Are we now seeing the last days of Harper?

[Bragi]

I'm starting to think we are seeing the last days of Canada's Harperian nightmare.

Nothing specific, but it's just a sense that the campaign is unfolding sufficiently well for Ignatieff, and sufficiently badly for Harper, that I cannot see any possible majority in Harper's future.

That being the case, especially if H. loses seats, I'm thinking that Ignatieff will soon get the chance to form a government. It may be right after the election, or maybe Harper will hold out as long as possible, and then face defeat in the House.

I'm not taking anything for granted, but right now, I think a minority Liberal government is in our future, with bill-by-bill backing from the NDP and the Bloc.

Which would really be a good thing, far as I'm concerned. I'd love to wave goodbye to Harper as he departs for his new life as a right-wing think tanker/tar sands lobbyist/Fox talking head in Washington.

[mahigan]

1. Seriously premature

As much as I would love to see the end of Harper, I'm afraid there is little evidence to support fantasies to that effect. The polls are basically unanimous in giving the Cons a 10 point lead over the Libs and they haven't changed noticeably in days. Harper just took a big jump on the Nanos leadership index while Iggy took a drop. Greg Morrow at democraticSpace(http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/), whose predictions are highly accurate, has the Cons 50 seats up and he currently has a 60% probability of a Conservative minority government and a 40% probability of a Conservative majority government. With Iggy as leader, I wouldn't put the probability of a Liberal minority any higher than 30% and that is probably generous.

We're one Ignatieff foot in mouth problem from the Cons being in majority territory again while we're Harper being found in bed with a live boy or a dead girl away from a Liberal majority.

[Wibly]

2. Momentum for CONs is downward

The polls show a clear decrease in CON support.
As much as 5% in some.
Unless you're referring to the daily NANOS poll, which is the least accurate of the bunch.
Harris Decima and EKOS both have their projections much lower for the CONs and falling.
The incident where Harper had people removed from his speeches because they were thought to have ties with the Liberals drew immediate negative reaction. On the CBC alone more than 1400 people responded, overwhelmingly negative, in less than 24 hours.
Harper has also repeatedly lied to voters since the campaign began, and most folks seem to be catching on.
It is premature to announce his imminent defeat, however the trends and momentum are definitively pointing towards plunging CON support!

[mahigan]

3. Actually not

I have been following the polling in Canadian elections very closely for many years and the Nanos polls are actually the most accurate not the least. I never use one poll in isolation if at all possible but, if I have to use one, then I use Nanos. Harris and Ekos are not bad but Nanos has consistently been more accurate in election after election and more consistent throughout the campaigns. The least accurate is Strategic Counsel which normally has a Conservative lean. All the polls (except SC) mentioned are showing 9-11 point advantages for the Cons. BTW - democraticSpace averages poll results in their seat forecast. The Cons were up by more about a week or so ago but there has been very little change - within the margin of error - for the last few days. And I only use the tracking polls at his point in the proceedings. Data from a week ago isn't much use in gauging the momentum shifts during a campaign.

Personally, I wouldn't vote for a Conservative if that was the only name on the ballot and someone put a gun to my head but I'll refrain from cheering the demise of the Harpies for another 2 or 3 weeks.

[CanSocDem]

4. Just wait....

...until the Liberals start running their 'slick attack ads'. But I have seen historically Conservative media printing more anti-Harper material than usual. Our liberals in Sk are social democrats so we're going to need an ideological shift....why not, our own premier said we were crazy.


:silly: :silly:

[CHIMO]

6. Interesting

How long have you been tracking the polling in the elections?

And what population and method was Nanos using then?

[Bragi]

5. I disagree completely

And I would put forward my thoughts, and some contrary arguments, but you've already pre-dismissed anything that contests your presumed outcomes as "fantasies", so I don't see much point.

A real pleasure to meet you, though.

[shockedcanadian]

7. Appears like an easy majority for the Conservatives

That what I see from this campaign: voters have looked through numerous and multiple scandals and controversy's without a concern, they are voting as they have over the last few years and the Conservatives will gain a couple of seats from each party to form a majority government.

What I see is that ultimately is that our system will mirror that of the U.S and we will only have two parties from which to choose from.

[Bragi]

8. Ontario battle now a dead heat

The Conservatives are clinging to a six-point lead on the Liberals nationally but the critical gap is closing in Ontario, a new poll shows.

An EKOS-iPolitics survey shows the Conservatives now hold 36 per cent support of decided voters, compared to 28.2 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP stands at 16.1 per cent nationally, while the Greens are drawing 8.8 per cent support.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have 38.7 per cent support, compared to 36.2 per cent for the Liberals.

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/08/conservatives-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-ontario/

[Dawson Leery]

9. Slow buy steady progress for the Liberals.

[Very_Boring_Name]

10. Thank you, I was just about to post this. In the most regionally important areas, its a dead heat

The gap is very quickly closing in Ontario and BC. In Quebec the libs and cons are tied. Nationally the cons are ahead, but much of that is excess from alberta/saskatchewan anyways.