the strong liberal votes of Senator Baldwin!