Exciting results

[CHIMO]

Given today on Power & Politics from Environics on the election.

There latest results have Cons at 35%, Libs at 25% and NDP at 25%. Extending this information into seats have the Libs and NDP with 8 more seats than the Cons!

[Metric System]

1. The polls are kind of all over the place. Ipsos-Reid has Cons at 43, NDP at 24 and Libs at 21. That

would be my worst fear- the Cons winning a majority because the left is so split. I really don't know what to believe.

[jdm9955]

6. +1

[iverglas]

7. I don't understand

Where does "the Cons winning a majority because the left is so split" come from vis-à-vis these poll results and predictions?

A plurality again, maybe; sure. I don't get the "majority" bit.

[CHIMO]

2. NDP on track to win 60 seats, poll projects

Jack Layton and his surging New Democrats are poised to see their representation in the Commons increased from 36 to 60 seats, denying the Harper Conservatives their coveted majority, according to a new EKOS Research poll.

The survey, released Thursday, has the NDP tied with the Liberals – 24.7 per cent – while the Tories are at 34.4 per cent nationally. The Bloc is at 6.5 per cent and the Green Party is at 7.8 per cent.

Poll after poll has shown the NDP making significant gains – but this EKOS poll for iPolitics also provides seat projections based on the NDP’s recent and unexpected climb.

They show remarkable gains for Mr. Layton, with the NDP winning 24 more seats nationally and the Tories considerably diminished, not even close to a majority government. Under the EKOS scenario the Tories would see their seat count reduced from 143 to 134; the Liberals would gain five more seats, going from 77 to 82. The Bloc Québécois would lose in Quebec – going from 47 to 32 seats.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

[Metric System]

3. That would be a pretty decent outcome. And there could be a coalition without any BQ support.

[Dawson Leery]

4. KEEP Harper out!

[CHIMO]

5. Anti-Harper voters may be reassessing leaders as campaign nears end

The most recent polls paint a clear picture of the size of the challenge facing the Liberals, but the actual nature of the challenge is subtle and complex. It lies below the surface of the horse race numbers.

Roughly 60 per cent of Canadians don’t want to vote for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. When these folks think there is a chance to replace the Conservatives with another government, some of them will consider voting for a party that isn’t their first choice. This was, of course, the game plan of the Liberals in 2004, 2006, 2008 and lots of times in the last century, too.

However, if these voters conclude they are going to get a Conservative government regardless of how they vote, their thought process may change.

They may become focused on who they want to lead the daily charge against the government, to keep the next Harper government honest.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/bruce-anderson/anti-harper-voters-may-be-reassessing-leaders-as-campaign-nears-end/article1995614/

The pollsters are struggling to come up with reasons. Seems to me that the largest shock has been the NDP in front of the Bloc. They seem to be placing it on a national scale.

I think that they should be starting out in Quebec and then watch the swing in the ROC. Perhaps they just want to be king makers after being out of play for awhile.
Anyway, hope that it might be a replay of the 1962 vote in Quebec.