Poll: Conservative support gains momentum

[Tripper11]

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStoriesV2/20110220/conservative-support-gains-momentum-110221/

I'm Canadian living in the states right now, but like to keep tabs on my home and native land obviously, so I ask why is this?
I read the article, and speaking to family, is it simply that the Liberals don't have a good leader in Ignatieff? What needs to be done to get rid of Harper(Bush light)?

We're hoping to move back to Canada in 2 years and I really hope I don't have to come back to Harper. bleh!

[CHIMO]

1. Tory attack ads pack a punch that leaves Liberals reeling

This just in: attack ads work. I mean really work.

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have the support of 39.7 per cent of Canadians, while Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have dropped to 26.6 per cent, a 13-percentage-point gap, according to a new poll conducted for the Globe and Mail and CTV by Nanos Research.

The news isn’t all good for the Conservatives. Their support is stagnant or declining in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, areas where the party hopes to make gains in an election that could be called within four weeks. But the Liberal support is also stagnant or declining, often at a seriously lower level.

What may matter most is that after weeks of Conservative television attack ads warning voters that the once-itinerant Liberal Leader “didn’t come back for you,” the share of voters who approve of Mr. Ignatieff’s leadership has slumped to 13.6 per cent, slightly behind “none of the above.” NDP Leader Jack Layton’s is more popular, with the approval of 14.3 per cent of voters, compared to Mr. Harper’s comparatively robust 34.5 per cent.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-attack-ads-pack-a-punch-that-leaves-liberals-reeling/article1914858/

[CHIMO]

2. Voters cool to a Harper majority government, poll finds

Despite the attack ads, the cross-Canada photo ops, the spending announcements and the hammer-it-home promise of low taxes and balanced budgets, Stephen Harper just can’t seem to make Canadians welcome the idea of a Conservative majority government.

It’s the price he is paying for demonizing Michael Ignatieff, pollster Nik Nanos says.

Only about 26 per cent of Canadians say they would be comfortable with the Conservatives winning a majority after the next election, according to a new poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV by Nanos Research.

That number is lower than in any other Nanos survey that asked the same question. About 30 per cent are decidedly uncomfortable with the prospect of a Conservative majority, with the rest responding “somewhat” one way or another.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/voters-cool-to-a-harper-majority-government-poll-finds/article1916661/

[CHIMO]

3. Tory lead falls back: EKOS poll

The federal Conservatives' lead over the rival Liberals stands at five points, according to a new survey by EKOS, putting the parties back on a familiar footing after recent surveys showed a much wider gap.

The latest results from EKOS, released exclusively to CBC News, found 32.4 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Stephen Harper's Conservatives if an election were held now, compared with 27.3 per cent prepared to vote for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals.

Jack Layton's NDP had the backing of 14.8 per cent of respondents, while 11.9 per cent said they would vote for Elizabeth May's Green Party. The Bloc Québécois, led by Gilles Duceppe, was at 10.5 per cent. Three per cent of respondents said they would vote for another party.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/02/23/ekos-poll.html
Feb 23, 2011 5:59 PM ET

[CHIMO]

4. Conservatives looking at a majority, new poll shows

OTTAWA—Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are knocking on the door of an elusive majority, helped in part by the growing support of Ontario voters, an exclusive Star poll of more than 6,000 Canadians reveals.

The survey — one of the largest samplings of public opinion in advance of a possible spring election — shows the Conservatives have built a daunting 13-point lead over the Liberals nationwide.

The Conservatives are at 39 per cent, the Liberals are at 26 per cent, the NDP is at 18 per cent and the Green Party is at 6 per cent, according to the latest polling by Angus Reid Public Opinion.

While those numbers are not far off the results of the last election, the large sample size allows a more detailed analysis of how the parties are faring province-by-province. And those numbers show some “important shifts” that would influence an election outcome, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of public affairs for the polling firm.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/945363--conservatives-looking-at-a-majority-new-poll-shows?bn=1

[daleo]

5. It's a poll salad bar

Take your pick, everything's on the menu.

[CHIMO]

6. The latest poll: Tories up, but look who’s down

Today’s Ipsos Reid poll for Postmedia News and Global National puts the governing Conservatives at 43 per cent, up four points from the same pollster’s last opinion survey a few weeks earlier, and nicely into the potential majority band. But at whose expense? Remarkably, the Liberals are up too, by just a couple of points to 27 per cent, since that previous Ipsos Reid poll. It’s the NDP that appears to be hurting—down five points to 13 per cent—along with the Greens—whose support was halved to 5 per cent.

This is, as we inevitably and rightly recite, just a snapshot. But the apparent softness of the NDP and Green vote is worth noting, even if one maintains a healthy skepticism about the predictive value of any poll taken before an election campaign has begun. Back in January, I reported in a short item for Maclean’s that Michael Ignatieff’s winter tour of 20 target ridings was actually premised—according to Liberal strategist I talked with then—on their theory that former NDP voters in those seats could be won over.

Today’s poll suggests that NDP and Green votes might indeed be susceptible to swinging, perhaps in large part out of fear of a Tory majority. But the problem for the Liberals, at least for the moment, seems to be that they are bleeding centre-right support to the Conservatives even as they are picking up left-of-centre backing from the smaller parties. Which formerly Liberal voters are the Tories netting? Mark Kennedy over at Postmedia lists traditional Liberal backers like women and foreign-born Canadians. Not a big surprise, really, and exactly the sorts of voters Sen. Doug Finley, the recently (semi)retired Conservative campaign boss, says his party has been striving to reach.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/01/the-latest-poll-tories-up-but-look-whos-down/

[CHIMO]

7. Conflicting numbers fuel debate over political polls

OTTAWA—A battery of conflicting federal horse race numbers is pouring fuel on a raging debate over the reliability of political polls.

A new poll by Harris-Decima for The Canadian Press added Wednesday to the confusing mix of surveys released over the past week.

It put Tory support at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 28 and the NDP at 15.

The telephone survey of 2,020 people was conducted between Feb. 17 and Feb. 27 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/947710--conflicting-numbers-fuel-debate-over-political-polls

[CHIMO]

8. Conflicting numbers fuel debate over political polls

OTTAWA—A battery of conflicting federal horse race numbers is pouring fuel on a raging debate over the reliability of political polls.

A new poll by Harris-Decima for The Canadian Press added Wednesday to the confusing mix of surveys released over the past week.

It put Tory support at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 28 and the NDP at 15.

The telephone survey of 2,020 people was conducted between Feb. 17 and Feb. 27 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/947710--conflicting-numbers-fuel-debate-over-political-polls?bn=1

[RedSock]

9. yes, ignatieff is worthless

dion had image issues with many voters, but he looks like friggin patton or churchill next to ignatieff

the libs will win absolutely nothing until they dump the torture-loving ignatieff.

[CHIMO]

10. It Is A Parliamentary System

Or, it is supposed to be.

Harper was nowhere near coming to power until the RCMP gave him the in.

As much as we are giving the PMO the ultimate powers, all that is required is to reduce his party by 35% in the next election.

We will then see the previous split between the Reform and the PC's.

We don't need another presidential PM.

Best result would see Liberals and NDP having a majority.