Thought I might as well post this here.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/dec/09/stephen-harper-michael-ignatieff-canadaIt was a rather bizarre notion that, in the event the coalition succeeded in bringing down the government and in being asked by the governor general to form a new one, Liberal leader Stéphane Dion would succeed Harper as prime minister. It was Dion, after all, who, having surprisingly slipped into the leadership in 2006, orchestrated the historic and crushing defeat of the Liberals in this past October's federal election. While it may not have been entirely his fault, he has proven to be a poor and deeply unpopular leader, an even worse communicator (witness his shockingly bad video response to Harper last week), and an easy target for the Conservatives, who succeeded during the election campaign both in trashing his proposed "carbon tax" and in destroying his credibility with voters. In contrast to the supposedly steady Harper, Dion was portrayed as too green in two ways: an environmental extremist and an inexperienced and untrustworthy leader. How is it possible that he could lose so badly – winning just 77 of 308 seats and just over a quarter of the popular vote nationally – and then, just a couple of months later, essentially be appointed to replace the man who so soundly defeated him?
There are other reasons for the coalition's apparent unpopularity, not least the fact that it has the formal support of the separatist BQ, without which support it would not be able to muster a majority in the House of Commons, but there is no doubt that Canadians are, on the whole, uncomfortable with the prospect of Dion taking over as prime minister. While a majority of Canadians voted against Harper's Conservatives in the last election, an even greater majority of them voted against Dion's Liberals.
Dion graciously announced yesterday that he will step down once a successor is chosen, likely at tomorrow's Liberal caucus meeting. But then what? Of the two main contenders to replace him, Bob Rae, the former NDP premier of Ontario, has become the de facto leader of the coalition, while Michael Ignatieff, the former BBC commentator, Harvard professor and international relations expert, has distanced himself from it, an early sign of disagreement within the Liberal party and of the likely imminent demise of the coalition. Indeed, while Dion, Rae, and NDP leader Jack Layton have been leading the chorus of support for the coalition, Ignatieff has been positioning himself to be Dion's successor, launching what The Globe and Mail calls "a bulldozer charge at the leadership." (The only other contender, New Brunswick MP Dominic Leblanc, pulled out of the race yesterday and endorsed Ignatieff.)
The party's national executive is set to decide today how Dion's successor will be selected. The party's caucus executive has recommended that an interim leader be chosen as soon as possible and that a new leader be formally installed at a leadership convention in May. This is what Ignatieff wants, and, with the support of 55 of 77 MPs, it is likely what he will get it. The only viable alternative, given that the party wants a new leader in place ahead of the resumption of Parliament late next month, would be for an interim leader to be selected by all party members through a phone and internet vote, a process favoured by Rae.