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Edited on Mon Apr-24-06 09:22 AM by Bragi
I think Harper is carefully setting the stage for a conservative majority, bearing in mind that because of the divided centre-left vote in Canada, all he needs to form a majority in the House is the support of roughly 4 out of every 10 voters.
Personally, I think he will get this support by continuing to do what he is already doing: adopting right-wing "populist" policies, and promoting divisive wedge isssues, that he knows will appeal to the substantial minority (about 40 per cent) of Canadians who lean either solidly, or just marginally, right of centre.
Harper will also retain the electoral support of many disaffected Liberal voters who will continue to be influenced by his unending hyper-screeds against Chretien and Martin and the ghosts of Liberals past, which will be echoed and amplified by Layton and the NDP right up to, and during, the next campaign.
So, realistically, I think we should get used to the idea that Harper is likely to be in power for the next 6-10 years, during which time he will be able to foist his right wing agenda on the country, and that the divided, centre-left majority will remain powerless to stop him.
As for those here who think Canadians will turn against Harper because of his Bushian tendency to say "God Bless Canada" at the end of his speeches, I say get a grip.
About the only thing that could stop Harper (other than centre-left strategic voting) would be public revulsion at the carnage in Kandahar. But even with the carnage esacalating, my guess is that the 4 in 10 voters Harper needs for his majority will buy the BS about this deployment being in our national interest, and support his war policies.
If you need evidence that this level of pro-war support can exist in Canada, bear in mind that -- if I recall correctly -- about 4 in 10 Canadians supported Bush at the outset of the war in Iraq.
Also bear in mind that neither the Libs nor Layton will have the balls to adopt a clear antiwar position. Given this, I don't see how antiwar sentiment could electorally swamp Harper.
None of this makes me happy, but I honestly find it hard to be optimistic right now that Harper will fall on his face, or that the centre-left majority will get its act together sufficient to stop the now well-advanced takeover of Canada by the (I think) quite smart and focused leader of Canada's right-wing minority.
Sigh...
- B
P.S. Anyone interested in a thoughtful and knowledgeable account of how the NDP has paved the way for a conservative takeover of Canada should read James Laxer's essay on the subject in this month's Walrus Magazine.
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